Global Warming "On Hold" due to unidentified factor

[TimBikes]

Interesting article here regarding projections of global cooling for the next 30 years:

"This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn't have one."...

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years...

Of course, there is still the usual gloom and doom that is to be expected:

...he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

So it seems that although the data shows cooling, the author is simply speculating about future warming resulting from CO2 since he acknowledges the 1997/98 "super El Nino event" that, it is obvious to anyone with a brain, likely contributed to most of the late 20th century observed warming instead of CO2.

Oh - and don't forget - "the science of climate change is settled". ;-)

[fuzzy1]

While this article doesn't name it, I wonder if the speculated 30 year cooling trend is part of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is thought to be entering a cooling phase right now, and has contributed (along with the lingering solar cycle minimum) to two consecutive cold winters in my area:

Pacific decadal oscillation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Pacific_decadal_oscillation

But I don't think this is a good time to talk about a paused GW in front of any Aussies, at least until their incredible fire season ends.

[TimBikes]

Originally Posted by fuzzy1

While this article doesn't name it, I wonder if the speculated 30 year cooling trend is part of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is thought to be entering a cooling phase right now, and has contributed (along with the lingering solar cycle minimum) to two consecutive cold winters in my area:
Pacific decadal oscillation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But I don't think this is a good time to talk about a paused GW in front of any Aussies, at least until their incredible fire season ends.

I think PDO is going to get a lot of attention over the next couple of years. Global temperatures have closely tracked PDO warm / cool phases. It is a much more correlated factor with global temps than CO2. However, i don't believe there is a clear understanding of what drives these PDO phases.

[malorn]

Originally Posted by TimBikes

Interesting article here regarding projections of global cooling for the next 30 years:

"This is nothing like anything we've seen since 1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn't have one."...

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years...

Of course, there is still the usual gloom and doom that is to be expected:

...he warned that it's just a hiccup, and that humans' penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us.

So it seems that although the data shows cooling, the author is simply speculating about future warming resulting from CO2 since he acknowledges the 1997/98 "super El Nino event" that, it is obvious to anyone with a brain, likely contributed to most of the late 20th century observed warming instead of CO2.

Oh - and don't forget - "the science of climate change is settled". ;-)

So the planet was cooling from 1940-1980, and is starting to cool again but man is making the climate warmer overall. That is science?

[Shawn Clark]

Not really an interesting article. It belongs in that other garbage thread.

[malorn]

Originally Posted by Shawn Clark

Not really an interesting article. It belongs in that other garbage thread.

Why is that article garbage because it comes to uncomfortable conclusions?

[nerfer]

Originally Posted by Shawn Clark

Not really an interesting article. It belongs in that other garbage thread.

I disagree. I'm an affirmed environmentalist (altho I don't like labels), but I find this very interesting.

We're currently at a minimum in solar activity (measured by sunspots), actually well overdue for the next 11-year cycle to start, and this has some effect on weather. By that alone, we should be cooler than normal right now. The Maunder Minimum (very little sunspot activitiy) is credited to causing the lowest temperatures during the Little Ice Age. The last cycle peaked about 2001, which was one of the hottest years in the record books.

A new sunspot was sighted in November, possibly starting the next solar cycle.
Here's a tongue-in-cheek opposing view of the influence of sunspots. Humorous, but not entirely accurate, IMO. Obviously there's a lot more out there about this, I tried to find a good chart, but it's hard to sift thru all the sites.

[Shawn Clark]

Originally Posted by malorn

Why is that article garbage because it comes to uncomfortable conclusions?

I didn't describe it as garbage, but the other thread.

It does belong in that denialist thread though. There isn't much purpose to having a bunch of silly denial threads. Y'all spin new theories every few days depending on which way the wind is blowing.

[nerfer]

Originally Posted by Shawn Clark

I didn't describe it as garbage, but the other thread.

It does belong in that denialist thread though. There isn't much purpose to having a bunch of silly denial threads. Y'all spin new theories every few days depending on which way the wind is blowing.

The last few years have not warmed according to theory. A year or two is not a big deal when you're talking about a long-term climate change, but this is becoming an issue that needs to be resolved, in order for climate science to take itself seriously. I'd like to see what happens after the solar cycle starts cranking back up, theoretically later this year. In the meantime, I'm enjoying the cool respite.

If there's any legitimate science that contradicts some common beliefs, it's worth investigating. However, there's been so many contradictory theories, most of which are unsubstantiated and not well thought out, I can see where a person would get tired of continually investigating claims.

[viking31]

Originally Posted by Shawn Clark

Y'all spin new theories every few days depending on which way the wind is blowing.

I was kind of thinking the same with regards to the AGW crowd getting more and more desperate/creative on trying to convince the public on AGW when world temps have stalled (well, actually just 'regular temps' for us ole' timers) for nearly a decade despite no real change in mankind's habits regarding the use of fossil fuels and such.

Bundle up, you have snow and temps down to the mid 20's in your Chicago forecast for next week...

Rick
#4 2006