Where you going to run to?

chogan2 · 07-20-2008, 11:10 PM

At some point, the whole global warming thing, it's just Darwinian. It's not even worth trying to have a discussion. Whatever action we do or don't take as a society is independent of the discussion here. We make our choices and prosper or not.

So, for this thread, let's just abandon the non-believers and their offspring to the fate they deserve, and concentrate our efforts on prosperous survival. You guys who think that global warming's a scam, or that it'll be a wonderful new world, just keep away please.

Suppose you were living in the US and had to plant yourself and your family somewhere for the next century. All things considered -- global warming, peak oil, sagging dollar, you name it -- where would you go?

In other threads here, the Pacific Northwest has been suggested as a good place -- lots of rainfall, plenty of hydro electric, and so on. I have a Canadian buddy from grad school who suggested the Sunshine Coast, which is north of there. Myself, a US East Coaster, I'm thinking upstate NY/Finger Lakes. Well watered, civil people. I like Virginia's Northern Neck, but over the intermediate term (couple of centuries, say) it's too low-lying to be viable if the shoreline becomes unstable, as may be likely over that time span. And I have to say that if I had to pick a place based on the civility and intelligence of the people I know from there, Minnesota would be highest on my list. (Plus, in the US, it's well established that the farther north you go , the smarter the people are on average, at least in terms of test scores. And I say this as a lifelong Southerner).

Far as I can tell, none of the serious climate scientists will make projections of (e.g.) rainfall by region. So I don't see a heck of a lot of hard data relevant to the decision.

Anybody care to chime on on where you'd go, and why?

doubleg2005 · 07-20-2008, 11:12 PM

alaska. or Moscow.

it's cold. for now.

Bill Merchant · 07-20-2008, 11:55 PM

There have been some local studies which suggest the Pacific Northwest will fare better than other regions, based on the factors you mentioned. Warming will change the plant species which grow, particularly on southern slopes, but lumber trees will continue to grow on the north side.

One hazard of the PNW, unrecognized by many, is geologic: vulcanism and subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate.

icarus · 07-21-2008, 10:45 AM

You think with ~400 million people in N. America, and X billions world wide, there is anywhere you will be able to "run"? Run to find your bucolic setting safe and free from the travails of the "non believers"? Dream on!

No where,,,repeat, no where will be comfortable. The S.W US is already "stealing" a great measure of Rocky Mountain water. Plans for the rocky Mt. trench water system to move water from B.C and Alta to CA are on many drawing boards. Food shortages, energy shortages,,,resource shortages of many kinds will make no one safe!

The faster we all disavow ourselves that somehow we are special, and deserve to have it better than the rest of the world, the faster we might respond to what I believe to be a looming crisis, and do something to prevent it, rather than make it better for ME!

You think for one minute if you have a happy life in upstate NY, or the Sunshine coast, the hoards of unwashed from starving urban centers such as BO-Wash, Eugene-Vancouver won't be beating down the door to get theirs? (At least metaphorically!)

Icarus

tripp · 07-21-2008, 12:15 PM

Somewhere other than where I live now. The East is expected to be wetter. The West drier. Canada would be the place, but not too far. One aspect of a warmer earth will be lots of snow up there, which will impact the growing season, amongst other things.

dragonfly · 07-21-2008, 02:08 PM

Thanks for starting this thread chogan2! I've been thinking about this for a long time. I agree the PNW has been at the top of my list. We have family on both sides there fortunately. I think there is one thing that will become more and more important, and that is community. Globalization will become localization and we will come to depend on each other more and more. Wherever you end up, get to know your neighbors, learn how to work together and look out for each other. We will need experts in growing food, nutrition, medicinal plants, water reclamation, hunting, survival, etc. I started a garden this year for the purpose of learning how. I've got a nice setup here in So Cal (the only fossil fuel I still use is natural gas which I plan to phase out, and I drive my Prius about once a month) but the problem in the long run is of course water. Since you mentioned the sagging dollar, I've also transitioned my retirement and other savings into safer places.

The best place to be I think is Willits, CA. That town has it figured out.

tripp · 07-21-2008, 02:14 PM

Water won't necessarily be scarce. I think we're going to see the deployment of desalination plants on a massive scale. The real question is where are we gonna get the energy for that. However, the only real obstacle is cost because there's loads of clean energy to get had. For a while it will just cost more.

dragonfly · 07-21-2008, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tripp

Water won't necessarily be scarce. I think we're going to see the deployment of desalination plants on a massive scale. The real question is where are we gonna get the energy for that. However, the only real obstacle is cost because there's loads of clean energy to get had. For a while it will just cost more.

I hope so but I've given up on waiting for the government or anybody else to come along and solve my problems. I've decided that energy independence and self-sufficiency starts with myself. I now have 3 water barrels to make as much use of rain water and reclaimed water as possible. I think the problem has gotten too big to wait for somebody else to come along and solve it.

tripp · 07-21-2008, 02:23 PM

That's true to some extent, but unless you're going to go hide in the woods, you preparedness will be for nowt. A collapse of society will swallow you too because the strong (most guns) will take what you've got.

That said, what you're doing is wise because you're learning skills and setting up a cushion to soften the blow of a nastier environment.

dragonfly · 07-21-2008, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tripp

That's true to some extent, but unless you're going to go hide in the woods, you preparedness will be for nowt. A collapse of society will swallow you too because the strong (most guns) will take what you've got.

That said, what you're doing is wise because you're learning skills and setting up a cushion to soften the blow of a nastier environment.

That's the choice we're faced with. The Mad Max scenario, or the Cuba scenario. I do believe it's a choice and that the more we can do to ease the transition, the likelier we are to have the Cuba outcome. It starts with community. Hiding in the woods is the opposite of what I have in mind.

Here is a great article on Willits, my heroes:
http://www.metroactive.com/papers/so...lits-0532.html

07-20-2008, 11:10 PM	#1
chogan2 Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Virginia Posts: 313 My Car: 2005 Prius Package: #4 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 2	Where you going to run to? At some point, the whole global warming thing, it's just Darwinian. It's not even worth trying to have a discussion. Whatever action we do or don't take as a society is independent of the discussion here. We make our choices and prosper or not. So, for this thread, let's just abandon the non-believers and their offspring to the fate they deserve, and concentrate our efforts on prosperous survival. You guys who think that global warming's a scam, or that it'll be a wonderful new world, just keep away please. Suppose you were living in the US and had to plant yourself and your family somewhere for the next century. All things considered -- global warming, peak oil, sagging dollar, you name it -- where would you go? In other threads here, the Pacific Northwest has been suggested as a good place -- lots of rainfall, plenty of hydro electric, and so on. I have a Canadian buddy from grad school who suggested the Sunshine Coast, which is north of there. Myself, a US East Coaster, I'm thinking upstate NY/Finger Lakes. Well watered, civil people. I like Virginia's Northern Neck, but over the intermediate term (couple of centuries, say) it's too low-lying to be viable if the shoreline becomes unstable, as may be likely over that time span. And I have to say that if I had to pick a place based on the civility and intelligence of the people I know from there, Minnesota would be highest on my list. (Plus, in the US, it's well established that the farther north you go , the smarter the people are on average, at least in terms of test scores. And I say this as a lifelong Southerner). Far as I can tell, none of the serious climate scientists will make projections of (e.g.) rainfall by region. So I don't see a heck of a lot of hard data relevant to the decision. Anybody care to chime on on where you'd go, and why?

07-20-2008, 11:12 PM	#2
doubleg2005 Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Kilgore, TX Posts: 238 My Car: 2007 Prius Package: #3 Touring Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 3	Re: Where you going to run to? alaska. or Moscow. it's cold. for now.

07-20-2008, 11:55 PM	#3
Bill Merchant absit invidia Join Date: May 2005 Location: USA \| Oregon \| Portland area \| 97004 \| Posts: 3,951 My Car: 2007 Prius Package: #5 Nominated 6 Times in 1 Post TOTM Awards: 1 Friends: 52	Re: Where you going to run to? There have been some local studies which suggest the Pacific Northwest will fare better than other regions, based on the factors you mentioned. Warming will change the plant species which grow, particularly on southern slopes, but lumber trees will continue to grow on the north side. One hazard of the PNW, unrecognized by many, is geologic: vulcanism and subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate.

07-21-2008, 10:45 AM	#4
icarus Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: quetico, on/bellingham, wa Posts: 555 My Car: 2007 Prius Package: #7 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	Re: Where you going to run to? You think with ~400 million people in N. America, and X billions world wide, there is anywhere you will be able to "run"? Run to find your bucolic setting safe and free from the travails of the "non believers"? Dream on! No where,,,repeat, no where will be comfortable. The S.W US is already "stealing" a great measure of Rocky Mountain water. Plans for the rocky Mt. trench water system to move water from B.C and Alta to CA are on many drawing boards. Food shortages, energy shortages,,,resource shortages of many kinds will make no one safe! The faster we all disavow ourselves that somehow we are special, and deserve to have it better than the rest of the world, the faster we might respond to what I believe to be a looming crisis, and do something to prevent it, rather than make it better for ME! You think for one minute if you have a happy life in upstate NY, or the Sunshine coast, the hoards of unwashed from starving urban centers such as BO-Wash, Eugene-Vancouver won't be beating down the door to get theirs? (At least metaphorically!) Icarus

07-21-2008, 12:15 PM	#5
tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it? Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 3,724 My Car: 2005 Prius Package: #3 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 2	Re: Where you going to run to? Somewhere other than where I live now. The East is expected to be wetter. The West drier. Canada would be the place, but not too far. One aspect of a warmer earth will be lots of snow up there, which will impact the growing season, amongst other things.

07-21-2008, 02:08 PM	#6
dragonfly Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,899 My Car: Package: Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 1	Re: Where you going to run to? Thanks for starting this thread chogan2! I've been thinking about this for a long time. I agree the PNW has been at the top of my list. We have family on both sides there fortunately. I think there is one thing that will become more and more important, and that is community. Globalization will become localization and we will come to depend on each other more and more. Wherever you end up, get to know your neighbors, learn how to work together and look out for each other. We will need experts in growing food, nutrition, medicinal plants, water reclamation, hunting, survival, etc. I started a garden this year for the purpose of learning how. I've got a nice setup here in So Cal (the only fossil fuel I still use is natural gas which I plan to phase out, and I drive my Prius about once a month) but the problem in the long run is of course water. Since you mentioned the sagging dollar, I've also transitioned my retirement and other savings into safer places. The best place to be I think is Willits, CA. That town has it figured out.

07-21-2008, 02:14 PM	#7
tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it? Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 3,724 My Car: 2005 Prius Package: #3 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 2	Re: Where you going to run to? Water won't necessarily be scarce. I think we're going to see the deployment of desalination plants on a massive scale. The real question is where are we gonna get the energy for that. However, the only real obstacle is cost because there's loads of clean energy to get had. For a while it will just cost more.

07-21-2008, 02:23 PM	#9
tripp Which it's a 'ybrid, ain't it? Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 3,724 My Car: 2005 Prius Package: #3 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 2	Re: Where you going to run to? That's true to some extent, but unless you're going to go hide in the woods, you preparedness will be for nowt. A collapse of society will swallow you too because the strong (most guns) will take what you've got. That said, what you're doing is wise because you're learning skills and setting up a cushion to soften the blow of a nastier environment.