A frightening prediction of our oil crisis

[Robert Taylor]

Anyone ever read the full Moby Dick?

The chase for the great white whale begins by Herman Melville telling us about how important the work of the whalemen is to America. They are the men who provide the finest means whereby the lamps of America are lit. The oil from the sperm whale is the finest by which to use in the lamps that light American business and homes! It is work of the highest order, to bring that energy from the sea to be used to illuminate the dark.

If not for the Whalers, America would be a dark place.

Well, oil production is maxed out. And we are on the backside of the curve and it has to get more expensive. Just as before, there are alternatives. People will learn to conserve. Just because cheap oil encouraged waste doesn't mean that people world wide won't conserve more as the cost goes up. They will.

Just who needs a 3500 square foot house for three?

A 6,000 pound car for one?

75 degrees of heat in the winter?

I remember when things were made of steel. And plastic bags were unknown. Paper and glass can be made in abundance.

Oil can be made from coal, which is abundant.

So, some of this article is true, but the lack of sperm oil is not hurting America, is it?

Yes, change is here.


But, the sky is not falling, we may be entering an era of sensible conservation and forced innovation. Better days may well lie ahead.

This change from fossil fuels is it good or bad?

Put me down as good.

I welcome the trend, it could be seen coming, I got a Prius. Conservation is a higher priority. Bad or good? Think about it.

Edit:

furthermore, the article mentions extreme lag times on bringing other sources of energy production along. This is nonsense. We could build 50 nuke generating plants a year in short order if we put the national will to it. Any comparison to the nation's output in WWII and this articles extreme time scales for creation of new products, energy supplies shows that these quoted time scales are wrong.

What will change?

Long commutes to work

exurbs and suburbs will reverse growth and cities will be revitalized, the wealthyin the center and the poor on the outskirts. This is the way all cities were until cheap oil came along and changed this. It will revert. So what?

Setbacks required by zoning laws. The idiocy of requiring that every home be so many feet away from the neighbors is a cheap energy postWWII bit of nonsense that has to come to an end. Population density will go up. So what? Lots of festering problems will get some attention when the wealthy move back to town.

There are some upsides to go with the pain.

[jayman]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ssmithri\";p=\"84284)</div>

I am trying really hard to figure out how Rush and the neocons will make this the Democrat's/Clinton's fault. [/b]

Hmmm?

I put equal blame on both parties. Since the problem of Peak Oil has been known about for a very long time now, all we have accomplished is to defer the problem to future generations.

Dr. Hubbert of Shell predicted this way back in 1956, and rather than deal with the problem back then, we instead pursued cheap sources in unstable middle east nations. In hindsight that was a boo boo.

I'm sure there are many folks out there who believe the Earth is Flat, or at the very least filled with that creamy center of magically renewed oil. These folks will cling to their cherished beliefs in the impossible until it truly becomes impossible.

What we're dealing with isn't so much that we've used up the very last drop of oil, but rather the end of easily exploited sources of oil. There is plenty of oil waiting in the Athebasca Tar Sands in Alberta, but it costs way more than $1-$2 out-of-ground like it does in Iraq or Saudi Arabia.

A huge wild card in the oil debate is China, which has a booming economy and a critical shortage of oil. At what point are we willing to go to war with China? Iraq was a pushover, very easy. China has nukes and - more importantly - they know how to use them.

So as far as pointing fingers, lets point a finger at every Republican, Democrat, business owner, and voter out there: we're all responsible for this mess. I say we work together to fix it.

[Hytec]

Robert Taylor, well said!

The challenge is that thinking and informed individuals who understand the consequences, and who buy Prii, must drag their elected officials, kicking and screaming, into understanding what you have stated....or convince more informed persons to run for office. Personally, I prefer the latter... :clap:

[jayman]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Hytec\";p=\"84323)</div>

The challenge is that thinking and informed individuals who understand the consequences, and who buy Prii, must drag their elected officials, kicking and screaming, into understanding what you have stated[/b]

I like doing that. Am I allowed to boot them a few times too? Problem is the entire political scene is one of Lowest Common Denominator.

[Hytec]

Jayman, don't forget India in this equation.

Between China and India, they represent more than half of the world's population who are willing to do just about anything to become as well off as the US protrayed itself as being over the past 50-100 years! The majority of low cost merchandise is manufactured in China by low-cost labor, and the majority of advanced technical support is provided by Indian engineers.

The sad thing about arrogant people is that they generally get severly burnt by those who resent being continuously put down those arrogant people.

[skruse]

Politicians FOLLOW the lowest common denominator, politicians do not LEAD. Any time someone attempts to break out of the pack and lead, the others nip at the temporary leader's heels. It takes an extraordinary leader to hold the pack together as support and not as advisaries.

[Hytec]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(jayman\";p=\"84327)</div>

I like doing that. Am I allowed to boot them a few times too? Problem is the entire political scene is one of Lowest Common Denominator.
[/b]

I think the alternative will be more productive.....we are having local elections next week and there are some well qualified non-politicians on the ballot. Fortunately we have an increasing number of young, educated individuals who have become sufficiently fed up with the status quo that they are willing to get involved...Thank God!!!!

I support them absolutely, but I don't envy their upcoming battles with the Press, NIMBYs, and Nay-Sayers.

[yoda]

Wow - Reading all the posts, I can't help but selfishly bring the whole topic down to how it affects ME.

Good points - More conservation being required doesn't necessarily mean that things will get worse. Aren't WE (Prii drivers) a perfect example of this?

My Prius uses 1/4 (or possibly less) fuel than my old Trans Am did. But my decision to get one CERTAINLY didn't make my life WORSE. NO - I love my Prius and all it's technical wonders. My life is BETTER with this car which is more conservative on resources.

Ok - Hybrids may not solve the problem - but they are certainly a step forward AND an example of how technology WILL allow us to conserve AND improve our living situation.

Rock-On Prius - we don't need to waste gas/oil.

8)

Yoda

[Robert Taylor]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(yoda\";p=\"84346)</div>

Wow - Reading all the posts, I can't help but selfishly bring the whole topic down to how it affects ME.

Good points - More conservation being required doesn't necessarily mean that things will get worse.  Aren't WE (Prii drivers) a perfect example of this?

My Prius uses 1/4 (or possibly less) fuel than my old Trans Am did.  But my decision to get one CERTAINLY didn't make my life WORSE.  NO - I love my Prius and all it's technical wonders.  My life is BETTER with this car which is more conservative on resources.

Ok - Hybrids may not solve the problem - but they are certainly a step forward AND an example of how technology WILL allow us to conserve AND improve our living situation.

Rock-On Prius - we don't need to waste gas/oil.

8)

Yoda
[/b]

Right on, Master Yoda!

A quick review of what actually kills large numbers of people in the past:

disease Half of Europe died twice from the black death

78,000 years ago a volcano that spewed 9 inches or so of ash world wide killed most all humans off.

Note that global warming isn't a threat to mankinds survival. We have the technical ability to make every desert bloom by water conversion salt to fresh water, using power from nuclear plants that generate more fuel than what they consume. We can make all the electricity we need from nuclear power. Drawbacks? Yes, but we already know how to do this. We can run every device, trains, small cars, even now on just electricity. We won't starve over oil running low or demand pushing the price up.

Painful transistion? sure, for many. Better life without so much fossil fuel consumpion and pollution? Most likely.

And I don't feel pained from my Prius either.

[timmsumm]

I've heard it said a few times: if every American drove a car as efficient as the Prius, we would not need to import ANY oil.

The author of this article makes it very clear that very small percentage changes in supply/demand make armagedon inevitable.

By buying/driving/loving a Prius now and creating this attention and interest for more efficient transportation, perhaps we are starting the 'revolution' that is necessary for the ordinary public to change the way all Americans (and maybe the world) think about gasoline consumption. We just need to wait for that '100th monkey' to jump on the bandwagon and change the tide...