Global Warming Is Not A Crisis

[TimBikes]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(tripp @ Mar 20 2007, 02:27 AM) [snapback]408830[/snapback]</div>

Tim, you're a right bastard. I just read the entire transcript and it's well after 2 AM.
First off: Why the hell were Michael Crichton and Brenda Ekwurzel on this panel? Neither of them offered anything relevant to the discussion.

One thing I did find interesting is that the whole thing was framed as "Is GW a crisis" instead of "is anthropogenic global warming real". It would seem that there was consensus among panelists that we are indeed increasing global avg temps. There were many references to humans having an impact on the climate past and present. Hence the rephrasing of the question. Which is fine. Progress perhaps.

I think Philip Stott was spot on when he warned about this becoming a political power grab, using GW as a political tool to manipulate folks and he's right the that Europeans have been disingenuous. There's the potential for grave ecological damage from overdoing biofuels. He mentions that too. Of course, that doesn't speak to the issue at hand, but they were points worth mentioning.

I think that the risk management approach is the best one. True, we don't know precisely the magnitude of the risks, but considering that decarbonization of the energy mix solves so many issues (not just environmental ones) we'd be foolish not to pursue it. That doesn't mean that we go "14th century" either. What we need is balance and an understanding of the problems at hand.
[/b]

A bit late on my reply here Tripp, but you are always "spot on"! The framing of the question is of course key - but it does coincide with my particular perspective. GW is real, but not a crisis. But I, like you, support reasonable efforts & approaches to wean ourselves from fossil fuels.

As for all of the other comments - man, did this topic go astray!

[mikej83]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Mar 20 2007, 08:19 AM) [snapback]408872[/snapback]</div>

Could someone please tell me how changing to CFLs, reducing fossil fuel use, driving a Prius, expanding wind and solar energy use, and reducing CO2 productiong could "only make thing[s] worse".
[/b]

You asked, so, while probably not ideal, but certainly interesting food for thought, here you go:

Some prominent scientists have suggested that we can reduce the effects of global warming by increasing the amount of particulate matter (AKA, pollution) into the atmosphere. This "pollution" will reflect some of the energy from the Sun, and thereby cool the Earth, potentially enough to effect "Global Warming." Of course there are numerous problems with this solution, but it does answer your question I think.

On another note: I wonder how many people really understand why climate change concerns us. The impression that I get from people is that they really believe that warming itself is a Bad Thing. I don't think people understand that we humans like these interglacial (AKA warm) periods, and that in all likelihood we are at the peak of our current interglacial. Unfortunately, they are not as stable as the glacial (AKA ice age) periods, which is potentially right around the corner.

The only question I see, is can humans have enough effect on the environment to accelerate us into a glacial period or initiate a runaway greenhouse gas effect... Or maybe we'll luck out and the answer to both those questions is no, and it will still be another 1000 years or so before we begin the next glacial period.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(dbermanmd @ Mar 20 2007, 10:09 AM) [snapback]408912[/snapback]</div>

i do NOT hate algore - i feel sorry for him, he is sooo pathetic. if he were not born into a wealthy family he would probably in, according to johnkerry, in Iraq

Him creating positive change - lets see - HE HAD 8 FEAKEN YEARS IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND DID WHAT?

Now that he wants to angle back in there, or he wants some headlines, he creates an issue for himself that touches the correct buttons - and amazing enough - does not follow his own advice and even owns the carbon company he buys credits from - HOW IRONIC - SUCH A LOOOOOSER.

i am not concerned about algore - he has enough money for lifetimes - he is just missing the supratentorial portion of life. so sad, he could have followed in kennedy's footsteps (he would have to be alert and agile for that ) and done something besides the weight gain.

it is just tooo easy - and to think the dems ran him for president - ooopha - did we all get lucky there. God does intervene in mysterious ways.
and you take algore seriously :P at least Crichton is self-made, a VERY successful author, a med school graduate, very smart guy. algore is :

self made: N
smart: ?
successful author: ? successful movie producer - Y - non-fiction, hot button topic of the year
algore - proof that inheritance outways environment and nuture and nature
[/b]

For you, I highly recommend a Google search on "Ad Hominem," I think it would be very beneficial for you. Until then, I'd recommend self-censorship.

[TimBikes]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(MikeJ @ Mar 21 2007, 12:07 AM) [snapback]409435[/snapback]</div>

Some prominent scientists have suggested that we can reduce the effects of global warming by increasing the amount of particulate matter (AKA, pollution) into the atmosphere. This "pollution" will reflect some of the energy from the Sun, and thereby cool the Earth, potentially enough to effect "Global Warming."
[/b]

Actually, this is an interesting point. Whereas particulate that came with CO2 output in the past may have offset much of the CO2 warming potential, I've seen some speculation that the well intentioned (and successful) efforts to reduce particulate pollution have likely caused CO2 emissions to have a greater climate impact than they otherwise would have.

[vuapplepudding]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(TimBikes @ Mar 20 2007, 01:52 AM) [snapback]408824[/snapback]</div>

Of course this neither proves nor disproves whether Global Warming is in fact a crisis, but does show that members of the audience found merit enough in the "it's not a crisis argument" to be swayed to a more skeptical position.

[/b]

TimBikes,

This topic sure did open a bag of emotions and opinions which I respect openly.

To bad we went so quickly into bashing.

Is this a crisis for HUMANS?

IF crisis is defined as needing an "immediate" change (decision), then this might be NO for most of us since many of us will die within the next 50+ years.

Now ask the question: "is SOCIAL SECURITY in the USA in CRISIS?", you might get a stronger response since most US people will experience the reduced future benefits if not any benefits.

For our next 2 - 3 generations, even though unborn, they might care about GW issue. Since we humans are at the top of the food chain, we might want to pay attention to the lower creatures. I want to applaud those who see the impact that temperature can have on other animals (polar bears, alligators, etc). Even though these animals are insignificant to us since they have no direct impact on our daily lives. There might be other things we are not aware about that can effect us.

(Now a little Sci-fi for entertainment value) Let's now say that insects and rodents rule the land because the middle creatures have relatively disappeared. Now add on all the mutated bacteria and viruses that these lower creatures can carry. Add on Antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria and you now have TOP of the FOOD CHAIN issues (Crisis now eh?).

Let's take into the account the CO2 levels affecting the plant life.
Could you imagine what would happen if native corn plants were over run by some other species of wild plants that survive readily in the higher CO2 levels (lots of research on this proving that Nebraska native prairie grass is being replaced by "foreign" species of grasses . No food on my Great-great-grand children's plates might make me consider GW a crisis.

As for Al Gore, I have not love or hate for the man. I do have to say that if anyone can get people to make a "positive" change in any direction, that is great. Gore was at Wal-mart's company meeting, I hope he can help Wal-mart change they way they themselves and their vendor's deal with environmental practices/compliance.

Additional example, if Bill Gates wants to help find a vaccine for HIV and other diseases, that is great. I'd have to say go Bill do your thing! Reducing human suffering and death ... I'd say this is a good thing.

I sure hope that there could be more of us in the USA that at least try to better the world. Maybe this might make the rest of the world hate us less.

Buying a PRIUS might not make any impact, but I'm trying to do something by making the auto makers rethink their line-up of vehicles though increase sales (hybirds & potential electric) and /or lost sales (gas guzzlers).

Nice to see everyone fired up about the topic. For or against, it keeps it at the top of things to keep on the radar.

[TimBikes]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Hard_working_student @ Mar 21 2007, 01:07 AM) [snapback]409449[/snapback]</div>

TimBikes,

This topic sure did open a bag of emotions and opinions which I respect openly.

To bad we went so quickly into bashing.

Is this a crisis for HUMANS?

IF crisis is defined as needing an "immediate" change (decision), then this might be NO for most of us since many of us will die within the next 50+ years.

Now ask the question: "is SOCIAL SECURITY in the USA in CRISIS?", you might get a stronger response since most US people will experience the reduced future benefits if not any benefits.

For our next 2 - 3 generations, even though unborn, they might care about GW issue. Since we humans are at the top of the food chain, we might want to pay attention to the lower creatures. I want to applaud those who see the impact that temperature can have on other animals (polar bears, alligators, etc). Even though these animals are insignificant to us since they have no direct impact on our daily lives. There might be other things we are not aware about that can effect us.

(Now a little Sci-fi for entertainment value) Let's now say that insects and rodents rule the land because the middle creatures have relatively disappeared. Now add on all the mutated bacteria and viruses that these lower creatures can carry. Add on Antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria and you now have TOP of the FOOD CHAIN issues (Crisis now eh?).

Let's take into the account the CO2 levels affecting the plant life.
Could you imagine what would happen if native corn plants were over run by some other species of wild plants that survive readily in the higher CO2 levels (lots of research on this proving that Nebraska native prairie grass is being replaced by "foreign" species of grasses . No food on my Great-great-grand children's plates might make me consider GW a crisis.

As for Al Gore, I have not love or hate for the man. I do have to say that if anyone can get people to make a "positive" change in any direction, that is great. Gore was at Wal-mart's company meeting, I hope he can help Wal-mart change they way they themselves and their vendor's deal with environmental practices/compliance.

Additional example, if Bill Gates wants to help find a vaccine for HIV and other diseases, that is great. I'd have to say go Bill do your thing! Reducing human suffering and death ... I'd say this is a good thing.

I sure hope that there could be more of us in the USA that at least try to better the world. Maybe this might make the rest of the world hate us less.

Buying a PRIUS might not make any impact, but I'm trying to do something by making the auto makers rethink their line-up of vehicles though increase sales (hybirds & potential electric) and /or lost sales (gas guzzlers).

Nice to see everyone fired up about the topic. For or against, it keeps it at the top of things to keep on the radar.
[/b]

I respect your opinion - we should all strive to make the world a better place via our actions. However, I still am not swayed that this is a "crisis" even 50 -100 years from now. Even the latest IPCC report has reeled in their projections of sea level rise and temp. increase from the earlier TAR. I suspect we are looking at temp. increases at the low end of the IPCC scale (~2 degrees C) and also the same low end with sea-level increases. At present, sea levels are rising on the order of 2-3mm / year of which most, to my understanding, is not anthropogenic. Clearly if one believes Gore instead of IPCC we would have a crisis (10 degrees C and 7 meters sea level rise). Fortunately for us all, these sort of changes are beyond the realm of scientifically plausible - though I suppose they make for a good movie. We will have changes for sure. Crisis, I'm not convinced.

PS - I should note I harbor no ill will toward Gore, just using him as a most visible example of the "crisis" mentality.

[Wildkow]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rainydysandmondys @ Mar 20 2007, 04:09 PM) [snapback]409227[/snapback]</div>

I'm slightly confused as to how dbermanmd managed to get through med school with such poor typing skills. "algore" and "johnkerry" are not names. I think you meant to say "Al Gore" and "John Kerry", as both are proper nouns regardless of your personal views towards them. Also, the "Shift" key on your keyboard is placed in a strategically convenient location for a reason. When an online forum is your chosen medium of communication, it would serve you well to present your posts in a more professional matter if you want people to take you seriously.
[/b]

All right we got us another Spelling/Grammar Nazi! Welcome to Priuschat!

Wildkow

p.s. Don;t sweat the small stuff rainy unless you really want to show everyone how plugged up and elitist you've become.

[KMO]

Grow up, Wildkow.

[larkinmj]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(KMO @ Mar 21 2007, 08:09 AM) [snapback]409473[/snapback]</div>

Grow up, Wildkow.
[/b]

All right we got us another Maturity Nazi!