Forbes top ten residual - Prius not on the list

[brian_peterson]

I don't think any mass-produced car can be considered an "investment". Even with the Prius. This is a 'bubble'. Once gas prices go down or that Mississippi plant goes online you will see your used Prius resale value plummet. This is a known event (the new Prius plant). When supply meets demands the "investment" group on this forum will become all but silent. It's going to happen... Just the question is when.

Whereas a true investment car you know will only go up over time. Those are classic cars where the supply chain has ceased. That's an investment. The Prius is just a fluke.

[sorka]

Originally Posted by brian_peterson

I don't think any mass-produced car can be considered an "investment". Even with the Prius. This is a 'bubble'. Once gas prices go down or that Mississippi plant goes online you will see your used Prius resale value plummet. This is a known event (the new Prius plant). When supply meets demands the "investment" group on this forum will become all but silent. It's going to happen... Just the question is when.

Whereas a true investment car you know will only go up over time. Those are classic cars where the supply chain has ceased. That's an investment. The Prius is just a fluke.

Eventually, but even if Toyota increased production 10x, there'd still be a waiting list. Gas prices going down? We might see little dips here and there, but they're on their way to $10 / gallon and nothing will stop it.

[C.RICKEY HIROSE]

I understand as to why the Prius has low residual value. I "blame" Toyota Financial Servces in conjunction with Toyota Motor Sales, USA Inc.
for disclosing such a "low Residual value" for the Prius, to the various publication based on their ( Toyota) Lease residual guideline.

Most manufacturers do set their vehicles residual value as high as possible in order to buy market share and entice public to come in to their "Brands" but market share gained now, will hurt that manufacturer in the future when all this leases comes back. _The market value_ is not there. I remember, Nissan USA used to give lease deals of the weekends for years but when those vehicles came back, had to have $hundread of millions$ ready to amortise excess market value residuals!

This is a sample taken out from Toyota Financial assignated residual value.

It is artificially lowest residual future value. a 5 years "wholesale" of 37%?
Toyota Financial has taken a Big Hit with their leases in the past. So it won't repeat same mistake again. We the _Dealers_ do bit way much higher $ by thousands when these lease terminated vehicles goes to toyota dealer auction although.
So you pay more now (monthly payment) and pay less later! _Capital Gain_! Buy those lease Prius and take the appreciated difference money to the bank!

Model Number: 1224E Dealer Total
Vehicle Base Model ..........................:$ 22875.00
50 State Emissions .........................
Includes: Cruise Control, ..................
Heated Outside Mirrors; 15" Alloy Wheels ...
with Trim Ring; Tonneau Cover; Seatback ....
Pockets. The price of this option is .......
included within the base vehicle MSRP ......
above. .....................................
Package #6 Includes: Leather-Trimmed Seats . 4550.00
and Steering Wheel; Voice-Activated DVD ....
GPS Navigation System; JBL AM/FM 6-Disc ....
CD Changer with 9 Speakers, Aux Audio ......
Input Miniplug, MP3/WMA Playback ...........
Capability, Satellite Radio Capability, ....
and Hands-Free Phone Capability via ........
Bluetooth; Vehicle Stability Control; ......
Backup Camera; Smart Key System; ...........
Anti-Theft System; Auto-Dimming ............
Rearview Mirror with HomeLink; High ........
Intensity Discharge (HID) Headlamps; .......
Integrated Fog Lamp. .......................
Carpet Floor Mats & Cargo Mat .............. 199.00
Rear Bumper Applique ....................... 69.00
Wheel Locks (Alloy) ........................ 67.00
--------- --------- ---------
Total Accessories ...........................: $ 4885.00

Destination Charge ..........................: $ 720.00
--------- ---------
Total Msrp.......................................: $ 28480.00
Residual Values
--------24 ------36--- ---48------ 60
------- --- ------ ------- -------
STD $16,955 $15,354 $12,995 $10,479 (15 K year)
24 mos N/A $15,811 $13,453 $10,936 (12K year)

[brian_peterson]

It's cool and all I can sell my car for more than I paid for it. But if gas is truly going to $10 in the near future (doubtful), would you ever sell it? Thus how could it be an investment, unless you intend to sell it? What are you going to do... Walk to work? Most of us need our cars to get somewhere, like work.

It's the same psychology that our market is in right now with the Housing Crisis. People feel poorer because their homes are worth less money, thus they cut back consumer spending (one of many reasons, granted), yet are the vast majority of American's going to run out and sell their home? Nope. They just feel poorer.

I think the far more logical picture is gas prices are going to ebb and flow but with an upwards trend higher. For example now that gas is $3.70 a gallon here in Iowa all my SUV co-workers are back to their old traveling habits. They are now planning late summer vacations. People will get use to it. With only lower income brackets being ravished (for another topic).

Again, never buy a car that's mass produced, as an investment, unless you are planning on buying and selling them 'rapidly' based on market conditions. Sounds like then you would be a 'day' trader on cars.

In the long run all our shiny cars will be almost worthless in 12 years, and I can almost guarantee you will not get even close to sticker no matter how well you took care of your car. Contrast that with a House... In ten years - historically - a house will be worth more.

Cars are bad investments.

[robbyr2]

I don't think there are any of us who look at our Prii as an investment. It's amazing that the resale value is as high as it is, but I think anyone excited enough to be on this site is unlikely to have bought a Prius planning to sell it immediately.

Iowa has $3.70 gas? Wow! I did see one budget, cash-only station here at $3.85 this morning but most are still at $3.90. And given that they still have to pay $147 a barrel for the oil they bought last month for delivery later this year... I don't think we can plan on $3 a gallon this year. I am surprised about the increased driving of SUVs in Iowa. Not around here... of course, things have been going fairly well in Colorado. Most of the reaction is not desperation because of gas prices but anger. Most folks can afford it at $4, they just don't want to. Unfortunately for Sen. Obama, most Coloradans seem to be blaming the Democrats for not drilling for oil off Calif and Fla. Of course they are opposed to oil shale development and drilling for natural gas on our Roan Plateau, but OIYBY (Only In Your Back Yard) seems acceptable to many of us.

[gmalis1]

Here is the latest CarMax quote for a 2005 Prius with 25,000 + miles, and I assume package 4 (no leather).

$25,998!

I'm pretty sure I paid less for mine new!

And, I've been shopping my 2005 Prius and am on the list for a new 2009/2010 Prius. I am #4 on the list at my dealer.

The "other" dealer in my area quoted me $16,000 for my car (35,000) miles. I laughed in his face!

[C.RICKEY HIROSE]

Originally Posted by brian_peterson

It's cool and all I can sell my car for more than I paid for it. But if gas is truly going to $10 in the near future (doubtful), would you ever sell it? Thus how could it be an investment, unless you intend to sell it? What are you going to do... Walk to work? Most of us need our cars to get somewhere, like work.

It's the same psychology that our market is in right now with the Housing Crisis. People feel poorer because their homes are worth less money, thus they cut back consumer spending (one of many reasons, granted), yet are the vast majority of American's going to run out and sell their home? Nope. They just feel poorer.

I think the far more logical picture is gas prices are going to ebb and flow but with an upwards trend higher. For example now that gas is $3.70 a gallon here in Iowa all my SUV co-workers are back to their old traveling habits. They are now planning late summer vacations. People will get use to it. With only lower income brackets being ravished (for another topic).

Again, never buy a car that's mass produced, as an investment, unless you are planning on buying and selling them 'rapidly' based on market conditions. Sounds like then you would be a 'day' trader on cars.

In the long run all our shiny cars will be almost worthless in 12 years, and I can almost guarantee you will not get even close to sticker no matter how well you took care of your car. Contrast that with a House... In ten years - historically - a house will be worth more.

Cars are bad investments.

Here is my 1997 TwinTurbo 6 spd Supra. After 11 plus years, this is when new and now Kelly Blue Book says: Roughly $10k devalued but if I keep it then future value can be as high as when new 11 years ago.

1997 Toyota Supra Twin Turbo 15th Anniversary Special Edition 6 Speed Manaual.
Model Number:
2383A
Serial # : V0039707 Model Description: SUPRA
TURBO Category
..........: H Year ............:
1997
Selling Dealer .... Interior Color ..: LA21
Ship Date .........: 03/28/1997 Exterior Color ..: 06P3
Retail Date .......: 06/30/1997 Body ............: 3-DOOR
LIFTBACK Date of First Use .:
06/30/1997 Number of Cyl ...: 6
Fleet .............: NON-FLEET Engine Number ...:
2JZ0531727 VIN .............: V0039707
Ignition Key.....:
N/A Accessories .....: FE
LE
Retail Dealer Vehicle
Model ....................: $ 49.900.00
MECHANICAL: TURBO,24 VALVE, VVT-I, EFI ENGINE 6-SPEED MANUAL TRANSMISSIONTRACTION
CONTROL SYSTEM4-WHEEL INDEPENDENT DOUBLEWISHBONE SUSPENSIONSPEED
SENSING PROGRESSIVEPOWER RACK AND PINION STEERINGANTI-LOCK BRAKE SYSTEM
(ABS)POWER 4-WHL VENTD DISC BRAKESBRAKESLIMITED SLIP
DIFF.235/45ZR17 FRONT TIRES255/40ZR17 REAR TIRESSAFETYDRIVER
AND FRONT PASSENGERAIR BAGS (SRS)3-POINT SEAT BELTS WITHALR/ELR
PASSENGER BELTSSIDE IMPACT DOOR BEAMSEXTERIORREMOVABLE SPORT
ROOFPOLISHED ALLOY WHEELSINTEGRATED PROJECTOR FOGLAMPSDUAL
COLOR-KEYED POWER MIRRORSFRONT & REAR SPOILERTINTED
GLASSEXTERIOR & INTERIOR LIMITEDEDITION BADGESCOMFORT &
CONVENIENCEPOWER SPORTS SEATLEATHER SEAT MATERIALPREMIUM
ETR/CASSETTE/CD WITH7 SPEAKERS W/POWER &DIVERSITY
ANTENNAVARIABLE INTERMITTENT WIPERSPOWER WINDOWS AND DOOR LOCKSTILT
WHEEL/CRUISE CONTROLAUTOMATIC CLIMATE CONTROLTHEFT DETERRENT
SYSTEMLEATHER WRAPPED STEERING WHEELCARPETED FLOOR
MATS
Retail Total $ 49900.00
================================================== =====

15th Anniversary Special Edition 97 Twin Turbo 6 speed manua

Retail Breakdown
Kelley Blue Book
May-Aug 2008

May-Aug 2008 Value Kelley Blue Book®
1997 Toyota Supra Limited Edition Turbo L'Back 6 speed manual. 2D.................................... $32,500

6-Cyl. 3.0L Turbo........................
Included
6 Speed Manual........................... $2,300
RWD......................................
Included
* * * Equipment * * *
ABS (4-Wheel)......................... 65 Air Conditioning...................... Included
Alloy Wheels.......................... 35 AM/FM Stereo.......................... Included
Cassette.............................. Included Cruise Control........................ Included
Dual Front Air Bags................... Included Leather............................... 100
Power Door Locks...................... Included Power Seat............................ 35
Power Steering........................ Included Power Windows......................... Included
Premium Sound......................... 35 Rear Spoiler.......................... 35
Single Compact Disc................... 135 Sport Roof............................ Included
Tilt Wheel............................ Included
Fuel City/Hwy 18/23 MPG
Retail Value without mileage.................... $35,240
Mileage Adjustment(53300) miles................. $4,150
***Total Kelley Blue Book Retail Value***( $39,390.00 )

[brian_peterson]

So far well in line with my previous statement:

"Twin Turbo 15th Anniversary Special Edition 6 Speed Manual"

In 10 years from now there will be a glut of Prii on the market that will in general not be that "special" (this is a good thing just think of a world where Prius is more popular than the Camry)... How many 15th Anniversary Special Editions of the Prius is Toyota cranking out?

I agree with the general prevailing wisdom of the board. Don't buy a Prius as an "Investment" tool. Buy it because of the environment, National Security (less oil), cool factor and saving on Gas.

[PriusSport]

Another thing on the value of a used Prius: If you check Kelly's blue book, it is the retail price that is appreciating--not the trade-in or wholesale price. The latter is actually decreasing like any other car. Which doesn't mean you can't get higher than the blue book trade-in for your Prius--depending on what you trade it for. So you have to sell it yourself to make some money.

Anybody want to try to trade your Prius for a Hummer? What will a Hummer dealer give you? That would be interesting. Maybe he'll give you two Hummers. LOL.

[Godiva]

Originally Posted by apcpa2000

I agree, They are using residual values that banks are assigning for leases.

Aha. That explains missing Prius. They're not being leased...right?