Wait for '09... or wait longer for '10?

[THirt]

Hi everyone. Was able to finally test drive an '08 model today, and am officially smitten. But, I can't decide if I should wait for 2-6 months (quoted probable wait time for an '09) or until "late spring 2009" which is when I was told the 2010 model would be out.

Of course, there are going to be lots and lots of variables for each individual. I don't 'need' a new car now, I guess I could wait, but I am not sure I should wait, because you never know when the models will really start rolling in, and the first model year always has some bugs to be worked out. Of course, we don't know the pricing or the packages yet for the 2010 model, but can guess things will be a bit bigger, a bit more expensive, etc.

Any thoughts? The dealership I went to showed me the waiting list, and the folks #1 in line got in line on May 27th, not too bad.

[TravelBliss]

Don't wait.... get on the list now. I hear prob not much difference between the 2 models??

[NeoPrius]

I have thought about this question also and decided to go with the current model year ('08 or '09 are identical).

The '10 may be a new model year and the new design won't be a plug-in for several years 'till they get the Lithium-Ion battery thing worked out. You take a chance with a new model year because they won't have all the bugs worked out of it yet. I believe the '10 is supposed to be a bit wider, more powerful and gets better mileage, or so the marketing propaganda goes. Recent "spy photos" in links on this website show it to be more "sporty" looking. Personally, I don't go for the Barbie car look - I'd rather have a station wagon, or something I could haul a piece of plywood home from the hardware store. Hey Toyota - where's the station wagon?

The '09 is a more mature design that is several years old. Less to worry about in terms of bugs. Also you can get it sooner and cheaper. Not as sporty looking - a bit more utilitarian. It has a known reliability history, there are tons of mods, adaptations and accessories available for it today, and you can get parts from the junk yard if you need to. People have written all sorts of instructions and app notes on how to do common maintenance procedures, you can get good maintenance books and manuals for it.

It all depends what you're looking for.

[doubleg2005]

wait 6 months and get the '10

[Kapena Gary]

I'm waiting for the '10. I finally talked the Santa Barbara Toyota dealer to start a 2010 "waiting list" and my name's on top. They probably will forget but I'll be bugging them fairly frequently until the '10's start showing up. Then, if I am not notified when the '10's start coming, I'll be bugging every Toyota dealer with in a 100 mile radius. I plan on being patient and getting the color and options I want ( and at hopefully not more than MSRT!).

I'ver never bought a first year model before and have bought USA cars for the past 35 years, but I'm depending on Toyota's quality reputation to continue even with the Gen 3.

[NeoPrius]

Originally Posted by doubleg2005

wait 6 months and get the '10

What makes you think it's only going to be six months, when the '09 isn't even shipping yet?

THirt: Another thing you have to consider if you are trading in another vehicle is how quickly is that vehicle decreasing in value. For example, if you're trading in a big SUV, they are depreciating very quickly. Not only will you pay an increased MSRP for the '10, but you will lose value on your trade in very quickly (I'd say in the thousands of dollars every year if it's a large SUV or pickup). Depending on what you have now, if gas prices continue to climb (and there's no reason to believe they won't), you may find yourself driving a perfectly good SUV to the junk yard, simply because no one wants it.

[Betelgeuse]

Originally Posted by NeoPrius

What makes you think it's only going to be six months, when the '09 isn't even shipping yet?

I don't know about "6 months," but the '10 is supposed to start shipping in April of 2009.

Originally Posted by NeoPrius

THirt: Another thing you have to consider if you are trading in another vehicle is how quickly is that vehicle decreasing in value. For example, if you're trading in a big SUV, they are depreciating very quickly. Not only will you pay an increased MSRP for the '10, but you will lose value on your trade in very quickly (I'd say in the thousands of dollars every year if it's a large SUV or pickup). Depending on what you have now, if gas prices continue to climb (and there's no reason to believe they won't), you may find yourself driving a perfectly good SUV to the junk yard, simply because no one wants it.

On the other hand, there's a certain amount of irrational panic now. Yes, SUV's are not worth that much, but it's very possible that people will calm down in several months and the rate of depreciation will decelerate.

[NeoPrius]

Hi Betelgeuse,

I'm just pointing out some things for THirt to think about to help him/her in making a decision.

Originally Posted by Betelgeuse

On the other hand, there's a certain amount of irrational panic now. Yes, SUV's are not worth that much, but it's very possible that people will calm down in several months and the rate of depreciation will decelerate.

Agreed. There is irrational panic, but it's only irrational because the average person doesn't understand the underlying reasons for the rise in gas prices. I share that panic, but it's a well thought out panic. People think "big oil" is gouging them and the speculators are driving prices up, and the govt is going to come in and legislate prices down, or that drilling in ANWR or the gulf will fix things. I am a believer in "peak oil" and that there is a supply and demand issue going on due to increased consumption by emerging economies and the inability of producers to keep up with that demand. That coupled with the apparent desire(?) of the current administration and/or the Israelis to stir up a conflict with Iran before the elections creates (in me at least) a certain sense of urgency. I am currently driving a vehicle that is costing me about $70 a week for fuel. I have watched that vehicle depreciate in kbb value about 20% since January - although depreciation may slow due to gas prices (temporarily) decreasing, I would expect to sell that vehicle for scrap metal in a couple of years - or sooner if anything happens in the middle east. This is just my line of thought, other people may see it differently.

I hope this doesn't redirect the topic of this thread, but again these are all things that I thought about in my decision not to wait for the '10 to come out.

[THirt]

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies so far. I hadn't considered the depreciation or what the current economy may or may not do the value of my car. I have a 2004 Murano, in good shape, no major problems. I drive fairly conservatively, and get close to 24 mpg, which isn't too bad for a V6 SUV. I would think the depreciation of something like that wouldn't be as bad as say, a Chevy Tahoe.

I'm certainly leaning towards getting on a list now. I may do just that this week.

I already have Prius Envy, the only problem is that if the 2010 model comes out and has, say, 60 mpg instead of 46, I'll have envy over that as well. I suppose, however, it shouldn't be that hard to find a buyer for a gently used Prius in a year or two.

Thanks again to everyone who responded.

[NeoPrius]

Worst thing that can happen once you get on the "list" is that you change your mind and the dealer happily sells the car to someone else. MAKE SURE THAT YOU GET IN WRITING THAT YOUR DEPOSIT IS REFUNDABLE should you change your mind. MAKE SURE YOU GET THE PURCHASE PRICE (MSRP) IN WRITING ALSO just in case you don't change your mind.