Effect of 2010 on Resale Value of Existing Priuses?

[Highly ImPriused]

I figured this might be a good topic for discussion and didn't see anything similar on here. I'm a bit concerned about the effect that the release of the new plug-in model will have on the resale value of existing Priuses. If this board is any indication, there will surely be hordes of people lining up to trade in their "old" Prius for the new more fuel efficient plug-in model. This will result in a surpluss of used Priuses on the lots at a time when demand may go down (since there is now a more fuel efficient new model on the market). I imagine the once stallwart resale value of the Prius is likely to drop significantly. I wonder if it will be such an immediate effect that those looking to trade in at the outset would get low-balled on a trade offer? Personally, I'm not overly concerned about it because I don't plan to trade mine in any time soon and will probably drive it into the ground if I can (perhaps after retrofitting with plug-in capability in the future), but the thought did occur to me.

Does anyone know if there was much effect on the Gen 1's when Gen 2 came out? I wouldn't expect to it be as pronounced though since the technology in general was still so new at the time that the resale value probably wasn't as high as it is now. I'd be interested to hear some thoughts on this subject.

[taggart]

It is an interesting question, I agree.

Like you, I will drive mine until it almost dies completely. I've done it with every car I've owned. Drove a 1981 Celica 15 years and a 1994 Quest 14 years, which was traded in for the Prius. I got $2000 for the Celica and $750 for the Quest.

Fine by me. Don't have any use for resale value.

[lob]

I have a 2001 Honda Civic EX and my wife has a 2001 Ford Mustang.

The Civic is worth about twice what the Mustang is worth, judging by what I see on Craigslist and the book values.

There are millions of owners who would happily trade down to the 32/40 I get, real-world, in the Civic.

We are on a waiting list for a 2008/09 Touring - put down $500 deposit on it. We'll sell the Mustang.

I expect Prius values will hold up well. Even if the new Prius gets 30% better mileage than Gen II, the Gen II's are getting 100% or more mileage per tank when compared to the average cars and especially SUVs.

All this is predicated on $4.00/gallon or higher gas. If this turns out to be a bubble, then the premium value attributable to mileage will diminish. As I'm writing this, oil is crossing $140/barrel. I expect prices to stabilize where they are and stay there for some time, as they did in 1972 when the price tripled within a year. It never went back to 30 cents a gallon. Unless something big happens to the average wage, the incentive to drive a high mileage vehicle will continue.

(I'm not expecting one factor in fuel prices, the value of the US dollar, to recover all the ground its lost, either; as a country, we're carrying far too much debt. Someone tell the VP that deficits do matter. )

[pyccku]

I expect there will be a decent market for the used Prius. The people who have money to buy new may well go for the plug-in version, but there will be plenty of people out there who don't ever buy new, or can't afford new, whatever - they will want a more efficient car than what they have now.

I looked at the listings near me for a used 2007 - they are asking about $3-$4 over what I paid for it new, so I'm thinking I'll still have a decent resale value when I need a new vehicle.

Of course, there is more than one way to look at it. If you are the type to trade in every few years and to think of your car as in "investment" you are more likely to be disappointed when trade-in values go down.

But if you keep your car for a longer period of time and look at it as a cost rather than an investment, I think your expectations will be a bit lower on the trade-in values.

[TonyPSchaefer]

I feel that the resale value of the pre-2010 Prii will drop a little. However, there is always a population that can not afford the ~$25,000 for a brand new car.

[Bobwho]

A lot depends on the price of gas. If the price keeps going up then the pre 2o1o prius will hold or increase in value in constant dollars. The real pain of the gas price increase has yet to surface. When NO one can sell their old non-hybrid vehicles due to the price of gas then we may see a jump in price for all hybrids - including used hybrids.

With the price of gas increasing slowly there should not be too much of a drop in the prices of used hybrids no matter what comes out in the way of a PHV.

[john1701a]

Originally Posted by Highly ImPriused

Does anyone know if there was much effect on the Gen 1's when Gen 2 came out?

I got Blue-Book value for my 2001 trade-in when the first 2004 models came out. Years later, I could have sold it myself for quite a bit more!

In other words, the tried & true model will stand strong next to the new model... especially with pretty much nothing competitive available in that used market.

.

[TonyPSchaefer]

I plan on posting mine for sale along with the actual mileage it achieved over its lifetime. If that doesn't help the resale, nothing will:

[pewd]

Originally Posted by pyccku

listings near me for a used 2007 - they are asking about $3-$4 over what I paid for it new

yeah, me too. my 2007 with 25000 miles is (apparently) worth just about what i paid for it new.

very interesting question. highly, if you figure it out... let us know

if we start seeing some after market replacement batteries, this might help - one of the concerns some of my friends have with older used ones is remaining battery pack life. once the warranty is passed if we could drop in a replacement battery for a cheaper price than at present, this should help with resale. much like now you'd be more likely to buy a used conventional powered car that had a fresh top overhaul and a new tranny.
fortunately, DD will be 16 in 2 years ; she'll get the used one ; I'll get a new one {plug in? i'm orginally from missouri - i'll believe it when i can see and touch a plug in model}.

of course , if gas prices 2 years from now are $6-7, then this discussion will be a moot point. that, i suppose, is the real question - will gas prices remain high, or move even higher? or is this a bubble fixin' to pop...

[brad_rules_man]

I made a promise to Tascha that I would drive her into the ground. :P So uh, haha. I do however have plans to possibly trade in two other vehicles that are pretty much garaged for the Chevrolet Volt if it turns out to be a viable product. Most of my travel is under 50 miles and if I can do that full electric I am in. I would like the new Prius to be a full electric drivetrain with a generator or something, but they aren't planning that too soon.