Hybrids wane, diesels gain as buyers weigh real-world mpg

HiLaker · 07-17-2007, 04:27 PM

In US you still have shortage of high quality diesel refining capacity and a lot of mis-perseptions about modern diesel cars. However:

Link

john1701a · 07-17-2007, 05:41 PM

Wane?

Over 150,000 Prius and over 50,000 Camry-Hybrid will be purchased here this year.

Whatever!

bwilson4web · 07-17-2007, 05:52 PM

Do I understand you sold your Prius and don't have one any longer?

As for the reduction in customers 'considering' a Prius, it helps that a lot of the buying customers were able to get one this year. The drought of Prius is over although they have a fairly low backlog. I find it amusing that only one model is on the minds of HALF of all buyers. No other car comes close.

As for diesel, no doubt a hybrid diesel will show up soon enough and we'll all be happier.

Bob Wilson

JimN · 07-17-2007, 09:50 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(HiLaker @ Jul 17 2007, 04:27 PM) [snapback]480441[/snapback]</div>

Quote:

In US you still have shortage of high quality diesel refining capacity and a lot of mis-perseptions about modern diesel cars. However:
Link
[/b]

In the US we have a shortage of refining capacity period. Refining diesel should become more expensive over time as a larger percentage of crude oil is sour (more sulpher).

catgic · 07-18-2007, 05:28 PM

HTTP 404 Not Found

ZA_Andy · 07-19-2007, 08:51 AM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(HiLaker @ Jul 17 2007, 04:27 PM) [snapback]480441[/snapback]</div>

Quote:

In US .......[/b]

I'm so grateful that yet again, you have taken time to come down from the dizzying heights of wisdom and all-encompassing experience to explain to us that in our ignorance and foolishness, we have completely misunderstood everything and are in so much need of such knowledge and guidance you so magnanimously offer us.

It's clear that every one of us on this side of the Atlantic owe you a debt of gratitude for correcting our mis-perceptions. How lucky we truly are. Blessed, no less.

apriusfan · 07-19-2007, 01:52 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(catgic @ Jul 18 2007, 02:28 PM) [snapback]481224[/snapback]</div>

Quote:

HiLaker --- In Europe, there is extensive, widespread use of diesel to power personal and commercial vehicles. Any one who has ever visited or spent any time living in the major metropolitan-urban areas of Europe can substantiate that there is the distinctive background smell (READ: "Stink") of diesel exhaust that permeates the urban area air over there.

If you “Love L.A.,” you will love widespread use of diesel-power in U.S. automobiles.

Me? --- I am sticking with my “sweet smelling” 51/55/60 MPG Prius Hybrid operating in the Max-MPG "sweet spot."
[/b]

Separate from the eau de diesel, there is also the problem of particulate emissions. There is plenty of evidence regarding carcinogenic properties of diesel soot, that I am not going to re-hash the debate. Suffice it that California and a number of other states in the U.S. have effectively banned diesel cars until the particulate problem is resolved. Even with the latest generation of diesel engines from Mercedes and VW, they still are not able to meet the particulate emission standards for California (and the states that have adopted the California standards) - even with ultra low sulfur diesel fuel. I doubt that you will see a diesel-engined hybrid - especially since the vast majority of hybrid sales in the U.S. are in states that have adopted the California emission standard. Better chance for a direct injection turbo-charged ICE plus lithium ion battery technology than a diesel.

dipper · 07-19-2007, 02:07 PM

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(apriusfan @ Jul 19 2007, 10:52 AM) [snapback]481699[/snapback]</div>

Quote:

Separate from the eau de diesel, there is also the problem of particulate emissions. There is plenty of evidence regarding carcinogenic properties of diesel soot, that I am not going to re-hash the debate. Suffice it that California and a number of other states in the U.S. have effectively banned diesel cars until the particulate problem is resolved. Even with the latest generation of diesel engines from Mercedes and VW, they still are not able to meet the particulate emission standards for California (and the states that have adopted the California standards) - even with ultra low sulfur diesel fuel. I doubt that you will see a diesel-engined hybrid - especially since the vast majority of hybrid sales in the U.S. are in states that have adopted the California emission standard. Better chance for a direct injection turbo-charged ICE plus lithium ion battery technology than a diesel.
[/b]

The Merc Bluetec is as good as any SULEV gas car. It is the definition how CA defines how the diesel must pass emissions that is in question. In CA, the car must have 15 years of maintenance free service and still sustain emissions standards. The only problem with the Bluetec system is that, it is like your windshield washer fluid, needs to be refueled. And CA will not allowed this, so we will not see it.

I would have love one if made by Honda. Too bad politians are so dumb to change their ways, just like Georgia's DMV claiming Prius failing emissions test....

ZA_Andy · 07-19-2007, 03:20 PM

The problem with arguing that particulate pollution is the reason we haven't seen and won't see an increase in diesel powered cars is that almost every corner of the US has seen dire levels of pollutants from diesel trucks, black soot pouring from their exhausts, going almost entirely unchecked - perhaps because the 'transport lobby' claim that fixing these things would cripple the economy by leveraging prices for all goods and services dependent on shipping via road transportation.

In reality, with states largely in control of pollution regulation and the socio/economic bias towards the needs of commerce and industry and so little concerned with environment, the issue of particulates and potential carcinogens is simply not on the radar in the same way it has been in Europe for many, many years.

The problem with HiLaker's proposition is that it ignores the fact that diesel power for passenger vehicles has never been popular here as much (or more) because of the big three's manipulation of the market rather than anything else. Detroit had many reasons to push large, heavy, petrol-fired vehicles and created the marketing tools to ensure that's what the public thought it wanted.

That's why the premise that 'hybrids wane as diesels gain....' is off the mark in the reality of the north american marketplace. Our entire market is skewed towards petrol, and while we are now becoming more aware of fuel efficiency as a desirable goal, we're at least 30 years behind Europe with a market that until recently (not least due to the Prius) was heavily tilted against coherent design for better fuel economy.

It's somewhat like the market for safety. It's not long ago that one of the big three proudly claimed that 'no-one buys a car for safety', when refusing to incorporate safety features that would have increased the base cost of their cars by relatively small amounts. Gradually public perception has changed, firstly in Europe and latterly in the US, thanks in no small part to companies like Volvo and Saab. Even so, we still have these ludicrously erroneous notions commonly spread that 'bigger cars are safer', that 'SUVs are safer than saloon cars'.....

HiLaker is right in the general thrust that in Europe, the fuel consumption of a Toyota Prius is not hard to approach, equal or beat with a number of non-hybrids. My first ever car, bought in England in 1975 and which was 10 years old at that point in time, did a little better than 60 MPG. Fuel costs have kept pressure on car manufacturers selling into that market to produce increasingly fuel-efficient vehicles in order to maintain volume sales against a backdrop of widespread public transport networks and a culture less enmeshed in car ownership. In the absence of high-efficiency petrol engine designs capable of moving tin boxes at reasonable speed, even when loaded with people and luggage, there was little option but to develop better diesel engines, which due to the lower levels of taxation on fuel, meant that diesels gained a popularity they never could have in the US where socio-economic conditions have been fundamentally different.

The result is that while here, hybrid technology is in a very practical sense in the lead in terms of consumer adoption for fuel efficient cars, in Europe it's late to the game and lagging in both appeal and technology. It's a cultural thing, a market-driven thing and a matter of historical development, nothing more, nothing less. Where HiLaker goes off the rails is in drawing European conclusions to apply to the North American market, and biasing the argument around the perception that what works there would work just as well here if only the public weren't so stupid as to pretend otherwise.

MarkMN · 07-19-2007, 03:54 PM

I am skeptical about diesel being a real solution to anything. It takes more oil to produce a gallon of diesel than it does to produce a gallon of gasoline. So, is the increase in fuel economy of a diesel engine really an decrease in oil usage?? And, aren't CO2 emissions from per gallon of Diesel higher than that of gasoline? My gut tells me it is all about the same whether you use gas or diesel engines as far as oil consumption and global warming emmisions, and if there is a difference, it is probably fairly minimal. Hybrids though do bring a real increase in fuel economy, and probably work better with gasoline engines, which are easier to start and stop several times during a trip than a diesel engine (right?). I haven't seen anything about diesels other than that they are more 'efficient' per gallon of respectively refined dino product and are cleaner than before, which doesn't really translate to more efficient per gallon of raw dino product and cleaner than the alternatirve of gasoline engines. Anyone have more insight into this matter than me??

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07-17-2007, 04:27 PM	#1
HiLaker Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 31 My Car: Package: Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	In US you still have shortage of high quality diesel refining capacity and a lot of mis-perseptions about modern diesel cars. However: Link

07-17-2007, 05:41 PM	#2
john1701a Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Minnesota Posts: 2,801 My Car: 2004 Prius Package: Pioneer #3 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 6	Wane? Over 150,000 Prius and over 50,000 Camry-Hybrid will be purchased here this year. Whatever!

07-17-2007, 05:52 PM	#3
bwilson4web Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: North Alabama Posts: 1,823 My Car: 2003 Prius Package: #1 Nominated 2 Times in 2 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 9	Do I understand you sold your Prius and don't have one any longer? As for the reduction in customers 'considering' a Prius, it helps that a lot of the buying customers were able to get one this year. The drought of Prius is over although they have a fairly low backlog. I find it amusing that only one model is on the minds of HALF of all buyers. No other car comes close. As for diesel, no doubt a hybrid diesel will show up soon enough and we'll all be happier. Bob Wilson

07-18-2007, 05:28 PM	#5
catgic Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: HTTP 404 Not Found Posts: 223 My Car: 2007 Prius Package: #2 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	HTTP 404 Not Found

07-19-2007, 03:20 PM	#9
ZA_Andy Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: VA Posts: 179 My Car: 2007 Prius Package: #4 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	The problem with arguing that particulate pollution is the reason we haven't seen and won't see an increase in diesel powered cars is that almost every corner of the US has seen dire levels of pollutants from diesel trucks, black soot pouring from their exhausts, going almost entirely unchecked - perhaps because the 'transport lobby' claim that fixing these things would cripple the economy by leveraging prices for all goods and services dependent on shipping via road transportation. In reality, with states largely in control of pollution regulation and the socio/economic bias towards the needs of commerce and industry and so little concerned with environment, the issue of particulates and potential carcinogens is simply not on the radar in the same way it has been in Europe for many, many years. The problem with HiLaker's proposition is that it ignores the fact that diesel power for passenger vehicles has never been popular here as much (or more) because of the big three's manipulation of the market rather than anything else. Detroit had many reasons to push large, heavy, petrol-fired vehicles and created the marketing tools to ensure that's what the public thought it wanted. That's why the premise that 'hybrids wane as diesels gain....' is off the mark in the reality of the north american marketplace. Our entire market is skewed towards petrol, and while we are now becoming more aware of fuel efficiency as a desirable goal, we're at least 30 years behind Europe with a market that until recently (not least due to the Prius) was heavily tilted against coherent design for better fuel economy. It's somewhat like the market for safety. It's not long ago that one of the big three proudly claimed that 'no-one buys a car for safety', when refusing to incorporate safety features that would have increased the base cost of their cars by relatively small amounts. Gradually public perception has changed, firstly in Europe and latterly in the US, thanks in no small part to companies like Volvo and Saab. Even so, we still have these ludicrously erroneous notions commonly spread that 'bigger cars are safer', that 'SUVs are safer than saloon cars'..... HiLaker is right in the general thrust that in Europe, the fuel consumption of a Toyota Prius is not hard to approach, equal or beat with a number of non-hybrids. My first ever car, bought in England in 1975 and which was 10 years old at that point in time, did a little better than 60 MPG. Fuel costs have kept pressure on car manufacturers selling into that market to produce increasingly fuel-efficient vehicles in order to maintain volume sales against a backdrop of widespread public transport networks and a culture less enmeshed in car ownership. In the absence of high-efficiency petrol engine designs capable of moving tin boxes at reasonable speed, even when loaded with people and luggage, there was little option but to develop better diesel engines, which due to the lower levels of taxation on fuel, meant that diesels gained a popularity they never could have in the US where socio-economic conditions have been fundamentally different. The result is that while here, hybrid technology is in a very practical sense in the lead in terms of consumer adoption for fuel efficient cars, in Europe it's late to the game and lagging in both appeal and technology. It's a cultural thing, a market-driven thing and a matter of historical development, nothing more, nothing less. Where HiLaker goes off the rails is in drawing European conclusions to apply to the North American market, and biasing the argument around the perception that what works there would work just as well here if only the public weren't so stupid as to pretend otherwise.

07-19-2007, 03:54 PM	#10
MarkMN Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Downtown Minneapolis Posts: 228 My Car: 2007 Prius Package: #2 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	I am skeptical about diesel being a real solution to anything. It takes more oil to produce a gallon of diesel than it does to produce a gallon of gasoline. So, is the increase in fuel economy of a diesel engine really an decrease in oil usage?? And, aren't CO2 emissions from per gallon of Diesel higher than that of gasoline? My gut tells me it is all about the same whether you use gas or diesel engines as far as oil consumption and global warming emmisions, and if there is a difference, it is probably fairly minimal. Hybrids though do bring a real increase in fuel economy, and probably work better with gasoline engines, which are easier to start and stop several times during a trip than a diesel engine (right?). I haven't seen anything about diesels other than that they are more 'efficient' per gallon of respectively refined dino product and are cleaner than before, which doesn't really translate to more efficient per gallon of raw dino product and cleaner than the alternatirve of gasoline engines. Anyone have more insight into this matter than me??