Zenn again!!

[daniel]

Originally Posted by Fibb222

Where we differ: EESUs, if real will create an explosion in decentralized power generation. Electric Utilities will be weakened substantially when every property owner can cheaply store their own power from solar, wind, etc.

Invest in companies building decentralized electric generation infrastructure!

Actually, I think that is seriously a good bet. But I would not buy stock in just one company, because, as noted above, in an emerging technology many companies will fail. Maybe find a good mutual fund in alternative power infrastructure (wind turbines, PVs, etc.)

[Fibb222]

Originally Posted by daniel

Invest in companies building decentralized electric generation infrastructure!

Actually, I think that is seriously a good bet. But I would not buy stock in just one company, because, as noted above, in an emerging technology many companies will fail. Maybe find a good mutual fund in alternative power infrastructure (wind turbines, PVs, etc.)

You're right about many companies will fail. There were dozens of TV manufacturers in the 50s and by the 60s there were a handful.

I'm hoping my PBW ETF PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy(ETF) - Google Finance
will capture at least of few of the big winners.

[DaveinOlyWA]

i think BP will thrive. and ultracaps will probably be MUCH more expensive than AGM's.

i think the pricing will end up to be around 50% of comparable Lithium which still makes then a spendy upgrade. but keep in mind, in a small car, they will go 250 miles, in a bigger car, less. in full sized vehicles there will probably be two in many application (heavy duty, work vehicles, etc) but cost will limit that market. so charging stations will still be needed.

i think it would not be a great leap for BP or anyone else to change over. after all the basic premise is still there. drive up. park, hook up and charge. now out of all this, the 3-5 minute recharge time is what i have the most doubts about. 52 KWH of power is a lot to transfer. would it be necessary for all passengers to exit the vehicle for safety reasons? etc...

now in the post above, there was an analysis of this application to semi's and the numbers are staggering. there is where the real benefit would be realized. even in a $100,000 EESU investment, the payback would only be a few years. but that would not happen until charging stations were installed to support the trucks.

so, that is going to take 2-3 years even with major government backing. granted the money will be obvious and the private sector would need help to get thru the red tape and initially at least, all the diesel saved will need to be converted to fuel oil for the increased electricity demand which in turn will put more emphasis on putting in wind and solar. with EESU's, storage of energy from these sources will no longer be an issue.

this technology wont only revoluntionize the transportation industry, it will change nearly every aspect of our lives. we could carry around personal devices with much higher capabilities that are currently hampered by power consumption issues verses size and weight.

[daniel]

Speculation is fun, but it's all still just speculation until we know:

1. If u-caps will actually hit the market in sufficient numbers.

2. What will be their real energy density in terms of both weight and size.

3. What they will actually cost.

My friend, who is an authorized Zenn repair man, claims to have heard from Zenn that they will cost between AGMs and floodies, but I think your estimate of half as much as lithium makes more sense, since at first, with availability limited by production facilities, market demand will be a bigger factor than production cost, in determining cost to the consumer. But again, this is all just speculation, and will mean nothing if they fail to develop means of mass production.

[Fibb222]

I do still have concerns about the power transfer being too high even though the EESU can apparently handle it. BP might have a role to play in a world of EESUs but their business case isn't anywhere near as compelling IMHO.

The contract price from EEStor to Zenn is apparently about $100-150 per kWh not including the electronics. But let's not forget that's for a device that does not for all practical purposes wear out.

Again, as Daniel says, we can only wait and see. Watching this story unfold is an amazing show.

[DaveinOlyWA]

ok. 10 K for EESU and control circuitry will keep the cost under $30,000. i am pretty sure that fast charging capability will be an additional premium on that. (Zenn would be foolish to not price that higher at least at first)

for the most part, i would get an EV with EESU, (slow charging would be just fine) and look at $10-15 K for a conversion on my 2010 Pri. (slow charging would still be JUST FINE) and i am set.

for the 8 times in the last 12 months that anything approaching 200 miles in a day was needed, i will then do the "unthinkable" and burn gas.

besides, even if EESU's were out today, it will be better than a year before one of these "fast charging" stations would be around and i strongly suspect, unless i am living in So. Cal, it will be much longer than that for my area.

now with CA budget situation, it will be a tough call. converting to EESU's would save them a TON of money in fuel costs even with much higher electricity rates. but the initial cash outlay (something they do not have) will be the sticking point.

the west areas where open land is widely available will be booming, generating abundant power cheaply then selling it for profit will be a new business model.

[daniel]

Originally Posted by Fibb222

... let's not forget that's for a device that does not for all practical purposes wear out.

We don't really know that, either. The dielectric in a capacitor is under tremendous electrical pressure. This will be a new dielectric that's not been tested over time. It is possible that there may be no limit to charge-discharge cycles, but that the dielectric may degrade over time, leading to catastrophic failure when it can no longer support the voltage between the plates.

Originally Posted by DaveinOlyWA

... and look at $10-15 K for a conversion on my 2010 Pri. (slow charging would still be JUST FINE) and i am set.

for the 8 times in the last 12 months that anything approaching 200 miles in a day was needed, i will then do the "unthinkable" and burn gas. ...

The Prius is the worst possible choice for conversion to pure EV since you'd be throwing away a lot of technology to get an aerodynamic donor car.

And remember that the Prius only goes up to 42 mph in electric mode, and will deny EV and start the ICE if you apply more than a feather touch to the pedal.

For a car that you can use as a pure EV 357 days a year up to 200 miles, and burn gas on the 8 days you need to go farther, you need a series PHEV like the Volt supposedly would be if they ever built it.

Fast-charging will require extremely heavy cabling, but otherwise nothing special in the car. Better Place may find a niche providing charging stations. But their business model (sell the car cheap but require a contract for the miles) will be in competition with stations that simply sell electricity and do not tie you to one company.

[Fibb222]

Originally Posted by daniel

We don't really know that, either. The dielectric in a capacitor is under tremendous electrical pressure. This will be a new dielectric that's not been tested over time.

I can't say with certainty but the rumour has it that components have been tested over a millions cycles.

[BlueIce]

I read an acticle in a online engineering trade magzine about the Cermic batteries. The operating tempature is currently a problem up to 600° F and they are working on a unit to bring down the operating temperature to 200°F for comsumer use. Lowering the temperature rating will most likely bring down the charging rate.

I will try to find the article and post the link.

[Fibb222]

Originally Posted by BlueIce

I read an acticle in a online engineering trade magzine about the Cermic batteries. The operating tempature is currently a problem up to 600° F and they are working on a unit to bring down the operating temperature to 200°F for comsumer use. Lowering the temperature rating will most likely bring down the charging rate.

I will try to find the article and post the link.

Those must be a different beast from EESUs of EEStor.