New '09 or '10? In a buying dilemma

[dominicsavio]

My dealer called to let me know that my '09 Prius has arrived and selling at MSRP.

What I am wondering now is, is it better to wait till the '10 model comes out (just ~7 months)?

So far, dealers have been milking consumers and taking advantage of the situation because of low supply and high demand. I have hated every bit of this arrogance (although I think the Prius is a fantastic car - my wife owned two before we got married but this is *our* first one).

My thought is that mid to late next year may be a much better time to buy a Prius (or in fact any hybrid) because (a) Toyota increases production hence more supply hence less waiting time if any + more choices of trim levels (b) more supply of used Prius (pretty much non existent on craigslist at the moment) (c) Increased competition by Honda Insight which would exert downward pressure on prices (at least a bit) on at least used Prius..

Any experience/expert advice on this line of thinking?

[Santiago]

I played some of your "mental decision processes" and just bought an 09 Touring. Just having the ICE kicked from 1.3 to 1.8 in 10 isn't going to buy anything other than more gas consumption when the ICE is running unless they make it more efficient. I had an Acura RSX Type-S that got 210 HP out of 2.0 Liters and city mileage of 27-30 MPG. That is the kind of efficiency that the ICE needs in 10 and it isn't going to get it. I would suspect that the same basic design is in the works, just more displacement. The issue with a 10 vs. 09 for mileage improvement will be with the battery technology and I haven't heard any definite word that improved batteries will be available. You may be right with pressure from other hybrid offerings and the Volt but they may all be hard to get if gas starts its upwards spiral again.

Not necessarily perfect wisdom but at least my 2 cents.

[Betelgeuse]

There's going to be a lot of "should I buy or should I wait" discussion over the next few months. I think your reasoning sounds pretty good, but I also think a similar argument could be made the other way. I could argue that there is going to be lower stock of the Prius next year because the demand for the new model is going to be so high. I can definitely see some people wanting to "upgrade" to the newer model. I think that your comment about increased pressure from other hybrids (especially the Insight) shows some. . . eh hem. . . insight. However, I think the short version of the story is that no one really knows at this point. My guess, however, is that it's going to be hard to buy a Prius under MSRP before the end of 2009; I think the demand is too high right now and I think there will also be big demand for the new model.

[dominicsavio]

These are all valid points and there's obviously clear answer yet. I have the utmost respect for the Prius but I'm just thinking of the financials (assuming I am flexible with the timing of my purchase, which I am):

1) By mid to late next year, there will just be more hybrids available - for e.g.
a)

I am also thinking in terms of purchasing *any* hybrird (which of course would be new+us

[dominicsavio]

oops, my earlier thread posted before I completed typing (quick fingers ). But here is what I was saying anyway:

I am just thinking of the financials (assuming I am flexible with the timing of my purchase, which I am):

1) By mid to late next year, there will just be more hybrids available - for e.g.
a) More used Prius because more people would presumably want one of the newer hybrids (Insight or '10 Prius) [the thing about Insight starting at a lower price is a whole different thread)
b) Toyota increases production by quite a bit --> will again lead to more supply
c) This will result in consumers being able to either buy a new Prius absent the ludicrous premium/arm-twisting by dealers such as premiums etc and/or buying a used one
d) which of course will mean that the value of a new Prius bought today would depreciate relatively more compared to what the situation as been till now

Keep in mind that I have the utmost respect for the Prius and am aware of its user satisfaction as being the highest. But from a financials + timing prespective, I cant help but think about this

For e.g. over the past summer, as supply was tight, dealer's arrogance was through the roof. By now, it has eased a bit already (I already have had 3 dealers call me with unsold Prius' on their lots) and I only think this would ease out even more through next year...

Any thoughts?

[Betelgeuse]

I think that, if you're flexible on the timing, it makes sense to wait. I've said that I don't think the demand-to-supply ratio is going to go down tremendously, but I also don't think it's going to go up much. I think that there is growing interest in hybrids but, as you pointed out, there are new hybrids coming to market and Toyota is ramping up production.

One of the things I'm a little concerned about with the Prius is that there are some rumors that it's going to be a bigger car. Now, that may be a benefit for some, but for a lot of people, the current Prius is big enough (see the threads on "how much can you fit in your Prius"). If you don't need a larger car, you may want to consider the Insight. I think that Toyota and Honda are equally good car companies, so I'm hopeful of great things from the new Insight. It's also supposed to be cheaper, which could be a really good thing.

EDIT: Ah! And one more thing! For 4+ years, there has been no true competitor to the Prius for people who want a hybrid sedan that gets great mileage. I think it's going to be a great thing for consumers when the Insight comes out; the Toyota dealers are going to know that you can go down the street and buy an Insight from the Honda dealers, which should give more power to the buyers.

[richard schumacher]

Pay a deposit for one now and it will arrive in seven months. Problem solved :_>

[joe1347]

At this point, waiting seems to make more sense - especially given that the Prius will finally have some real competition (i.e, the Honda Insight). Toyota dealers will likely have to deal a little more next spring if the Honda is as inexpensive as promised. Also, the current Gen II Prius has been around since late 2003, one would think that the Gen III will be a significantly better car for around the same price.

[JimN]

Originally Posted by dominicsavio

My dealer called to let me know that my '09 Prius has arrived and selling at MSRP.

What I am wondering now is, is it better to wait till the '10 model comes out (just ~7 months)?

So far, dealers have been milking consumers and taking advantage of the situation because of low supply and high demand. I have hated every bit of this arrogance (although I think the Prius is a fantastic car - my wife owned two before we got married but this is *our* first one).

My thought is that mid to late next year may be a much better time to buy a Prius (or in fact any hybrid) because (a) Toyota increases production hence more supply hence less waiting time if any + more choices of trim levels (b) more supply of used Prius (pretty much non existent on craigslist at the moment) (c) Increased competition by Honda Insight which would exert downward pressure on prices (at least a bit) on at least used Prius..

Any experience/expert advice on this line of thinking?

The 2009 Prius just arrived in September or August. I don't believe you'll find a 2010 next May. Hot cars sell for MSRP. Chrysler dealers made money on the PT Cruiser and Volkswagen dealers made money on the New Beetle for awhile. Increases in production & competition will lower prices if demand is constant. Gas prices over time will increase which will increase hybrid demand. You may find a buying price sweet spot in a couple of months or so but nobody knows what will happen a year from now.

[DeadPhish]

Originally Posted by dominicsavio

My dealer called to let me know that my '09 Prius has arrived and selling at MSRP.

What I am wondering now is, is it better to wait till the '10 model comes out (just ~7 months)?

So far, dealers have been milking consumers and taking advantage of the situation because of low supply and high demand. I have hated every bit of this arrogance (although I think the Prius is a fantastic car - my wife owned two before we got married but this is *our* first one).

My thought is that mid to late next year may be a much better time to buy a Prius (or in fact any hybrid) because (a) Toyota increases production hence more supply hence less waiting time if any + more choices of trim levels (b) more supply of used Prius (pretty much non existent on craigslist at the moment) (c) Increased competition by Honda Insight which would exert downward pressure on prices (at least a bit) on at least used Prius..

Any experience/expert advice on this line of thinking?

I think that 7 months is very optimistic. Yes the new 2010s are supposed to lineoff in April but I think that we won't see them until June or July in any quantity. Ready availability? IMO next Aug-Oct.

If the Gen 3s are similar to the Gen 2s then the 'Prius Pioneers' will get first crack at the first ones to come here. Those buyers will receive a special email invitation to place an order directly with Toyota ( via their local dealer ) which will arrive before everyone else's.

Then volume has to be ramped up to meet what will likely be a HUGE prelaunch interest list. On these threads I've heard of waiting lists on the 2010s already. These waiting lists have to be extinguished before there is the 'normal' 4-12 week waiting period.