The Future Of Things To Come

[AlexanderAF]

sorry to say this but "the entire auto industry is finally realizing the market potential of economical cars" is only for the US the biggest part of the world already uses small eco cars for years.
there are only small changes on better mpg and better aerodynamics.

and Toyota really needs to get a small hybrid to compete with the new smaller Honda hybrid.

I did not elaborate that this was for the US market in particular. You are correct!

You are certain about future prices of gas in the U.S.?? Maybe you can say something is likely, but you can't be certain. Gas could easily drop 1.50 a gallon again in the next decade. Seems to me you want prices to be high. Agenda? I don't presume to be certain if you have one or not.

I respect your opinion as that could be a possibility. Perhaps I stepped out of place by saying gas prices 'for certain' will be hilacious. A better way to have stated this would be 'if trends continue, gas prices will be hilacious'. The US could start drilling in the ANWR, the US government could subsidize the cost of gas, maybe talk OPEC into increasing production, or many, many other possibilities. It is not a requirement for me that oil increases to fulfill a personal agenda, it is just that in my opinion the cost of oil will increase changing the US auto market to focus on smaller and more fuel efficient vehicles.

I also read the article that gasoline prices could drop 50 cents per gallon by spring. That is a major possibility, but $3.25-$3.50/gal instead of $3.75-$4.25 to me still isn't cheap.

My prediction that prices will increase (I could be wrong) is based on this: China's and India's economies are emerging and therefore the demand for oil is increasing as supplies hold steady. More and more people from around the world are buying cars, and as a result the supply of oil is being stretched thin. The current state of the US economy is a factor as well, but even a year ago when the economy was well, gas prices were still on the rise at an average rate of 50 cents/year.

Also from my own observation, the price of the barrel increases sharply, then recedes a little only to settle at a cost higher than it was before. Over a long period of time, the average cost of the barrel has only increased. I can't think of any time when the cost of the barrel rapidly declined, and then held at that price (although I could be wrong). There have been events in the past that have influenced the cost of oil to decline, but the oil market adjusts for itself and prices return to normal.

I think oil companies will act in their best interests, even at the expense of others across the world. Do I want gas to cost more? Absolutely not! I am driving a Pontiac GTO right now and I am paying $60 to fill up the tank! Of course I don't want to pay more. But I am also not an optimist, and therefore I do not see this problem of high gasoline prices going away.

The only hope I see to this is to reduce the amount of gasoline I consume. When the time comes for another car (and gas costs what it does now, or more), I will be trading in my GTO for a Toyota Prius or a Honda hybrid. I am hoping auto manufacturers can build me a car to mitigate what I'm paying for gas!!!

[rsforkner]

Originally Posted by AlexanderAF

My prediction that prices will increase (I could be wrong) is based on this: China's and India's economies are emerging and therefore the demand for oil is increasing as supplies hold steady. More and more people from around the world are buying cars, and as a result the supply of oil is being stretched thin. The current state of the US economy is a factor as well, but even a year ago when the economy was well, gas prices were still on the rise at an average rate of 50 cents/year.

>> as a result the supply of oil is being stretched thin.

Only for the reason that supplies are being intentionally kept low. The worlds largest oil producers are limiting production for the purpose of keeping prices high. While all of the reasons regarding increased demand are true, the reasons for the shortage has more to do with limited production than limited supplies or increased demand

FWIW!

Bob

[DeadPhish]

Originally Posted by dallas27

Quote... Either way, the only thing that is certain about the future is that gas will be hilacious. End QuoteReally?


You are certain about future prices of gas in the U.S.?? Maybe you can say something is likely, but you can't be certain. Gas could easily drop 1.50 a gallon again in the next decade. Seems to me you want prices to be high. Agenda? I don't presume to be certain if you have one or not.

Yes no one is certain but one can make rational judgements based on the known ( to us ) facts and trends. I'd feel pretty certain the gas/fuel prices will be hellacious relatively as compared to what they were a couple of years ago.

My own personal predictor is that with slowly growing or diminishing supply of petro-fuel coupled with a growing worldwide population and worldwide development that demand will outstrip supply to the tune of constant price increases over the next 25 years. I'm assuming a nominal rate of 50 cents US per gallon per year. That's almost nothing.....until you look at what the prices will be in the future ( two scenarios )...
$50 / gal ............ 10% increase annually
2007 $2.85 .............. $2.85
2008 $3.25 .............. $3.14
2012 $5.25 .............. $4.60
2016 $7.25 .............. $6.75
2020 $9.25 .............. $9.85
2025 $11.75 ............ $15.85
2030 $14.25 ............ $25.50

This assumes of course that some other massive source of fuel doesn't arise and that we continue in our love affair with the auto. And of course that there are no wars or political disruptions which make all of these 'stable' predictions possible. Throw in a healthy dose of instability and prices can go out of sight in a heartbeat.

[pafoss]

Toyota, can the future please include a solar prius panel option? If it gets an extra 20 miles per (sunny) day, I wouldn't mind forking over a few thousand extra for it.

[rfruth]

HCH vs Prius - about the same result IMO but the HCH blends in where the Prius is the opposite of a Hummer - very aggressive looking, you can spot either one. Can someone look into their crystal ball & tell if this philosophy will hold true for the upcoming models (~2010) ?

[PriusSport]

This scenario won't happen because OPEC won't let it happen. They will lose their market to alternative energy sources. Most of those OPEC reps went to Harvard Business School. They have to take the current speculation out of the price of oil. That will happen.

[DeadPhish]

Here is an interesting graph of fuel / oil prices from GasBuddy.
Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com

Click on 6 yrs ... then overlay the graph of crude oil prices on the fuel prices. There is a HUGE descrepancy between the two over the last 18 months. The Crude Oil price increases are much much too fast in relation to the fuel graph. One or the other has to give.