Toyota brings forward PHEV release date

[clett]

"Toyota has had a change of heart about plug-in hybrids, said Dennis Cuneo, senior vice president of the company’s North American operations.

In March, Toyota engineers said the concept of a car that can be recharged at home overnight and only use gasoline occasionally when its batteries run low was interesting. But they said then that high-tech batteries needed to make it work could take as long as 10 years to develop.

On Thursday, however, Cuneo said the automaker is now more hopeful that the batteries could be ready soon. Speaking at the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce’s annual meeting at the Galt House, he said Toyota believes it could have a plug-in hybrid on the road much sooner."

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.d...SINESS/60727025


They only need to stick a 3 kWh LiIon pack (30 kg) in the next Prius and put a plug on it to call it a PHEV-10. The very first Prius had 1.9 kWh, so I think it's looking ever more likely that the next Prius will have an arrangement like this.

[yarzy]

So maybe a plug option WILL NOT be around for the next gen???

[john1701a]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(yarzy @ Jul 28 2006, 08:19 AM) [snapback]293760[/snapback]</div>

So maybe a plug option WILL NOT be around for the next gen???
[/b]

I'm certainly not expecting the debut of the next generation to offer it. The platform will naturally be designed to support it, even better than what we have now. But cost is still very much a prohibitive factor.

[SomervillePrius]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(john1701a @ Jul 28 2006, 10:31 AM) [snapback]293785[/snapback]</div>

I'm certainly not expecting the debut of the next generation to offer it. The platform will naturally be designed to support it, even better than what we have now. But cost is still very much a prohibitive factor.
[/b]

Argh, that's "bad" news. I was really hoping that they would launch the car with plug-in. In a way it's good as I would be forced to upgrade otherwise :-D

[clett]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(SomervillePrius @ Jul 28 2006, 10:36 AM) [snapback]293789[/snapback]</div>

Argh, that's "bad" news. I was really hoping that they would launch the car with plug-in. In a way it's good as I would be forced to upgrade otherwise :-D
[/b]

3 kWh of 18650 lithium-ion cell today costs only $900. That's not much more than the existing 1.3 kWh NiMH pack (meant to be ~$700 factory cost). The plug itself would be very a cheap extra feature, so it all depends on the battery they choose to install. The question is will it be big enough to justify a plug? I think LiIon is just cheap enough now for them to give it a go.

Here is what Shinichi Abe, head of Toyota's hybrid division, had to say on the matter in a recent interview:

"Toyota is working on plans for "plug-ins" for the battery from the grid.... the next Prius model will be able to do a nine-mile commute to work without using any petrol or diesel."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/st...1743810,00.html

[Leo]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jul 29 2006, 01:55 PM) [snapback]294329[/snapback]</div>

3 kWh of 18650 lithium-ion cell today costs only $900. That's not much more than the existing 1.3 kWh NiMH pack (meant to be ~$700 factory cost). The plug itself would be very a cheap extra feature, so it all depends on the battery they choose to install. The question is will it be big enough to justify a plug? I think LiIon is just cheap enough now for them to give it a go.
[/b]

If the existing battery is 1.3kWh NiMH, and if the computer only uses the range of 40-80% of full charge, that means it only has 40% of the capacity of the battery pack to work with (0.5kWh). If a Prius with Lithium-Ion can use a wider range of the 3kWh battery, then the EV range would increase again. For example, if new Prius could use the lithium-ion battery in a 10-90% range of maximum battery charge, then with a 3kWh battery you would have 80% of the usable charge to work with (2.4kWh in my example.)

[clett]

Exactly.

[chogan]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jul 29 2006, 01:55 PM) [snapback]294329[/snapback]</div>

3 kWh of 18650 lithium-ion cell today costs only $900.
[/b]

CalCars comes up with roughly the same cost estimate - $3,000 for a 30 mile PHEV addon for a Prius-sized hybrid.

At risk of being boring, I'd like to repeat my cost-effectiveness calculation for the average driver from other threads on this topic, to reinforce the idea that this is economically viable right now.

A PHEV 9 add-on for the Prius, at $900, is marginally cost-effective now for the average US driver, over a 100,000 mile time horizon, from net gas cost savings alone, as long as the PHEV battery pack will last 100,000 miles. On net, the US average driver would come out $400 ahead, at the end of 100,000 miles, by paying $900 for the PHEV 9 option.

Based on the average US average mix of trip lengths, over 100,000 miles, a PHEV 9 in a Priuis would:

Reduce gasoline use by 26%, with net cost savings (net of the electricty) of $1300 (based on $3/gallon gas and $0.60 gas-gallon-equivalent cost for electricity, and 48 MPG current Prius mileage);

Reduce net C02 by 13% (assuming published data that electric propulsion has C02 = 50% of gas propulsion).

Extend ICE life by 35% (assuming that ICE life is determined solely by engine hours).

If allowed under warranty, reduce ICE maintenance costs proportionately.

I've factored in no MPG penalty for the weight of the batteries, but for PHEV 9 that shoud be a pretty small correction.

Of course if it's an option, it might differentially attract those with trip mix oriented toward many short round trips (what I might call the "at-home parent" trip pattern as opposed to the "exurban commuter" trip pattern), in which case savings for those opting for PHEV would be higher than savings as shown based on US averages.

Even a PHEV 30 would be almost break-even. At current battery costs, under the assumptions above, a PHEV 30 might not pay for itself in gas savings alone, in a Prius, again based on US average trip mix, but it would be pretty close. If the PHEV 9 saved you a net $400 ($1300 net gas savings less $900 assumed cost of the option), the PHEV 30 would cost a whopping $400 ($2600 net gas savings less $3000 cost of the option). Again for the US average trip mix. Clearly, some portion of buyers would find the PHEV 30 to be cost-effective at current prices.

Given "the kind of people who'd buy a Prius", what fraction of Prius buyers do you think would take the PHEV 9 option at say $1,300 (for PHEV plus charger, say)? I mean, at that price, we're assuming Toyota is giving them away, but still, between the greens, the techs, and the cheaps, seems like this has something to offer everyone. I'd bet the majority would opt at $1300, particularly if the future option to add incremental miles were offered (ie., to add capacity to upgrade to PHEV 20). Which means that Toyota ought to be able to offer this at a substantially higher price, get a good per-unit return on it, and still sell quite a few.

One final thought. Wonder if Toyota has been planning this for a while, just waiting for battery technology to mature? You know that funny space under the finished floor of the trunk. I find that good for nothing in day-to-day travel, which is an odd waste in such an otherwise efficiently designed car. That seems to be where CalCars tends to put the batteries when they do Prius PHEV mods. Wonder if that has been reserved for the PHEV pack all along?

[clett]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(chogan @ Jul 30 2006, 09:44 AM) [snapback]294575[/snapback]</div>

A PHEV 9 add-on for the Prius, at $900, is marginally cost-effective now for the average US driver[/b]

Remember they could take out the existing $700 NiMH pack to replace it with the $900 LiIon pack.

So the cost differential would only be $200 extra over today's Prius.

The only other difference other than switching battery chemistries would be to change the programme to allow routine charge/discharge over 80% of the battery SOC (vs 40% available today, but always trying to hover at around 60% SOC in the existing Prius battery control programme).

[chogan]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(clett @ Jul 31 2006, 05:38 AM) [snapback]294979[/snapback]</div>

Remember they could take out the existing $700 NiMH pack to replace it with the $900 LiIon pack.

So the cost differential would only be $200 extra over today's Prius.

The only other difference other than switching battery chemistries would be to change the programme to allow routine charge/discharge over 80% of the battery SOC (vs 40% available today, but always trying to hover at around 60% SOC in the existing Prius battery control programme).
[/b]

Clett,

Excellent point, my mistake. Here I am, stuck in my soon-to-be obsolete 2005 Prius, thinking of the cost of a retrofit. At that price it hardly seems worth it to have it as an option as opposd to standard equipment. A $200 (plus markup) option that reduces apparent gas use by a quarter, increases apparent gas mileage by a third? Any reasoning person would opt for it. I could see Toyota offering it only with an expensive option package, to maximize profits. But a Prius without PHEV becomes the equvalent of "crippleware" software - Toyota would risk being viewed as purposefully degrading the performance of the non-PHEV vehicles in order to maximize returns from PHEV.

The phrase "tipping point" is overused but seems completely appropriate here. An additional up-front investment amounting to (say) 1% of the value of the machine allows an average 26% reduction in gasoline consumption (at US average travel patterns) via substitution of electricity. To be implemented in a single model year, as a modification of an existing technology? Phenomenal. Given that the current EPA rating for the Prius is 60 MPG city, it's not beyond the pale to think that the Prius PHEV would end up with a mid-70s-low-80s EPA city rating. This is do-or-die for Detroit.