Future Predictions For Battery Packs

[joeman]

I was just wondering what battery packs new and used will be priced like in the future? Right now my 2002 has 72k miles on it, and hopefully want need a battery pack until well after 100k. I drive a truck to work, so my Prius is my off work car, I may put 6k a year on it. So in 8 years I may add 48k miles on car, total of 120k miles.

Thanks, Joe

[patsparks]

Lasts for ages, a search for battery life should find you many hours of reading about battery life of Prius. I suspect the more you drive a Prius the longer the battery will last.

[JimboPalmer]

This is a 'little white lie' we tell folks, the only vehicles with HUGE mileage already are big city taxis, which seem to do 250,000 to 300,000 miles on a HV battery. (This entire post is about the HV battery, the 12v battery lasts just like a normal car battery) However an idle taxi is losing money, so they run 24/7. We do not have as clear a picture how a battery in a Prius does when idle 16 hours a day, or not driven every day of the week. The computer on a Prius that is running has much more control of battery condition than a Prius which is turned off. Until we get reports from traveling salesmen in Prius, we don't have a good idea of battery life for normal users.

We see that here with the early adopters being fanatical hypermilers and getting above EPA mileages, whilst new owners, more mainstream drivers, keep wondering if their Prius is broken, as they don't get the EPA mileage, let alone the hypermiler's mileage. The Battery life of taxis, may not represent what a commuter will get, as the taxis are an extreme.

"Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get" Even if we find that 'normal' owners battery life is also averaging 250,000 miles, that does not mean yours will make it that far. Expect a bell curve, but we are still down on the level part. One Prius in 40,000 has had to replace the Battery. We do not know when the curve climbs, yet.

[bwilson4web]

We've only had a handful of documented NHW11 traction battery failures but they seem to be clustered around warmer climates (aka., Florida) and hilly-mountainous areas. The common factor is heat is the enemy. But we have some fleet data.

I would recommend reviewing the hybrid fleet studies:

Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity: Light-Duty Vehicle Publications

There was a significant loss of NHW11 traction battery capacity over the 160k miles. But after 3-4 months of steady service, the vehicle efficiency leveled off. The lesson being the battery is important but it is not the sole determinant in Prius performance.

But is terribly misleading to represent the NHW11 battery modules and their failures are the same as the NHW20. There was a substantial redesign and the NHW20 battery modules are exceptional.

Bob Wilson

[tochatihu]

Joeman, Toyota now sells the new replacement for about $2200. Hard to predict if that price will change in the future (it is less than their original pricing). The used ones for sale are typically removed from salvage vehicles. The best 'accumulator' of these parts seems to be

www.car-part.com

Today they list about 30 HV batteries at prices from $400 to $1200. This has been about the price range for as long as I can remember. I suppose that's where they'll stay. Toyota's $200 recycling payment puts an absolute lower limit on those prices.