$12 Gas and Rationing? Possible, Says Expert

[Kablooie]

Think $4 a gallon gas is already too much? Then brace yourself, says one expert.

"The prices that we're paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be 'the good old days,' because others who watch this very closely forecast that we're going to be hitting $12 and $15 a gallon, and then, after that, when world oil production goes into decline, we're going to talk about rationing," Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

$12 Gas and Rationing? Possible, Says Expert - Oil and Gas * Energy * News * Story - MSNBC.com

[freshmtt]

Holy Crap!!!!, WEll if it ever comes to that, at least we positioned ourselves in a neighborhood that I can walk everywhere if I really had no choice. I have a major grocery store within walking distance and bike riding distance and the train station to get to work is also that close as well as everything else we need...

But this is really a scary situation. Lets truly hope that by the time this may ever occur that cars will be totally run on electric and hydrogen at that point....

[bac]

Originally Posted by freshmtt

Holy Crap!!!!, WEll if it ever comes to that, at least we positioned ourselves in a neighborhood that I can walk everywhere if I really had no choice. I have a major grocery store within walking distance and bike riding distance and the train station to get to work is also that close as well as everything else we need...

The downside won't even be in the cost of transportation, although certainly that will hurt plenty. The real downside be in the incredible increased cost of goods and services. Inflation isn't a strong enough word for what may happen if petrol hits those levels.

... Brad

[Devil's Advocate]

This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
What do you mean, "biblical"?
What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Exactly.
Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
The dead rising from the grave!
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

[ZC1]

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
What do you mean, "biblical"?
What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Exactly.
Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
The dead rising from the grave!
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

Oh no, not dogs and cats living together...!

I guess who'd know better than the Devil's advocate.


ZC1

[F8L]

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
What do you mean, "biblical"?
What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Exactly.
Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
The dead rising from the grave!
Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

Somewhere between denial and the apocalypse is the likely scenario.

Lets visit Cuba and see how a lack of oil has affected them.....

[jayman]

What I find amazing is that in the past 35 years, the number of American oil refineries has declined about 50%, all while dramatically increasing production in the ones left. The remainder of gasoline demand must be met by refiners in other countries

Everything comes at a price, nothing is free and certainly gasoline isn't some sort of Constitutional Right. Far from it.

If we want more domestic oil, we have to take a bite out of the s*** sandwich and face EROEI of 20:1 and lower. A lot of that pricey oil only breaks even - has a reasonable ROI - with oil priced as it now is, preferably higher

Of course, you can't pump crude oil into your tank and expect the Prius to run. You need refineries, ethylene crackers, all that wonderful petrochemical engineering to make it work. Let's not forget water, the ratio of oil to water consumption at a typical refinery is about 1:1

Considering how much folks are worried about potable water supplies, where will that water come from? I know, we can build a bunch of nuclear power plants, use that electricity to desalinate water, and pump the water to the refineries

"Point of diminishing returns" is the phrase used here

[Spectra]

Originally Posted by Kablooie

$12 and $15 a gallon, and then, after that .... rationing .... "

not impossible, after all, who could have imagined that 19 guys with box-cutters could have done a 9/11

[stumpy_c]

This is silly. Demand is already declining (at least in the US) for gasoline. Another dollar or two and nobody will be leaving home. If gas ever does hit $12 a gallon something else will take its place (electric, biofuels, whatever).

Or we'll have a real war for oil, which Iraq obviously was not since we're having this conversation.

[richard schumacher]

No, no. We can make artificial vehicle fuels, even from non-fossil carbon sources, for roughly $5 per gallon. For one possibility see
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL): Synthetic Fuel Concept to Steal CO2 From Air