Lithium Shortage

[clett]

Remember that the estimates of lithium reserves quoted are for the amounts thought to be present in mineable resources on land.

There is vastly more lithium available not on the land.

[FL_Prius_Driver]

Refining Lithium has not been subject to the results of improved refining. Zirconium (and similarly Titanium) underwent a transformation from crystal bar refinement to the Kroll process once the volumes took a big jump. It took a lot of industrial effort to make this happen. Then on top of that, Titanium is being refined (on a very small scale right now) with the new Cambridge Process which will probably displace the Kroll process.

This goes back to the earlier comment that discounting the largest mineral reserves of Lithium as uneconomical was very, very premature.

[donee]

Hi gx9901,

Well, there was once this fabric which was very expensive It was made from oil and only used in Haute Coutre. Then a guy named Delbert Meyer (I lived across the street from when I was in High School) invented a process for making the precursor chemicals that was very cheap. The rest is history - Disco Polyester!

Same Paradigm Shifts have been seen in many industries and processes. The real economic demand wont occur until half that Lithium Carbonate ore is used up.

Repeating Detroit propaganda without support about the cost of the Prius is not going to win any arguements here on Prius chat. And if its true, that is even more reason to go out and get a Prius!

[Darwood]

gx9901 said
"What's needed is the political will to raise mileage standards in addition to public transit oriented urban planning. Past that, a collective realization that cars are not a birthright. "

This is correct. The point he is making is that lithium powere cars are not going to replace our entire car infrastructure. BUT, there is not ONE solution to replacing the oil infrastructure, it will be a basket of solutions all chipping away at it. Lithium battery vehicles WILL be a major one of those solutions, albeit for the upper and maybe middle class. It will be too expensive for most of the world. Mass transit and rail will be the biggest requirement/solution as pointed out. But that shouldn't deter us here from taking an interest in the EV's we are anxiously waiting for. Many of us here will be able to afford a personal EV.

Also, Lithium is but one material that can go into batteries. There are people today using lead batteries successfully in an EV, and that is very old technology. Who cares if they have limited range if it gets them to work and back.

My point being...it is futile to argue that Lithium batteries are not feasable since they can't replace every car on the road and it's probably just as futile to argue that they will as well. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

[MikeSF]

Originally Posted by gx9901

What's needed is the political will to raise mileage standards in addition to public transit oriented urban planning. Past that, a collective realization that cars are not a birthright.

The minute that the government of the United States decided freeways and roadways are the way to go for our transportation was the minute cars became a "birthright"

Everything you said is true about mass transit, etc. Hell many people in ultra-cramped american cities like NY also rely almost solely on mass-transit as well as other cramped other cities around the world that have good public transit. However how do you fix a problem? You can't simply make good mass transit available with the snap of a finger, it costs money, LOTS of money. So since we're "stuck" with roadways and commuting I think the most prudent course of action is to find a way to make the best to how things already are and not trash ideas for some idealistic view of the way you think it should be.

Remember most of the cities in the world that have good public transit have been "maxed out" as far as expansion well before cars existed, however in the US we had lots of land to exploit.

[mwbueno]

[quote=gx9901;550255]

Originally Posted by mwbueno

With all due respect, you have interpreted the report wrong. Your acceptable figure for Li content in cells is correct. But so is Mr. Tahil's. Please read the report again. He puts the figure at 0.3 kg/kwh. He then goes to stat 1.4 kg/kwh.

The key here is that first Tahil states 0.3 kg in Li elemental form. Then he states 1.4 kg in lithium carbonate. You wrongly assumed 1.4 kg/kwh as the figure for elemental Li.

Furthermore, 12 MT reserves of carbonate does NOT exist. Geological surveys established the elemental ore-CONTAINING reserves. In reality, as the study states, Li is in the 3 forms. The carbonate form is estimated to be 6 MT. This is the only form usable in batteries. This is once again in the paper by Tahil.

Past that, you cannot assume that Li usage will not increase in other industries as well. We will recycle but there is no telling what demand increases are in the future outside of the auto industry.

I've taken the time to revive this thread due to the large amount of faulty information as a result of the internet. No hard feelings.

Hi gx9901,

I guess you must have missed the part of the message that clearly explains that I am NOT claiming elemental Li... I copied the following from the very message where you say I am interpreting erroneously by not considering Lithium Carbonate (Li2CO3) rather than elemental Li:

"If you add up the molecular weight of lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) & then figure what the percentage of lithium is, you find that lithium makes up 18.8% or .188 of Li2CO3.

76.92 / .188 = 409.15g of Lithium Carbonate in 1kWh of this Saft Li-ion battery.

This is only 0.409kg/kWh --- NOT 1.4kg/kWh, Mr. Tahil’s basis for this article..."

This clearly shows that Mr Tahil is off by 342% or 3.42 X too much Li2CO3 Lithium Carbonate per kWh.

If you would like to see the estimated World Lithium supply the USGS just released its 2008 survey for Li in the following link:

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pu...2008-lithi.pdf

In case you do not want to look it up, I quoted from page 2 of that report below:

"World Resources: The identified lithium resources total 760,000 tons in the United States and more than 13 million tons in other countries."

It now appears there are at least 13,760,000 metric tons of Li2CO3 Lithium Carbonate available in our world...

No hard feelings here!
Wayne