Toyota Seeks Battery-Price `Sweet Spot' for Plug-Ins

[SageBrush]

Toyota looking for a 'sweet spot' is just a practical acknowledgement that different battery capacities is a bit more involved than having a couple of steering wheel covers available in the parts store.

For instance:
Space utilization
Safety Testing
Weight distribution
Battery related heat dissipation, supporting electronics

... and I'd guess another 100 other things an auto engineer could bring up. Fitting a battery size to a car is just not a trivial exercise in time and money for Toyota, and they want to find the capacity that the greatest number of people are going to want to buy, at the highest price Toyota can charge and watch the market grow.

The GM Volt spec has been a PR stunt from day #1. Toyota has different priorities, thankfully.

[DeadPhish]

Originally Posted by Kablooie

Well let's see,
My current Prius goes perhaps a mile or so as electric only.
Only enough to drag myself near a gas station in an emergency.
(Which happened once. I had to walk several blocks to buy gas and carry it back to the car.)

My commute to work is 20 miles each way.
For me, my instinct tells me I would be willing to pay,

5 mi - $1000 - I don't think I'd pay extra for any fewer miles

10 mi - $1500 - maybe

20 mi - $2000 - This would cover my trip to work one way

40 mi - $5000 - This would cover my whole daily commute so would be worth a substantial premium

I don't think I would consider a premium over $5000.

These figures aren't due to any financial calculations. They are just my first instinctive feelings about it.

I think that this is a good SOTP matrix. It's about the same as my own estimates. I look at it differently using a % coefficient.

I drive 150 mi daily with an annual fuel bill of about $2700 based on 2.1 GPC ( 48 mpg ) and fuel at about $3.50/gal*. At current fuel prices a 'gas-free' capability of....
..5 mi would save me about 3.3% of my annual bill, or $90 / yr.
..10 mi would save me about 6.7% of my annual bill, or $180 / yr.
..20 mi would save me about 13% of my annual bill, or $360 / yr.
..40 mi would save me about 25% of my annual bill, or $720 / yr.

*If fuel prices continue to escalate at a nominal rate of $.50 / gal per year on average then over 7 yrs of ownership my average cost of fuel would not be $3.50 ( current ) but rather $5 / gal.

A realistic estimate is that I will drive 250,000 miles in a 7 yr period. At an average fuel cost of $5 a Gen 2 Prius would cost me about $24500 to buy and about $26000 to fuel up.
A 10 mi gas-free segment would save me about 6.7% of my total fuel bill or about $1750.
A 40 mi gas-free segment would save me about 25% of my total fuel bill or about $7000.
Thus I wouldn't want to pay any more than about $31000 for a PHEV that gives me a 40 mi gas-free segment each day.

However if the new Gen3 Prius has improved fuel economy of 10-15% at little or no increase in price of the vehicle, then neither of the two soon to be seen PHEVs have any economic value for me. OTOH my wife who drives 30 mi per day is a perfect candidate for one....as long as they are not priced near $40000.

[zenMachine]

A 30 to 40 mile EV range is what I need 75% of the times. Not sure yet how much I'd pay for it, but any range shorter that probably won't interest me at all.

A 60 mile range would serve my needs 90% of the times. If it could go for around $5K I think it'd sell like hot cakes.

[daniel]

Originally Posted by Shawn Clark

daniel,

I don't see battery swaps as impractical at all, but fast recharging is dicey. Battery swaps will require design with that in mind, a different kind of filling station. There is no reason that specific form factors can't be designed for use among all manufacturers (several sizes). Besides, paying for the battery on installments rather than necessarily owning it from the start makes sense as it would speed adoption.

Why do you say that fast charging is dicey? The A123 LiFePO4 battery used in the Phoenix Motorcars SUT can be charged in 10 minutes, given a sufficiently powerful charger and sufficient available electric power. Swapping would require the same overall available electric power, fed to a much larger number of chargers due to the (much) slower charge time for conventional charging.

Standardizing form factors among different auto makers is a pipe dream.

And paying for the battery on installments is lousy personal economics, as you pay an exorbitant interest rate whenever you buy anything on installments. You'd pay far more at the swapping station than you now pay in interest on your car loan because the swapping station would represent a humongous investment for the owner: Remember that swapping requires double the number of batteries: one in the car, and one waiting to be swapped in, and you'd never know when you're going to get a bad battery pack from the swapping station.

Originally Posted by SageBrush

Toyota looking for a 'sweet spot' is just a practical acknowledgement that different battery capacities is a bit more involved than having a couple of steering wheel covers available in the parts store.

For instance:
Space utilization
Safety Testing
Weight distribution
Battery related heat dissipation, supporting electronics

... and I'd guess another 100 other things an auto engineer could bring up. Fitting a battery size to a car is just not a trivial exercise in time and money for Toyota, and they want to find the capacity that the greatest number of people are going to want to buy, at the highest price Toyota can charge and watch the market grow.

The GM Volt spec has been a PR stunt from day #1. Toyota has different priorities, thankfully.

While your points about differing battery size are valid, there are conversion shops all over that will turn just about any car into an EV, and you can specify what range you want to pay for. If they can put different size packs into an existing car, Toyota could design a car from the ground up to accommodate different size packs.

Agreed, that the Volt is nothing but a PR scam.

[SageBrush]

Conversion shops do indeed exist, but they do not operate under the same constraints as Toyota. E.g., they typically do not certify the car for EPA or CARB, do not crash test the vehicle for safety, and do not concern themselves with altered driving mechanics due to a weight redistribution. In fact, in the best of cases all they offer is a working battery, usually with a short warranty.

I'm not trying to diss the independent shops, but the comparison isn't useful.

[Shawn Clark]

Originally Posted by daniel

Why do you say that fast charging is dicey? The A123 LiFePO4 battery used in the Phoenix Motorcars SUT can be charged in 10 minutes, given a sufficiently powerful charger and sufficient available electric power. Swapping would require the same overall available electric power, fed to a much larger number of chargers due to the (much) slower charge time for conventional charging.

One wouldn't have to sit around and wait for the charging to happen. It would be done on racks. The customer won't care as long as they can swap packs and keep going to get a long effective range. Stopping for 15 minutes (10 of it actually charging) every 150 miles is NOT going to be very appealing to someone on a trip.

Standardizing form factors among different auto makers is a pipe dream.

I seriously doubt that. Once the initial race is over and some battery tech takes the lead, I expect to see a major push for form factors. It will happen within car companies first, then across car companies. They aren't going to want to be in the business of producing, selling and servicing batteries. There will be advantage in shifting the overhead and infrastructure outside of their organization. It's a core competency issue as much as a customer convenience/range extending matter.

Another really big advantage I see for car manufacturers is that they might be able to remove much of the battery expense from the purchase price.

We already have battery form factors for other services, and a few of the many form factors tend to dominate.

And paying for the battery on installments is lousy personal economics, as you pay an exorbitant interest rate whenever you buy anything on installments. You'd pay far more at the swapping station than you now pay in interest on your car loan because the swapping station would represent a humongous investment for the owner: Remember that swapping requires double the number of batteries: one in the car, and one waiting to be swapped in, and you'd never know when you're going to get a bad battery pack from the swapping station.

Nope, I disagree entirely.
1. The installments don't have to be any worse than for purchasing and recharging. In fact, the battery should be far cheaper in a limited number of form factors/sizes across car manufacturers. While I tend to pay for things in cash upfront, most U.S. consumers prefer installments as it minimizes the initial outlay.
2. You also neglect that plug in stations will also have a similar infrastucuture cost. The same power has to be input after the same distance and you will need more parking space to sit around charging.
3. Swapping only requires a small increase in the number of batteries because the battery just removed goes on the rack and will be back in service later that same day (repeat for several cycles). It comes down to how many cycles can be done per day and how many days between charges for the average vehicle and driver. It wouldn't surprise me if the working ratio was 1 for 10.
4. Part of the form factor (and/or charging center, and possibly the car) will be the self-diagnostic capability of the batteries and probably some charge metering. It will be in the battery owner's economic interest (charging station or other lessor) to check batteries and recondition before batteries fail.

[miscrms]

A few thoughts:

Originally Posted by Stefx

HyMotion's pack may be a better reference as to what can be done... it's what? 30 miles EV range for 10k USD?

I agree, Hymotion is a better reference. Bear in mind that their 30-40 mile range is their mixed mode range, not their EV range. With a raw capacity of 5kWh, and a usable of ~3kWh, one would expect maybe 15 miles EV range from Hymotion. Its also worth noting that this is by far the best price going on a Li-ion pack from what I have seen. Not surprising since it is being developed and sold directly by the battery manufacturer. That would be about $7500 per 10 mile EV range, so Toyota's $5k/10 miles range number sounds reasonable in the next few years.

I've said it before, at those kinds of numbers ($5k/10 mile, $10k for 20 mile, $20 for 40 mile range) I think Toyota is being much more realistic talking about 8-20 mile PHEVs in the 2010-2012 timeframe, compared to GM's 40 mile in 2010. Keep in mind also that packs in the 8-15 mile range could be pretty readily implemented with NimH rather than Li-ion, cutting the cost in half.

I think people also vastly underestimate the benefit of lower range PHEVs. Here are a couple of rough estimates for a basic PHEV10 with a 50mpg charge sustain mode efficiency, and 100mpg hwy speed charge deplete mode efficiency:

20 mile commute, charge at work:
--INF MPG city, >100mpg hwy
20 mile commute, charge only at night:
--100mpg city, 100 mpg hwy
30 mile commute, charge at work:
--150mpg city, >100mpg hwy
30 mile commute, charge only at night:
--75mpg city, 83mpg hwy
40 mile commute, charge at work:
--100mpg city, 100mpg hwy
40 mile charge at night only:
--67mpg city, 75mpg hwy

Based on Toyota's number of $5k/10 mile Li-ion, and given that NimH is about 1/2 the cost of Li-ion, I would think a 10 mile PHEV with NimH for $2,500 extra would be a good place to start. If you drive 30 miles per day, you'd save about $300 in gas a year ($4/gal), paying for the system in about 8 years. Not hugely financially compelling, but not a loss which will be helpful for the first adopters who will mostly be motivated by factors other than gas money. Contrast that with a $15k Li-ion PHEV30, which for the same 30 mile per day would save between $400-900 per year. At that rate it takes 17-37 years to pay back. Not that payback is the bottom line, but it helps. Payback gets a little longer when you factor electricity in, but charging at night the cost should be small (<$100 per year). Obviously if the PHEV tax credits go through and are substantial it will make longer ranges in Li-ion practical sooner.

Rob

[clett]

"Toyota's number of $5k/10 mile Li-ion"

Toyota are grossly overestimating the cost of lithium-ion. BYD and others are already selling LiFePO4 for $300 per kWh, which at 5 miles per kWh is just $60 per extra EV mile range. Assume $100 per EV mile to allow for shallow discharging.

What they mean is their lithium-ion (ie from Panasonic EV) is still uncompetitive in terms of cost.

[miscrms]

Originally Posted by clett

"Toyota's number of $5k/10 mile Li-ion"

Toyota are grossly overestimating the cost of lithium-ion. BYD and others are already selling LiFePO4 for $300 per kWh, which at 5 miles per kWh is just $60 per extra EV mile range. Assume $100 per EV mile to allow for shallow discharging.

What they mean is their lithium-ion (ie from Panasonic EV) is still uncompetitive in terms of cost.

I think thats a bit of an exaggeration. I agree BYDs pricing is impressive, but their reliability and life is a complete unknown. While I admit I am a bit out of date on the subject, the last threads I had seen on the EVDL regarding chinese Li-ion there were still major problems to overcome in the areas of manufacturing variation, cycle life, and reliability. I think Toyota's price is right on for tier one vendors like A123 or their own PanasonicEV. They are high priced, but top notch in quality. Even A123 is only guarantying their cells in the Hymotion L5 pack for 3 years, despite only using 60% of the packs capacity. Given that PHEV manufacturers are going to have to warranty their products for 8 years and 100-150,000 miles we're talking about an even bigger problem of quality, reliability, and battery management.

I think this is the exact problem GM is wrestling with right now. A123's solution for the Volt is robust and high quality but pushing the cost way over target. Their Chinese vendor can meet cost targets, but they open themselves to a huge potential liability and PR nightmare.

For an example of the kind of experiences EV converters were having with Chinese Li-ion cells, see the posts below:
ThunderSky Lithium-Ion Cells
YouTube - Thundersky battery failure in Bob Siebert's AC150 conversion

Here's a datasheet from one of the latest Thundersky batteries. They claim 2000 cycles at 80% DOD, 3000 at 70%. At 80%, that would be about 5.4 years charging once a day, or 2.7 years charging twice a day. At 70% its 8.2 and 4.1 years. PHEVs are probably much morel likely to be charged multiple times per day due to their reduced range. The Google PHEVs are often being charged 3 times a day, which manufacturers will have to account for in their designs. Also bear in mind this is probably only valid at the optimal discharge rate (0.3C) and temperature. Real world operating conditions will be much harsher. Prius NimH are routinely discharged at greater than 15C! PHEV current draw will be considerably higher, though may be a wash due to larger capacity.
http://www.thunder-sky.com/pdf/TS-LFP40.pdf

I'm sure the Chinese manufacturers will eventually get their act together and revolutionize the industry with low cost batteries. I'm not sure we're at that point yet though.

Rob

[Flying White Dutchman]

Sorry for the offtopic qs : but 15C? whats that