A frightening prediction of our oil crisis

[DaveinOlyWA]

great article... but as alarming as his predictions are, lets face it, he is stating the obvious.

his timeline might be off a bit, but the rest of the predictions are spot on. we are kidding ourselves if we think that this level of comsumption will go on forever. i have seen peak oil predictions ranging from 1998 to 2010. well, i think that it will happen in that time and then we be in trouble since its obvious that the oil companies are not spending money to look for alternatives to energy. they are going to ride it out as long as they can then take the money and retire on the stockpile of cash they have left.

[gaulfinger]

Great thread.

Realistically, it will take much more than hybrids to curb our taste for imported oil. The US imports about 55-60% of its oil today, depending no what sources you find on the web. And transportation uses about 2/3 of the engergy we consume. So that would mean we would have to eliminate ALL cars to eliminate imported oil.

But what if we combine hybrid efficiency with other energy sources? The biodiesel hybrid? Ethanol? Solar and other electric generating stations with hyrids that plug in for some of their power?

Combine these with some of the creative (but more expensive oil substitutes noted above) and we can make a significant dent in the importation... It's going to be an interesting ten years coming up.

Ultimately, other substitutions will also happen: increased telecommuting, small neighborhoods organized around old town principles of having most common services located within walking distance, the return of public transportation, relocation of large offices from downtown to suburban offices closer to employees' homes. etc.

If anything needs to change it's our national attitude that we should pursue more oil at all cost instead of investing in these things now and being free from the tyranny of oil-driven domestic and foreign policy.

Sorry, I'm getting too politcal. I'll stop now... suffice it to say I'm proud of my fellow Prius owners for supporting an important step towards energy enlightment!

Gary

[Robert Taylor]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(skruse\";p=\"84331)</div>

Politicians FOLLOW the lowest common denominator, politicians do not LEAD. Any time someone attempts to break out of the pack and lead, the others nip at the temporary leader's heels. It takes an extraordinary leader to hold the pack together as support and not as advisaries.[/b]

Whether you agree with his actions or not, Bush has lead on the war on terror and the forced culture change of the Middle East. He alone is responsible for our invasions of Afgahnistan and Iraq, the elections there, the inspiration given to others to force change, the Syrian withdrawal. Against all opposition he has forged ahead and imposed change where naysayers said it couldn't be done. Bush held the pack together in an election which was a referendum on his policies. He won re-election.

And I admit to having been one of the naysayers, the doubters, someone who has consistently misunderestimated Bush. Who was the genius who came up with the idea of making voters dip the forefinger into an ink well to vote? Eight million Iraqi defied Al Quada and voted, all proclaimed for a week the indelible mark to side with freedom and western ideals of government. Those ink stained forefingers marked the point at which Bush's policies were rendered obvious to all. It inspired the Lebanese to move against their occupying oppressors and Bush told Assad to go. When President who wages war with mighty army on your border gives a commandement, it is obeyed by the wise, so Assad is packing up.

If Gore were president, he would still have Janet Reno seeking a way to obtain a warrant to arrest bin Laden, who would be leading victory parades down the main street of Kabul.

[Robert Taylor]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(DaveinOlyWA\";p=\"84445)</div>

great article... but as alarming as his predictions are, lets face it, he is stating the obvious.

his timeline might be off a bit, but the rest of the predictions are spot on. we are kidding ourselves if we think that this level of comsumption will go on forever. i have seen peak oil predictions ranging from 1998 to 2010. well, i think that it will happen in that time and then we be in trouble since its obvious that the oil companies are not spending money to look for alternatives to energy. they are going to ride it out as long as they can then take the money and retire on the stockpile of cash they have left.
[/b]

Agree somewhat.

Do some google work on "the devil's excretment". Many economists have come to the conclusion that easily aquired great wealth does terrible damage to a nation, and easily pumped oil fits that bill. The situation is akin to Spain in the days of the Treasure fleets when the America's were looted for the benefit of Madrid. When the looting stopped, so did the might of Spain. They became addicted to the easy wealth. The USA is NOT in the position of Saudia Arabia, Norway, etc. where the wealth is being squandered on a vast scale. The USA was rich before oil even became a fuel.

[Robert Taylor]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(timmsumm\";p=\"84438)</div>

I've heard it said a few times: if every American drove a car as efficient as the Prius, we would not need to import ANY oil.  

The author of this article makes it very clear that very small percentage changes in supply/demand make armagedon inevitable.

By buying/driving/loving a Prius now and creating  this attention and interest for more efficient transportation, perhaps we are starting the 'revolution' that is necessary for the ordinary public to change the way all Americans (and maybe the world) think about gasoline consumption.  We just need to wait for that '100th monkey' to jump on the bandwagon and change the tide...
[/b]

Rising fuel costs are creating the demand for more Prius than what Toyota can produce, that along with the quality of the product. There are other fuel saving cars, but none nearly as nice. The market craves the Prius, I think Toyota could sell 20,000 a month easily if they could build them. I know someone who bought a camry because they couldn't get a Prius. This is happening everywhere, people would buy a Prius but the avaliable supply to buy is too low.

Demand has run well ahead of all expectations. Don't believe me? Just ask G.M. management.

[DaveinOlyWA]

well i hate to say it, but bush invading iraq just stems the flow of oil money that was ignoring a nation of impoverished people and was primary source of income to fund terrorism. ya saddam spent a lot on himself but a huge chunk went to terrorism. in fact after very optimistic estimates of saddams expenditures, analyst come up with the inevitable conclusion that either he squirreled away 750 billion in hidden swiss accounts (something most assumed but has now been proven to be false... he did put away about 9 billion or so) or spent the money to fund terrorism... the latter is nearly impossible to quantify, but everyday more and more evidence is uncovered

[Che]

two fantastc sites for statistics and general information on petroleum in the USA are as follows:

www.eia.doe.gov
www.fedstats.gov

[thorn]

Politicians FOLLOW the lowest common denominator, politicians do not LEAD. Any time someone attempts to break out of the pack and lead, the others nip at the temporary leader's heels.  

Actually my local Congressman gave a presentation on Peak Oil on the floor of the house:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html


[web:145649481d]http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html[/web:145649481d]


Also for another 20 mins:
http://www.energybulletin.net/5519.html


He is scheduled to talk again this weds night (10pm+)

At least someone in Congress knows what's going on and is trying to do something about it. Maybe alittle hope??

[jaguaraja]

I predict a hollywood movie will be created to portray such a scenario. It'll be one of those world disaster type films. I can picture it now.

Scientists discover that their calculations were wrong and that there is just 1 year's worth of oil remaining, cost of gasoline spikes to $50/gal, people start hording food, unrest spreads across the world.

Then in some secret underground government facility, a new technology for clean energy creation is near completion. During the year it took to finish the project, the world is in ruins. Small groups of people have survived by working together. Group/clan wars erupt frequently to obtain any remaining resources.

After completion of the clean energy project and it's release to the world, we realize what we've done. We were our own destructive force. Pushing our ugly destructive sides behind us, we move forward to rebuilding civilization using clean energy. The End!

Hollywood...call me 8)

[jayman]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Robert Taylor\";p=\"84503)</div>

Many economists have come to the conclusion that easily aquired great wealth does terrible damage to a nation, and easily pumped oil fits that bill.[/b]

The old saying of "easy come easy go" comes to mind.

Ever know anybody who won or inherited a lot of money? I've had the luck (?) of knowing several folks who either inherited or in one case won substantial amounts.

More than enough that if wisely invested they could have "retired" at 28 and taken up gardening or whatever.

With no exception, within a handful of years it was all gone. Completely p***** away to the point they lost everything.

Have you ever known anybody who has really applied themselves, worked their a** right off? Since every dollar was by the sweat of their brow, they tend to enforce prudent fiscal restraint. Least of their worries is trying to impress the neighbor or society in general.

In the larger sense, the cheap oil and cheap credit of the 60's and again the 90's came at a very high price. Nothing is free or really cheap, you always end up paying for it down the road.

So it looks like the consequences are finally catching up to us. The only people truly shocked by this inescapable outcome are those who were wrapped up in the oil/credit binge.