A frightening prediction of our oil crisis

[jaguaraja]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

[Frank Hudon]

interesting read. Not a very nice long term view. Long as in a few years.

[rookie]

Yeah... indeed... the bad thing about it is - its only a matter of time really. Hm...

[jayman]

I really don't think you should be surprised about the article, although I suppose a lot of folks who believe in "getting something for nothing" may find the conclusions either shocking or flatly unbelievable.

My parents are old: my dad is 85 and my mom is 79. They clearly remember The Great Depression and also have some sad predictions for me. They realize quite well that their generation will benefit most from things like Old Age Security and Pension Plans.

They feel sorry for me because they know I'll never see one penny of Old Age Security or a Pension Plan. Folks my age and especially younger will have to accept a *declining* standard of living.

First of all, we went off the Gold Standard a very long time ago. The 1945 Brettonwood Conference (Brettonwood NH) sealed our collective fates and the end result was inevitable.

Many assumptions have been ignored by average folks:

1. The concept of an "expanding" economy is only possible with more energy use and more consumption

2. The concept of an "expanding" economy is only possible with deficit spending.

Of course deficit spending is not just done by governments, and the availability of cheap credit has encouraged many to become indebted far beyond their ability to recover. If easy credit had never been made available, our economy would be far more sensible - and far smaller too - than it is now.

I disagree with some comments made by that article that Europe will somehow be a safe haven from the inevitable economic collapse: there will be *no* safe haven. Many third world nations experience regular economic collapses, I wonder how we will react when it happens to us?

I definitely agree that widespread famine will result from such a collapse. When you figure how much of our agriculture is dependent on petroleum, a price shock in petroleum that causes a complete economic collapse means the trucks stop running. So we starve to death.

A handful of folks - Warren Buffet et al - have the financial resources now to have already equipped fall-back locations to ride out any serious event. The average urban dweller will be completely SOL.

Maybe instead of the average urban dweller building up a paltry 1 week food supply in the pantry, they should invest in Cyanide capsules?

The thing is, regular price shocks tend to *enforce* conservation and reduce energy consumption. Whether it was The Great Depression, or the first OPEC crisis, our energy consumption went down during that period.

Consider that during the first OPEC crisis, the national speed limit was reduced to 55 MPH. Lowering the speed limit had one immediate benefit, and an unintended benefit: obviously, fuel consumption went down; and, highway fatalities went down too.

[Hytec]

The tragic difference between the "first OPEC crisis" and this article's prediction is that the former was merely a bump in the road, whereas the latter will be absolutely permanent. It's just a matter of when, not if, the other shoe (anvil?) will fall.

[yoda]

Wow - doom and gloom....

Is there any light at the end of the tunnel, or should I start looking for a generic version of cyanide now?

:cry: Yoda

[Blue-Adept]

Buy land now. (10 Acers) Move out of the city. Buy Gun's( Needed to protect your family from raiders ) and Lot's of AMMO. Learn how to farm basics. Fruit Trees, corn, wheat, vegatibles, Buy Solar Array for some basic electricy( Radio ) , mybe a windwill to pump water.( Purification unit ) Raise your own meat - Chickens and pigs are easy. Rabbits maybe.
( I saw an article on how household pets ( Ferral cats and Dogs ) can be eaten ) Not something I would ever do but it beats starving.
Build a energy efficiant small house,(Brick with Insulation ) buy some wood stoves. Ride it out.

Now I am not a gun nut but I know how to use one.


And Lastly - Use Prius as a power gen station running on alcohol.

I watch to much Sci-Fi and read to much science. I beleive that when push comes to shove most people will work to create a new energy source. I know for a fact the U.S. Gov has a few energy generating devices that they are keeping secret. ( I worked for them ) Stuff right out of sci-fi .

Blue

[Hytec]

It is hardly Gloom & Doom, nor is it time to build bomb shelters and buy artillery! It's just a wake up call for all of us, governments and citizens alike around the World to change our attitudes about daily life.

That article merely says that the container we call our world has a bottom, and we can now see it. It goes on to say that we have 20-50 years, maybe more, to come up with a totally new concept of living in a world that can support us if we don't destroy it like we've been doing.

Hey, we all are buying Prii, that's a start.... :mrgreen:

[ssmithri]

I am trying really hard to figure out how Rush and the neocons will make this the Democrat's/Clinton's fault. Lord knows the GOP (Gas, Oil, Petroleum party) has no culpablility.

I am sure some of our "right" thinkers will illuminate.

[skruse]

Whether the article is on point or not, we have received multiple warnings since the (so-called) oil crisis of 1973. As the Rocky Mountain Institute offers in "soft-path" models, if you want to double your profit, double your efficiency.

So, if fossil fuel availability is finite, double your efficiency. In the interim, you cut your costs by one-half, effectively "double your profit," and reap years of positive returns while all the other grasshoppers fiddle and make fun of the ants.

No rational person or corporation is knowingly ostentatious. True conservatives think and act long-term. The Rocky Mountain Institute continuously points out that we can live better by living more efficiently - by applying knowledge vs. substituting oil for knowledge.