Bob Lutz: $5k-7k for “very complex, very sophisticated” two-mode hybrid system -- 25 and 30% fuel economy gain

[usbseawolf2000]

GM's Lutz Says Automaker Must Have Hybrids Despite Expense and Doubtful Benefit

London UK July 19, 2006; Just-Auto interviewed GM's Bob Lutz at the London Auto Show: "Hybrids are technologically of doubtful benefit, and expensive, but necessary from a political and public relations point of view", according to General Motors vice president, global product development [aka ‘GM product czar’] Bob Lutz.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Opel/Vauxhall Corsa global launch in London today (18 July), Lutz said GM currently offered two levels of hybrid systems. The “simple one”, in the Saturn Vue, “has engine shut-down at idle, automatic re-start with the throttle, a limited amount of electric drive which keeps the motor small and lets you get away with a very small, inexpensive battery pack.

“It gets 18% [fuel consumption reduction] on the US urban cycle so it’s worth it,” Lutz said.

GM also offers a “very complex, very sophisticated” two-mode hybrid system which, Lutz noted, came from the Allison bus transmission operation and is being re-engineered for light trucks and passengers cars in the joint venture between GM, Mercedes and BMW.

“We will launch it next year in full-size pick-up trucks,” Lutz said. “That is a very sophisticated system. We will get between 25 and 30% fuel economy gain but it’s also a pretty expensive system.”

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“Assuming we can do all that, [for] a diesel hybrid you would be adding $US5-7,000 on-cost for the sophisticated hybrid system to the $5-7,000 on-cost for a Bin 5-compliant diesel. Now you’ve got a $12-14,000 cost penalty in the vehicle which the customer would simply never, ever [pay].”

Link

Dennis

[richard schumacher]

A further demonstration of the reasons why GM will continue sliding to oblivion.

The first company to adapt HSD to busses and trucks will own those markets.

[hampdenwireless]

Toyota's HSD is a clever, almost simple system. Toyota's biggest PARTS cost is probobly the batteries. GM's system is so complex the transmission is probobly as expensive as the batteries. Making it in large numbers will reduce the cost but not as much as what happens when battery supply catches up with demand on the HSD.

Electric motors can be made quite cheaply. Toyotas electronics are going to reduce in price, and the gearset while a precision device is just not expensive to make.


Right now if I were GM I would make Saturn style BAS system standard on as many vehicles as I could, its not a great system but its cheap and it does provide a reasonable mpg gain for its cost. Finally its something GM can actually do.

[Tempus]

The interesting thing in that article to me is where he says:

“Toyota has said, economically, hybrids make no sense. The reduction in fuel [consumption] does not pay for the technological content and cost of the vehicle so therefore economically it remains fairly nonsensical, so that’s the left-brain analytical argument."

I'd really like to see a citation for where Toyota said that because I have significant doubts, that the quote is quite accurate or complete. I suspect a few liberties were taken somewhere.

[wstander]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(richard schumacher @ Jul 23 2006, 07:36 AM) [snapback]290930[/snapback]</div>

A further demonstration of the reasons why GM will continue sliding to oblivion.

The first company to adapt HSD to busses and trucks will own those markets.
[/b]

That is counterproductive; any effort made to improve large utilty vehicle mileage needs to be encouraged.

[john1701a]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tempus @ Jul 23 2006, 10:27 AM) [snapback]290945[/snapback]</div>

“Toyota has said, economically, hybrids make no sense.[/b]

I'm sure that was indeed true... back in 1994 when the hybrid development began. Geez! How cheap was gas back then? And what importance was the reduction of smog-related emissions so far in the past.

Talking about leading you to believe something but not telling you it is no longer valid. Heck, a quote like that could have easily survived all the way to the end of the THS availability (2003). But now, the world is quite different. Gas is much more expensive. Emissions are considered more important. Battery technology continues to improve. So that "has said" holds little merit anymore.

As for the Lutz attitude, GM has little chance of succeeding. No wonder they only plan to deliver 83,000 of the two-mode system by 2010. At least they are being sincere about their effort having a political and public relations focus. But to use the words "doubtful" and "expensive" without any reference to perspective is just plain wrong. That was the case for Toyota originally. It isn't anymore though.

Oh well. It is entertaining to watch an automaker self-destruct. Witnessing denial on that scale is hard to believe. But there it is.

[Jonnycat26]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Tempus @ Jul 23 2006, 11:27 AM) [snapback]290945[/snapback]</div>

I'd really like to see a citation for where Toyota said that because I have significant doubts, that the quote is quite accurate or complete. I suspect a few liberties were taken somewhere.
[/b]

Not quite the quote you want, but something similar:

Customers are not willing to pay dearly for what Toyota chief engineer for product planning, Shigeyuki Hori describes as a "big electric appliance".
In short, hybrid versions of many models will just be too expensive, he said.[/b]

[wstander]

“Assuming we can do all that, [for] a diesel hybrid you would be adding $US5-7,000 on-cost for the sophisticated hybrid system to the $5-7,000 on-cost for a Bin 5-compliant diesel. Now you’ve got a $12-14,000 cost penalty in the vehicle which the customer would simply never, ever [pay].”


Hmm, I see a lot of $45-55K trucks and SUVs out there now; does he mean that the diesel+hybrid ________would cost $57-69K?

And if they only use a flex-fuel engine, vice the diesel, then the range is back to $50-60K..

Sounds doable to me, judging from the market that they are addressing anyway.


Shigeyuki Hori quote waswas said 8 August 2005:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/toy...3353208622.html

[wstander]

Shigeyuki Hori stated in or about 5 August 2005:


http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/toy...3353208622.html

[flyingfysh]

Should we listen to ANYTHING GM has to say?

My wife once owned a Chevy station wagon. The transmission was constantly breaking down. Once when the transaxle broke, a dealership insisted on waiting a week to even begin repairs (for "authorization") even though the car was still under warranty. The original dealership sold her an extended warrantry from some 3rd-party company which immediately (and conveniently) went "bankrupt". She finally had to junk the car after just 70,000 miles.

Is it any wonder we will never ever buy from GM again? And now we are supposed to listen to anything GM has to say about hybrids?

Unlike GM cars, Toyota cars work.