Man Based Global Warming....

[ufourya]

Originally Posted by Alric

Please try to limit the conversation to peer-reviewed research articles. Ex cathedra opinions only add to the confusion.

Who elected you moderator of the thread?

I'll post what I wish, as you yourself do.

In the meantime keep those blinders on, you wouldn't want to have a stray opinion ruin your neat little fantasy.

I always thought ex cathedra meant 'with authority'. Have the post-modernists changed that as well?

You don't need a peer review to know that 2+2=4, or that CO2 is not a pollutant, or that anyone who takes Al Gore for a more important voice than Burt Rutan (when it comes to an honest assessment of AGW) is intellectually deficient - or ideologically calcified.

[ufourya]

Burt Rutan: engineer, aviation/space pioneer, and now, active climate skeptic

16 08 2009
Burt Rutan - aviation pioneer, engineer, test pilot, climate skeptic. Note the car.

[ufourya]

University of Rochester team to publish paper taking a new, closer look at observed data in regard to ocean heat:
Changes in Net Flow of Ocean Heat Correlate with Past Climate Anomalies : University of Rochester News

...The team believes that the oceans may change how much they absorb and radiate depending on factors such as shifts in ocean currents that might change how the deep water and surface waters exchange heat. In addition to the correlation with strange global effects that some scientists suspect were caused by climate shifts, the team says their data shows the oceans are not continuously warming—a conclusion not consistent with the idea that the oceans may be harboring "warming in the pipeline." Douglass further notes that the team found no correlation between the shifts and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

Related to this story: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Time Series from the University of Washington, seen below. ...


Monthly Values for the PDO Index, January 1900 to September 2008. Positive (red) index values indicate a warm phase PDO; negative (blue) index values indicate a cool phase PDO. While short-term flips in PDO phases do occur, evaluation of 20th century instrumental records has shown that PDO phases generally persist for 20-30 years, as indicated in this figure. To download the data, see Nate Mantua’s PDO page.

[richard schumacher]

If one of Rutan's creations crashes because of a design error would that change your estimation of his opinions on climate change? (Perhaps I should say "when": for example, his implementation of the hybrid motor and its plumbing is not very fault tolerant. Transients in the motor can propagate back into the N2O tank and cause a rupture and explosion.)

Citing yet another scientist-wannabee engineer as an expert decreases one's credibility. Carry on.

[Alric]

Originally Posted by ufourya

University of Rochester team to publish paper taking a new, closer look at observed data in regard to ocean heat:
Changes in Net Flow of Ocean Heat Correlate with Past Climate Anomalies : University of Rochester News

...The team believes that the oceans may change how much they absorb and radiate depending on factors such as shifts in ocean currents that might change how the deep water and surface waters exchange heat. In addition to the correlation with strange global effects that some scientists suspect were caused by climate shifts, the team says their data shows the oceans are not continuously warming—a conclusion not consistent with the idea that the oceans may be harboring "warming in the pipeline." Douglass further notes that the team found no correlation between the shifts and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

Related to this story: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Time Series from the University of Washington, seen below. ...


Monthly Values for the PDO Index, January 1900 to September 2008. Positive (red) index values indicate a warm phase PDO; negative (blue) index values indicate a cool phase PDO. While short-term flips in PDO phases do occur, evaluation of 20th century instrumental records has shown that PDO phases generally persist for 20-30 years, as indicated in this figure. To download the data, see Nate Mantua’s PDO page.

It escapes me how is this related to global warming. No one to my knowledge has proposed that short timescale shifts in ocean temperature are a consequence of increased CO2 or global warming.

[TimBikes]

You guys are still arguing on this thread? LOL. By the time you stop five years from now, it will be clear to all that the global warming scare was nothing but hype. It is already clear to most people who give it some rational thought. ;-)

[ufourya]

Originally Posted by Alric

It escapes me how is this related to global warming. No one to my knowledge has proposed that short timescale shifts in ocean temperature are a consequence of increased CO2 or global warming.

It is the warmists who, in an attempt mitigate the recent cooling trend's implication to their theories, claim there is 'warming in the pipeline' and that that warming is a result of man's CO2 emissions.

I am niot at all surprised that you are incapable of seeing the correlation.

[ufourya]

Originally Posted by richard schumacher

If one of Rutan's creations crashes because of a design error would that change your estimation of his opinions on climate change? (Perhaps I should say "when": for example, his implementation of the hybrid motor and its plumbing is not very fault tolerant. Transients in the motor can propagate back into the N2O tank and cause a rupture and explosion.)

Citing yet another scientist-wannabee engineer as an expert decreases one's credibility. Carry on.

This man has managed to put a privately owned craft into space and build the first aircraft to fly non-stop around the world and he's a wannabe engineer? In addition, his house nas been called the most energy-efficient on the planet. I'd certainly give him more credence than a rank hypocrite such as AlGore.

How about viewing his PowerPoint presentation and pointing out where he is wrong? I'm betting you've seen and been impressed by 'An Inconveniet (Un)Truth'. You might learn something and increase your own credibility.

As usual those with nothing to add make ad hom attacks in lieu of countering facts. Carry on.

[ufourya]

Say, you don't think that 'real' climate scientists would cherry-pick data to bolster a claim of unusual warming, do you?

Svalbard's Lost Decades

by Hu McCulloch on August 17th, 2009

In a 2006 article in JGR, Aslak Grinsted, John Moore, Viejo Pohjola, Tonu Martma and Elisabeth Isaksson study several climate indicators from the Lomonosovfonna ice field in Svalbard, shown below with their caption:
Figure 5. Fifteen-year moving averages of Lomonosovfonna ice core data. (a) Oxygen isotopes, (b) continentality proxy (A), (c) stratigraphic melt indices (SMI), and (d) washout indices (solid line is W_NaMG, and dashed line is W_ClK).
They conclude,

In the oldest part of the core (1130-1200), the washout indices are more than 4 times as high as those seen during the last century, indicating a high degree of runoff. Since 1997 we have performed regular snow pit studies [Virkkunen, 2004], and the very warm 2001 summer resulted in similar loss of ions and washout ratios as the earliest part of the core. This suggests that the Medieval Warm Period [Jones and Mann, 2004] in Svalbard summer conditions were as warm (or warmer) as present-day, consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction of Moberg et al [2005].

Although the Svalbard ice core record extends back to 1130, a 2009 paper in Climate Dynamics, by Grinsted and 3 of the same authors plus Macias Fauria, S. Helama, M. Timonen, and M. Eronen, utilizes the same ice core record to infer winter sea extent, yet omits the distinctively "warm" first 7 decades of the record. It concludes, "The twentieth century sustained the lowest sea ice extent values since A.D. 1200."
My question for Dr. Grinsted and any of his co-authors who might drop in is, why did the first 7 decades of the core disappear between 2006 and 2009? Is it because they contradict the IPCC/AIT line that there was no MWP to speak of?
The 2006 paper has already been commented on by World Climate Report, while the inconsistency of the 2009 paper has already been noted by Steve McIntyre on Climate Audit.
Dr. Grinsted does occasionally visit CA, and contributed several helpful comments clarifying his smoothing algorithm on the 7/3 thread The Secret of the Rahmstorf 'Non-Linear Trend Line'.
BTW, has the Lomonosovfona core data ever been archived? I gathered from Steve's post that it has not.
I might add that Craig Loehle and myself (see Loehle 2007, Loehle and McCulloch 2008) have reconfirmed the existence of a MWP, using twice as many proxies as Moberg et al. Craig selected the proxies and did the smoothing, while I contributed standard errors to the 2008 correction, showing that the MWP and LIA were both significant relative to the bimillenial average. We did not use Lomonosovfona, but it could be a useful addition to future such studies, if calibrated to temperature and archived.

[Celtic Blue]

ufourya sure is full of himself. I've got him on ignore but well over 50% of the posts on each of the last several pages are from him. It's ironic since he is perhaps the most willfully ignorant poster here.