My 2008 versus the 2010- should I wait for a "plug-in?"

[olimpicars]

I have a 2008 Package Two with 26,000 miles. I have a 2010 on order, and can now take delivery of it. I ordered the 2010 on the way out of the showroom the night I took delivery of the '08, thinking that the 2010 would be the new "plug-in", and therefore a noteworthy upgrade. Is Toyota like Apple with their Mac products, i.e. will they spring the new plug-in on the public at any time? (Surprise!). Should I pass on this 2010 and wait for the plug-in version that I thought this one would be? I'm sure that some of you are in a similar quandry, and I would appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.

[nineinchnail1024]

If you want to pay nearly $50K for a new prius, wait for the plug-in.

[David Beale]

The plug-in will give you about 20 mi. range until it -has- to use gasoline. If that would be useful enough then wait the two years until they come out. As stated above, they will probably cost about $10,000 more than the current car, but we shall see in a few years.

[Indyking]

First tests with the plug-in Prius were not very promising:

http://www.wired.com/cars/coolwheels/news/2009/05/plugins0506

My 2010 Prius can do that!

New tests (about 150 cars will be sent to US and 350 divided between Japan and Europe) is scheduled to start in the end of this year...

That new experiment is going to be a long one. So, assuming everything goes well, I don't see the plug-in Prius available for sale anytime before 2011; HOWEVER, GM has committed to begin mass production of Chevy VOLT in November 2010, as a 2011 model year, therefore that will put more pressure over Toyota.

Cost: the plug-in Prius is likely to get the tax credit of $7,500, which is already confirmed for the VOLT. That will make it a lot more attractive to users. Not sure how much the Prius plug-in will cost but the VOLT is going to be anything around 35-40K according to the latest rumors, so if that turns out to be true, we're talking about 35-40K minus 7.5K (tax credit): 27.5-32.5K, which is a price very competitive with the 2010 Prius models 3-4.

Fuel efficiency: Again, numbers for the plug-in Prius is unknown until this new longer and bigger experiment starting in the end of the year concludes, but the GM-proposed MPG formula for the VOLT is: Total MPG = 50xM/ (M-40) if your commute is more than 40 miles before overnight charging. If it is less than 40 miles before overnight charging, your MPG will be infinite in the VOLT. So, in my case, if I get the VOLT, I will be driving less than 40 miles a day to work 4 days a week, so no gas costs until then, but will drive 400 miles to WI plus 400 miles back to Indy once a week. So, applying the formula:

50x400/ (400-40): 55.5MPG. So in the end of the day, the VOLT is not going to be a Huge advantage for me compared to my current 2010 Prius (except in those 4 days where I drive just a few miles/day), but for those with much shorter commutes, it might be worth it. It will be interesting to see how the plug-in Prius compares to it.

[MUPAUL]

Check out the link below. The cost to upgrade a Prius is about 10K to plug-in. It says that it doesn't void the warranty, which is interesting. I may consider an after market upgrade in 3 or 4 years if the cost is closer to 5K and if the Lithium batteries hold out and are not failing.

I for one went with the 2010, but needed to replace a car and I am very happy. I wouldn't touch the Volt since it is GM pushing the industry towards a new technology. Well, maybe if they have a great, great warranty, otherwise, the Volt just seems like a car that may end up being a money pit, especially since other car companies say the technology isn't ready yet. For someone who keeps cars for 10 years, I want a reliable car. If the tax credit is $7,500.00 the price of the plug-in cars will probably increase by $7,500.00. So it will be a 45K car that you can buy for 37.5K after the credit. I would be surprised if the Volt comes out under 45K before the tax credit.

If you can wait until 2012, I'd wait for the Plug-in Prius, but it will probably be hard to get the first year since they expect to only make something like 25,000 the first year (if it in fact happens in 2012; maybe they'll push up the time frame, but then supply will be more limited).

Link Below: The modification doesn't affect the Toyota warranty, and A123 provides a three-year warranty for the battery system, Dolan said.

For a price, Prius can save more in fuel - JSOnline

[Indyking]

Originally Posted by MUPAUL

I wouldn't touch the Volt since it is GM pushing the industry towards a new technology. Well, maybe if they have a great, great warranty, otherwise, the Volt just seems like a car that may end up being a money pit, especially since other car companies say the technology isn't ready yet. For someone who keeps cars for 10 years, I want a reliable car. If the tax credit is $7,500.00 the price of the plug-in cars will probably increase by $7,500.00. So it will be a 45K car that you can buy for 37.5K after the credit. I would be surprised if the Volt comes out under 45K before the tax credit.

I agree, buying the VOLT is very risky considering it’s a GM. We have to give it a few years to see how reliable it will be. About the cost, you may be wrong here, GM is constantly realizing press notes confirming that the VOLT will not cost more than 40K before the tax credit. If you go their VOLT FAQ, they are actually targeting 30K in the near future.

[wvgasguy]

Originally Posted by MUPAUL

Check out the link below. The cost to upgrade a Prius is about 10K to plug-in.

I just don't see much benefit in upgrading the current Prius.

As for the Volt, I was mistaken about the fact that it will have a range longer than the 40 miles that the battery back will be good for on a charge. However in one of the mags this month they said the cars power with the ICE running would be limited to the output for the generator. Thus with the batterypack ran down, you may only have 30 hp. Not bad if you're cruising along the interstate at 65, but if you're sitting at a stop light when the power runs out....

I don't see the first generation of these being desirable for anyone that puts any significant milage on their vehicles. If you had a 5 mile commute, maybe. But people that only commute 5 miles could drive a Hummer and not do that much damage to the environment.

To have any significant impact, the high FE vehicles really need to be replacing peoples rides that drive 20K and 30K a year (like me)

[MUPAUL]

I wonder if they are putting fewer batteries into the Volt to get it to a 40K price. I imagine not, but they must be expecting some cheaper priced batteries. I had read a few months ago that the government wanted GM to stop the Volt program because the cost estimates were not realistic. I also read that in the first year, there were only going to be limited Volts available (like less than 1,000). I hope GM is not rushing this out, but I suspect they are, and it would scare me to buy a GM product that is pushing the envelope on technology. If they rush this out, and if it isn't a success, it will really damage GM further.

If it only has 30 hp after the battery runs out, that is a real problem and a disappointment. I'd love for the Volt to do well and prove my fears wrong.

I like the Volt approach, and I would like to see vehicles that are all electric and then have unlimited mileage once the plug-in charge runs out (but with sufficient hp); but I guess the Prius plug-in will also accomplish this and probably do a better job of it.

[radiocycle]

Well olimpicars, I was trying like everything to hold out for a PHEV! I even had a "My Next New Car... NO PLUG, NO DEAL" bumper sticker on my old TD300 diesel wagon. It has 316K on it and the leather seats are cracking from the sun. I also currently have a $500 deposit sitting down at the local Toy dealer for the first plug-in that comes to the showroom floor.

But, I just couldn't wait any longer... we went for our first Prius and I'm so glad we did. Even though I'm typically not a new car buyer, this was a good move for us. I figure I can trade it in when a decent PHEV comes along but in the mean time we're doing as well as can be done on both fuel mileage and tailpipe emissions.

I kept watching all the sources of info on plug-ins and I'm very excited about eventually owning one, but the often conflicting news and reports about when they will arrive and what they will cost has me taking a 'wait and see' attitude at this point.

radio

[greylar]

I upgraded my 08 and really took a bath on the trade in. Paid 26.6k last year and sold it for 19.5k... ouch. But got into the new one for 4k difference and IMO it is a very good move. The car is a huge step up from the GII. Plus I think that over time the 2008 is going to depreciate quite a bit faster than the 2010 due to it being the "old body style". So in 5 years it still might be worth 4k more than the 08.

There are lots of "rationalizations" for going either way but I don't think you can go wrong moving to the new model.

G