2010's Not Jumping Off the Lots Everywhere

[Paradox]

Originally Posted by Lafferty

And has anyone seen the billboards? "Butterfly Approved!" Really? They said they want to go mainstream with the Gen III, but clearly the ads are geared for older ladies.

[Jabber]

Originally Posted by DianneWhitmire

I believe the cars that "we've all been waiting for" to arrive are III with sunroof, IV with sunroof or NAV, and V package, with or without AT.


Dianne

Oh god I could use a ton of those right now. Any of those.

Originally Posted by Blauer Glimmer

Much of the sales of new cars will also depend on how hard-hit the economy is in a particular region. The OP is in or near Chicago, which has been hit pretty hard by the recession. I would expect that new car sales are lower there than in other regions where employment has been less affected.

Our sales are probably going to be down about 5% from last month. Of course, I don't have, or only have a few, 2009 Camrys, Rav4s, 4runners, FJs, or Sequioas. Of course that will hurt our sales.

"The rumors of Toyota's demise have been greatly exaggerated"

Just remember, that if the unemployment rate is 8.4%, that means that 91.6% have income. And about half are still paying cash for the cars. Eliminate the people that are underwater as far as bills, and cannot purchase a car right now, that drops it to 75% able. The rest are no doubt watching their pennies. But what is one of the easiest ways to reduce your per mile cost? Reduce your gas consumption. And it just so happens that the prius is the best gas mileage vehicle out there. Guess which one is getting a lot of looks right now. I have 4 couples in my showroom RIGHT NOW either placing orders or are seriously considering the 2010.

[Matt Herring]

Originally Posted by Jabber

Just remember, that if the unemployment rate is 8.4%, that means that 91.6% have income. And about half are still paying cash for the cars. Eliminate the people that are underwater as far as bills, and cannot purchase a car right now, that drops it to 75% able. The rest are no doubt watching their pennies.

But what is one of the easiest ways to reduce your per mile cost? Reduce your gas consumption. And it just so happens that the prius is the best gas mileage vehicle out there. Guess which one is getting a lot of looks right now. I have 4 couples in my showroom RIGHT NOW either placing orders or are seriously considering the 2010.

Being on the front lines you certainly have a good guage as to what people are considering/buying...hope all 4 put an order in for 2010's at your place!

Curious...in terms of sales have you seen any change in used vs. new (regardless of model) since last year? Are you seeing alot more people looking to buy used?

[bwilson4web]

Originally Posted by Midpack

I am sure they are in some places, but it's interesting to read here about people who have found and bought them quickly without waiting lists. . . .

The first one in Decatur Alabama was bought Wednesday evening; picked up on Thursday afternoon; and tagged and registered Friday morning. I had to wait in the registration line for 3/4ths of the owner's manual.

Buying now, I was able to get 5.7% interest rate on a 60 month note.

Bob Wilson

[Jabber]

Originally Posted by Matt Herring

Being on the front lines you certainly have a good guage as to what people are considering/buying...hope all 4 put an order in for 2010's at your place!

Curious...in terms of sales have you seen any change in used vs. new (regardless of model) since last year? Are you seeing alot more people looking to buy used?

For me personally, I haven't seen much of a change. Especially in the toyota world due to resale value. As the number of low mileage 08's available goes down, the prices of the remaining ones goes up. Pretty soon, it makes more sense dollar for dollar to go with a new one.

Generally speaking, there has been a slight switch over to used from new though. Primarily in the domestic world though.

[SteveArizonaSC]

Local dealers have over estimated the demand. I received an email stating that the list of arriving GIII's were coming in at 2PM and that they expect thirty people to be coming in the door to put money down. If I wanted to get on the list I needed to get there. I told them to call me if anything was left.

They called the next day. I asked what happen to the thirty people rushing the door. "Well the email went out late...". They had several left to choose from. One week later they still have several left to choose from.

[web1b]

Originally Posted by Jabber

For me personally, I haven't seen much of a change. Especially in the toyota world due to resale value. As the number of low mileage 08's available goes down, the prices of the remaining ones goes up. Pretty soon, it makes more sense dollar for dollar to go with a new one.

Generally speaking, there has been a slight switch over to used from new though. Primarily in the domestic world though.

I don't see how that's possible. When people start seeing that a new one could cost less, then the prices of the used have to adjust or they won't sell.

[agentred]

Originally Posted by Matt Herring

It's a catch-22 for the auto industry and Toyota. Even if gas hits $4/gallon...

No unemployed consumer is going to purchase a 2010 Prius (they are in "circle the wagons mode").

No recently "back to work" consumer is going to purchase a 2010 Prius (they are in "collect as much cash as possible and stockpile for the next emergency").

No employed consumer with a mortgage is going to purchase a 2010 Prius (unless they are downgrading from a more expensive monthly payment).

But, Prius sales (2010 or otherwise) will not approach last year's numbers...not even close. With a world crisis in effect a new car is not at the top of everyone's priorities right now.

Toyota. Sales of the Toyota Prius were off 56.8% by volume from March 2008, down to 8,924 units.

You raise some good points and the sources are really interesting. I think the numbers are easily misinterpreted though.

Prius sales in 09 have been lower than 08 due to two things: lower gas prices and a new model coming out. Now, the new model has just been released and gas prices are inching upwards.

Thus I can easily see Prius sales this year being higher than last or any other year, that's what they seem to be doing in Japan and that country's been very hard hit by the recession.

In Japan the Insight was the first hybrid to ever top the monthly sales chart and that's a big indicator. You mentioned it in your third point about people with mortgages:

Mercedes, Porsche and SUV sales will be hit, but since the Prius is a complementary good, people who need a new car and can't afford a Merc but still want cool features will move towards the Prius.

It's really hard to predict right now, but given Toyota has already scaled back production, Prius waiting lists are not impossible, quite the opposite.

And about dealers still having cars a week after release: That's not that bad. We just have really high expectations. That the dealers on the site are selling so many cars already is a good indicator for sales, which other car is selling so fast before the advertising push begins and reviews from the major press start coming in?

[DianneWhitmire]

...and, one thing you may not see as much elsewhere, but here in the Southern CA area, Prius is fast replacing folks' BMWs, Jags, Land Rovers, Mercedes... because they can downsize the budget and lose the expensive car and its lease/loan payments, and, be in a Prius and no one will KNOW they downsized. Why, they just went GREEN!

Dianne

[drspielman]

Every dealership I have gone to in South Florida (6-7) have cars now, but they are all holding out for a higher fee. We will wait and see.