TheStreet article "why you shouldn't buy a hybrid"

[carz89]

Just published today in TheStreet, an article by Brian Walker entitled "Why You Shouldn't Buy a Hybrid Car". Holy moly, is this guy one-sided, neglecting to mention many of the facts counter to his own arguments. Typical of the media these days. They get paid to write a juicy article -- just leave the actual facts and analysis up to the reader.

Why You Shouldn't Buy a Hybrid Car - TheStreet.com

So I emailed him back the following points:

1. People ARE helping the environment when they buy a hybrid, which may be reason enough for someone to buy a hybrid. Global Warming is a scientifically proven phenomonon. The amount of fault placed on human development can be debated (there were periods of global warming before there were humans), but it is proven that certain gaseous emissions do enhance global warming. Pound for pound, mile for mile, hybrid vehicles do emit significantly fewer tons of greenhouse gases. You neglected to mention that the Prius puts out only 4 tons (from the EPA website) annually. That's signifantly less than all other vehicles of the same size.

2. Your economic analysis of cost of ownership is flawed in that you assume the price of gas will remain at $4.00/gallon over the next decade or so. I guarantee that won't happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see $6.00/gallon by summer 2009, or $8.00/gallon by the summer of 2010. I'm surprised that you didn't mention this, but there have been concerns over the cost of future battery replacement. However, this argument is beginning to fall apart as thousands of prius owners have now gone over 100,000 miles without any battery problems. A fleet of Prius taxis in Vancouver have gone over 250,000 miles without any battery problems. Toyota has repeatedly voiced that if there ever is a battery issue with a Prius, that the solution is usually an inexpensive replacement of just a few cells, not the entire array of cells.

3. Even at highway speeds, the Prius has significantly better MPG than a similar sized conventional vehicle. Compare the Prius 45mpg versus the non-hybrid Camry (4 cyl) at 31mpg highway. Both cars have nearly identical total interior volume and total propulsion power. Yes, at highway speeds the engine is running continuously, but the Prius benefits greatly from the more aerodynamic shape.

4. Except for the Prius, it is true that hybrids today are heavier than their non-hybrid counterparts. But that doesn't have to be. The Prius can get by with a smaller, lighter engine since the electric motor can supplement power when needed. Unfortunately, automakers are presently feeding the American appetite for speed and power by keeping the same heavy, powerful engines and adding on the hybrid components, thus adding overall weight. I think this trend will reverse itself in the future. Incidentally, there are weight savings in many of the hybrid transmission and auxiliary components. And, in the future, all hybrid batteries will be even lighter with the transition to Lithium Ion chemistry.

5. Yes, people only keep a car for 5 years on average. But the car isn't thrown away, it is usually passed on as a used car to another buyer. Hybrids have retained their resale value better than their counterparts. So, looking only at fuel savings, you don't recoup the "hybrid cost", but you do recoup most of it when you re-sell it.

6. There are other reasons to buy a hybrid. They are generally quieter and a much smoother ride with their CVT (continuously variable transmission). Maintenance costs are actually lower. (less brake wear, less engine wear, simpler transmission, no belts to replace, more reliable auxiliary components). They are generally loaded with cutting-edge technology (keyless entry, rear view camera) that you find only in high-end vehicles. Many people like these features. Personally, I achieve an average of 51mpg in my Prius. But even if it were 10mpg lower, I would have bought the car due to these other attributes.

[TonyPSchaefer]

Best Option for Saving the Environment
Toyota Prius
Going green is the biggest trend to hit the auto world in quite some time, and more and more drivers are making the switch to Earth-friendly cars. Toyota has six out of the 30 top spots on the latest J.D. Power Automotive Environmental ratings, making it the top manufacturer. The Prius is quickly becoming the flagship of the green car movement.

The newest models offer a shift toward the spaciousness and styling of tradition non-hybrid sedans, while its Hybrid Synergy system splits time between an electric motor and a gas engine that gets 48 city/45 highway miles per gallon.

This is from the same author: Which Car 'Type' Is Right for You? - TheStreet.com

[icarus]

I think his point is right on regarding the GM and Lexis hybrids. The point of a Hybrid Tahoe to save money, gas or emissions is an oxymoron (emphasis on MORON!)

I would no buy a Tahoe hybrid to save gas than I would walk to the moon. His point is that with the exception of the Prius most of the other cars are a suckers bet, to which I agree. Clearly if you switch from a Tahoe to a Civic you are going to save gas, money and emissions. The net from the civic hybrid from the Civic is way smaller. Same with the difference between a Camery and a Prius.

What is true, and is not stated the piece is the economics of the Prius are way better than any other hybird, even given it's higher initial cost. Having said that, most of us bought our Prius not save gas, or money or even emissions, but rather because we saw it as A: Cool technology, B:Pushing the envelope of technology so that it gains mainstream acceptance, C: Because we thought it was the right thing to do. The price of gas has only made our choice more financially friendly.

When Toyota comes out with mainstream plug ins, there will be early adopters who buy them for the same reasons. By the conventional Prius' will have become even more mainstream.

Icarus

[MegansPrius]

Originally Posted by TonyPSchaefer

This is from the same author: Which Car 'Type' Is Right for You? - TheStreet.com

Yep. Brian Walker.
Editorial Intern.
Now there's a moniker to instill trust.

[hiremichaelreid]

Originally Posted by cjzito

2. Your economic analysis of cost of ownership is flawed in that you assume the price of gas will remain at $4.00/gallon over the next decade or so. I guarantee that won't happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see $6.00/gallon by summer 2009, or $8.00/gallon by the summer of 2010.

I agree with your points, but will point out that just about every analysis (including my own) assumes constant gas prices.

Just because you think it will be 6 or 8 and someone else thinks its 1 or 2 and someone else 20, doesn't mean that will be true, and the author or analyzer CAN'T and shouldn't use your "biased" assumptions.

Perhaps these analyses should just show you what payback times are associated with what gas prices. In theory they could use some gas price prognostication from some "reputable source", but who really knows what prices will be ? If you (or I) or anyone knows for pretty sure, you (or I etc.) can make a FORTUNE in commodities and shouldn't be "wasting" your/our time here with such valuable price forecasts.

[bgdrewsif]

I agree with your reply to the clearly biased article 100% but also agree with Michael Reid's suggestion of factoring in the payback time at various petrol pricing levels... But Bravo for spreading the Prius gospel! BTW I have slowed down to 55-60MPG on the freeways and further improved my coasting technique when coming to a stop sign or light and over the last 400 miles have averaged 54.2MPG (according to my Prius' computer)

[joe1347]

I'm confused by your story. I paid $21,900 for a new Toyota Prius that gets almost 50mpg, while a similarly equipped (and sized) Toyota Matrix gets around 25mpg and costs about $3000 less (than the Prius). I drive about 15,000 miles per year, so I'll use about 300 gallons of gas in the Prius versus 600 gallons of gas if I would have bought the Matrix (instead of the Prius). With gas going for about $4 a gallon, I'll make up the $3000 difference in purchase price (with gas savings) in not much more than 2 years. Hmmm. So why shouldn't I buy another hybrid?

Thanks for the link. I emailed him also with the note above. What an idiot!

[chogan2]

Maybe a better description of the highway mileage is that, on the highway, the Prius can largely get by using just a 70 HP engine because it has the hybrid components to boost power when required in other situations. The hybrid components are what allows the Prius to have a gas engine that is right-sized for highway cruising efficiency, instead of over-sized as a conventional gas car must be.

Kudos for the point on resale value. The value of the car at resale ought to reflect the remaining gas savings available to the next purchaser. Thus, you effectively recoup the (capitalized value) of the future gas savings when you sell it. Or, in English, you get a particularly good resale value when the cost of gasoline is up, because the next purchaser is anticipating those gas savings. You said it right, this is just a different wording.

[HayaiKuruma]

I've been a newspaper reporter and editor for 30 years and believe me, this was simply an attempt at creating buzz by writing a story that takes the opposite tack from the conventional wisdom -- no matter how much you have to contort the facts. It's an old trick that unfortunately never fails to get results. Months from now, you'll overhear idiots at cocktail parties say: "I read in the street.com that hybrids are all a bunch of hype." Almost makes you miss Art Spinella.

[tochatihu]

^^Hey new member making 1st post. Hiya, Hayai

I definitely miss Art Spinella. Really looking forward to an energy cost analysis of GM Volt. With high development costs and low production, it's going to be like $100 per mile.