Hybrids headed for boom, or bust?

[jkash]

Hybrids headed for boom, or bust?
Toyota big on expansion, but costs, competing engines a factor

Despite a tiny presence in the U.S. car market, hybrid vehicles were the most popular topic at the North American International Auto Show last week as auto executives gauged the future of the gas/electric system and other engine novelties.

After a year with 88,000 hybrid units sold through just three brands — Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Ford Motor Co. — sales of vehicles with gasoline-electric engines are expected to more than double to at least 200,000 units in 2005.

Some rosy forecasts for the end of the decade range from 500,000 units to 1 million. But while pioneer Toyota has aggressive goals to eventually offer the hybrid option on its entire fleet, many major players remain cool on the vehicles, opting instead to promote other forms of fuel-saving technology such as cleaner diesel, hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles and advanced direct injection systems.

Hybrid vehicles twin a combustion engine with an electric motor and battery in which the act of braking captures lost energy, enabling it to save fuel and emit fewer pollutants.

With the hype surrounding hybrids picking up steam and consumers still lining up months to get their hands on Toyota’s Prius sedan, analysts like Thad Malesh at Automotive Technology Research Group are optimistic about their prospects.

Malesh projects U.S. hybrid sales at 1 million units at the turn of the decade — or 6 percent of the overall auto market — with a projected 50 models available by then.

Read entire article by clicking this link.

[skruse]

Hybrids provide a logical progression to vehicle development. Just as the turn signal evolved from a coat hanger-thin wire to sophisticated low and high beam lights - front & rear windshield wiper-washers and cruise control, so will vehicles evolve starting with hybrids:

Conventional ICE to hybrid, to a hybrid that plugs in, to alternative fuel vehicles, including integrating PV panels into the body and window glass. There is not a lack of demand, but the concept of "who will own the sun?" mentality. I originally tried to purchase a RAV4 EV. Toyota cancelled the program before it ever got going citing "lack of demand."

The "lack of demand" is the greatly reduced need for service, use of petroleum and dealer follow-up services. Hybrids will continue to evolve and Detroit in denial will continue to sow the seeds of the demise of every alternative other than ICE oil-based individual vehicles. Hybrids will increasingly be in greater demand as more people realize the ICE only runs about one-half the time. If you want to double your profit (or cut your cost in one-half), double your efficiency.

I frequently encounter questions from well-educated people who state "I hear hybrid vehicles do not get the fuel economy they are supposed to." When I respond that I average 53 mpg, even in cold weather, they seem surprised. It is not what you don't have, but what you do with what you do have that makes the difference.

The "demise of the hybrid" stories assume that fossil fuels will always be available and always be subsidized. Commentators have consistently stated since 1984 that Apple has less than 10% of the market and will soon be out of business.

Driving a hybrid is about possibilities, not end points.

[TonyPSchaefer]

It's typical short-term forecasting. Of course, the hybrids are going to represent a small percentage of automobiles this year, and next year. There just aren't many of them. The Prius didn't make a huge splash in the overall auto sales figures. But it made a ripple. It set things in motion. It got the others thinking.

And even if others are thinking about not doing hybrids, at least they are thinking about hybrids. And while they are thinking that hybrids are fads, they must also be wondering just what will happen if they are wrong and this ripple of a "fad" is catching on faster than they can adapt. One day, they are going to wake up in the 20th century.

[richard schumacher]

Hybrid vehicles twin a combustion engine with an electric motor and battery in which the act of braking captures lost energy, enabling it to save fuel and emit fewer pollutants.

Funny how persistent this error is. Most of the economy and emissions benefit comes from decoupling the engine from the road, allowing it to shut off when not needed and to run in a narrower and more nearly optimal range of RPMs and output power. Regenerative braking, while a freebie and conserving of brake pads, accounts for only a few percent of the fuel economy.

[jayman]

Although I was still a kid, I remember the first OPEC oil embargo. The Big Three had barely been hit by emissions controls - causing the demise of the Factory Hot Rod - and safety standards, when the sudden upsurge in oil prices made the Detroit Land Barge a liability.

Around that time, comical and tiny cars with names like Datsun and Toyota started to sell. They were cheaper, appeared to have good quality, and got way better fuel economy. Dealers couldn't keep up.

Rather than plan for a future of high fuel prices, the Big Three pretended the high fuel prices would be a short-term blip. They also pretended small cars would be a short-term fad.

Remember all the awful attempts the Big Three had to produce an economy car? The Ford Pinto? AMC Pacer?? Ugh.

Remember how the Big Three then brought up patriotism and job losses, somehow it became your patriotic duty to buy American. This was recently recycled.

When that didn't work, the Big Three then tried to blame their workers. You know, they were a bunch of lazy union bums who purposely made poor cars.

Then companies like Toyota built sprawling production plants here in the good 'ole USA, and started cranking out Camry's, Corolla's, and Tundra's with the same high quality any Toyota buyer expected.

The 90's became an odd throwback, what with artificially low fuel prices in North America. It became fashionable to have a Land Barge again, and I like how Chevy pushed this with their Like A Rock ads.

Especially for the red-blooded patriotic Made In Mexico Suburban.

They even play games with APR and "rebates," something I just don't see Toyota or Honda doing. Toyota dealers just can't seem to keep inventory on their lots, while the huge Big Three SUV's and trucks are sitting there forever.

Now, once again, Toyota appears to have met the need for right now, and for the future, instead of p****** and moaning about how hard it is to design a car to get good fuel economy and be practical.

Guess how I have a little innocent fun? I park my Prius at a Chevy or a Ford dealership and casually walk around the lot or in the showroom. Normally, you would be hounded by salespeople. When I pull this stunt, it's so quiet you can hear a pin drop.

[jkash]

I am old enough to remember the OPEC oil embargo. Remember odd/even days? My sister also had a 1973 Pinto. What a piece of trash!

[paprius4030]

I remeber the embargo. But i got around it LOL. I worked at a small airport and I ran my 1970 Duster on airplane gas.

[jayman]

I remeber the embargo. But i got around it LOL. I worked at a small airport and I ran my 1970 Duster on airplane gas.

Oh, how I wished I had worked at an airport!

Seriously, didn't the 100 or 120 avgas leave nasty lead deposits in your motor?

[victor]

Funny how persistent this error is. Most of the economy and emissions benefit comes from decoupling the engine from the road, allowing it to shut off when not needed and to run in a narrower and more nearly optimal range of RPMs and output power. Regenerative braking, while a freebie and conserving of brake pads, accounts for only a few percent of the fuel economy.

I cant say I agree 100% on this. You may be correct if you live in a flat place, but if you live were there are a lot of hills, then the recouped power of regenerative breaking is significant. You still spend (about) the same fuel going up the hill (perhaps) but coming down, you get a lot of power back which helps you up the next hill and so on.

The benifits depend on where you mainly drive.