Chevy Volt news, again

[jtmhog]

Just watched a news brief on NBC evening news. The program manager (I didn't catch his name) of the volt bet his life on the volt coming to market. Maybe he should have a body guard for his safety. The battery is being lab tested around the clock. 2010 is the target year. Around town it will get 40 miles on the battery. Recharge at home cost will be 80 cents. 100 MPG (no explaination how that is figured). The newscast said that there are 100 fuel cell cars by GM being driven by consumers. The main question that needs to be answered is what is the pay back period?

[john1701a]

Of course Volt is coming to market. That has never been the issue. It's:

How many?

Will we just get a token vehicle, a trophy? Or will they actually use the technology to replace a big chunk of their production? Will traditional models be phased out in favor of this?

.

[vuapplepudding]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Will we just get a token vehicle, a trophy?

.

I think John1701a has something here.

The volt will come to market, but so highly priced and at limited quantities that few people can buy it. It will not be the people's vehicle (opps that is another automaker's line).

They are just using the Volt to use their GREEN badge in advertising. A badge that they have not yet rightfully earned.

I'll believe it when I can buy it. That is if I can buy the whole thing and not have to lease any part of the car.

[rfruth]

>> Recharge at home cost will be 80 cents.

come on I was born at night just not last night ...

[Stev0]

Originally Posted by john1701a

Of course Volt is coming to market. That has never been the issue. It's:

How many?

Will we just get a token vehicle, a trophy? Or will they actually use the technology to replace a big chunk of their production? Will traditional models be phased out in favor of this?

.

Or what I've been saying since the very first time I heard of the Volt: The question isn't will GM screw it up, it's HOW will GM screw it up?

[hiremichaelreid]

Originally Posted by jtmhog

Recharge at home cost will be 80 cents. 100 MPG (no explaination how that is figured).

If they assumed $2.00 per gallon, then 40 miles = 80 cents at 100 MPG.

When was gas at $2.00 per gallon ?

Either that or "100 MPG" is the mantra.

[Godiva]

There will be a few hand built cars.....for lease....once you are approved.......

[DeadPhish]

Right now GM is WAY behind the curve on its hybrids.

Soon GM will be right behind Toyota with a full lineup of very capable hybids and the Volt which if it can perfect the Li-Ion technology should actually leapfrog the Prius. No kidding.

However.... see Toyota's comments on Li-Ions. They are not at all certain but that 2010 time frame seems to be the common deadline for Toyota and GM and recently Nissan. We'll see. Nobody knows, yet.

But ignore the pricing banter. That's GM doing its PR thing for its faithful and to generate background noise when it makes its case in front of Congress for a $3000 to $5000 to $7000 tax credit for purchasers. If GM keeps humping that $40000 price tag then gets Congress to approve a $7000 tax credit for PHEV or EREV vehicles, voila... $33000 net for the buyer and $40000 net for GM.

As to John's point.... NONE of the PHEVs will be big sellers. IMO both the GM model and the Toyota model will both be window dressing at best. One would have to be specifically a well-to-do suburbanite commuter to get best advantage of the feature. These will not be every day vehicles for the unwashed masses. For the next 10 yrs I'd expect the current technology to expand to encompass the entire fleet of autos and crossovers.

Eventually the Li-Ions will prevail after sufficient real world verification. Toyota has NEVER been excited about PHEVs. Except for GM calling them out with the Volt I think that they wouldn't have made a large promotion of the technology. IMO they've estimated that PHEVs have a very very limited market as compared to the current ubiquitous Prius which anyone anywhere can drive.

[Rybold]

The market demand will determine the production levels of the Volt. If gasoline remains at $4.00 per gallon (or goes to $5.00 or more), and the Prius continues to have a waiting list, and SUV demand drops by MORE THAN 50% (we are talking 2010 here), the concept of "adapt or become extinct" will force GM to gear up Volt production. There will be little market for GM's large ICE vehicles, and there will instead be LARGE demand for more hybrid and EVs.

As for the $40K price tag, or $33k? Currently, the Prius base sticker price is ~$21K. I have heard rumors that Honda is aiming for their new "early 2009" hybrid to have a sticker price that will be lower than the Prius, in an attempt to better target the mass/volume market. Toyota will likely respond be creating a variant of the "Prius line of vehicles" that will be competitively priced. In such an environment, GM will not be able to compete with a $40K vehicle ...
...UNLESS ... GM has hybrid cars also available to compete with Prius, and the Volt is considered a "special, even better" vehicle.

[DeadPhish]

Originally Posted by Rybold

The market demand will determine the production levels of the Volt. If gasoline remains at $4.00 per gallon (or goes to $5.00 or more), and the Prius continues to have a waiting list, and SUV demand drops by MORE THAN 50% (we are talking 2010 here), the concept of "adapt or become extinct" will force GM to gear up Volt production. There will be little market for GM's large ICE vehicles, and there will instead be LARGE demand for more hybrid and EVs.

As for the $40K price tag, or $33k? Currently, the Prius base sticker price is ~$21K. I have heard rumors that Honda is aiming for their new "early 2009" hybrid to have a sticker price that will be lower than the Prius, in an attempt to better target the mass/volume market. Toyota will likely respond be creating a variant of the "Prius line of vehicles" that will be competitively priced. In such an environment, GM will not be able to compete with a $40K vehicle ...
...UNLESS ... GM has hybrid cars also available to compete with Prius, and the Volt is considered a "special, even better" vehicle.

A typical selling price for this current Prius is about $25K. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Gen 3 with more HP, better FE and better handling priced on average about $26-$27 topping out around $30K. There's a couple of outside factors operating here.

Currency: with the US$ tanking our sales in the US are much much less attractive than other areas, Europe and Asia specifically. Even with Toyota increasing production by 60% this year we may not get 'our fair share' simply because each US sale is a loser. For example the Prius in the UK goes for about $37000-$40000 when converted to US$. How many Americans are ready to pony up this much for a Prius. From the manufacturers pov why should they sell a bunch of $27000 Prius' when they can sell a bunch of $37000 units.

Fuel: The increase in fuel costs is affecting the entire world. Every developed country on earth will want more Prius'. We will have to outbid the rest of them just as we have to outbid them for oil.

Ugly situation but it's just business. Profit rules, nothing else.