Toyota's Sets PHEV Release Date

[drees]

Originally Posted by hill

Toyota has already said they're sticking with nickel metal hydride, for one thing.

Just minor correction here - they said they're sticking with NiMH for hybrids - PHEVs and EVs will require Lithium batteries because of the power/energy to weight/size advantage.

[hampdenwireless]

Originally Posted by DeadPhish

That $7500 Tax Credit is illusionary as many here found with the Prius Tax Credit. If you are subject to AMT you probably will lose the entire credit. Who is most likely to be subject to the AMT?....the well-to-do....those who can actually afford to spend $40000+ on a commuter.

Its not going to be that high. $39,900 - $7500 plus in many states they probably will not be sales taxed or that will be refundable as well.
We don't know.

$32,400 is right around where I would consider the purchase.

A Prius PHEV at $29,000 - $3750 credit = $26,250 (half due to smaller battery) would be a nice deal as well.

The AMT does not effect as many people in 2009 and 2010 due to the ARRA.

[hill]

Originally Posted by drees

Just minor correction here - they said they're sticking with NiMH for hybrids - PHEVs and EVs will require Lithium batteries because of the power/energy to weight/size advantage.

Source / link ?
First, even the heavy clunky RAV4-ev with its 780 pound nickel metal hydride pack could travel 100-125 miles or more ... so perhaps you can go into more detail than power/energy to weight/size advantage cursory comment.

As for cost? Consider that back maybe 8 years ago or so ... the price was $225 nickel metal hydride to $350 lithium per kWh, according to the California Air Resources Board.

Consider the 700 lb NiMH pack, amortizing its CARB-estimated $13,000 cost at 6.5 cents per mile, no Lithium battery pack has so far exceeded 50,000 miles in a production car. While Lithium is lighter, you have to consider life-cycle costing, and Lithium's slight advantage in weight is not worth the shorter life, thermal and toxic dangers, and wildly more expensive life-cycle cost. Lithium certainly has promise, but it aint a silver bullet.

Toyota is up on Nickel metal hydride for a reason.


.

[DeadPhish]

Originally Posted by hampdenwireless

Its not going to be that high. $39,900 - $7500 plus in many states they probably will not be sales taxed or that will be refundable as well.
We don't know.

$32,400 is right around where I would consider the purchase.

A Prius PHEV at $29,000 - $3750 credit = $26,250 (half due to smaller battery) would be a nice deal as well.

The AMT does not effect as many people in 2009 and 2010 due to the ARRA.

The biggies, NY / Cali / NJ, are not states that refund monies out of the goodness of their cold dark hearts. Sales taxes in these states are 8+% meaning another $3000+ in local taxes has to be tacked onto the acquisition price. These states need the funds too badly to give them away. Yes some states certainly do; CT, WV, CO come to mind I believe.

The buyers still must qualify for a $40000+ loan with the lenders - or come up with a significant amount of cash . This immediately limits the scope of who can buy regardless of the Tax Credit. In today's new financial environment fewer and fewer buyers qualify for this amount of a loan. Some well-to-do buyers certainly will be able to do so. Again, these are the very ones that are most effected by AMT.

In your Prius calculation you didn't take into account the cost of amortizing the R&D for the PHEV system. You've got to look at adding upwards of about $10,000 to your estimate. Those costs have to be taken into account. $1 Billion / 100,000 units.

I've been pointing these 'hidden hooks' out for at least three years now. When the PHEV Prius does actually arrive with a price tag of ~$37,000, a range of 15-20 EV miles and a very low level of real interest ( meaning actual sales ) a lot of the pundits will be saying "Epic Fail". This won't be an issue only for Toyota.

GM is pinning ALL their hopes on the Volt at $40000. At least Toyota has the hugely successful traditional Prius to keep churning out sales and profits. GM nas nothing to fall back on if the Volt isn't wildly successful immediately.

I don't see either vehicle being anything more than a curiosity and an ultra-niche vehicle.

[drees]

Originally Posted by hill

Source / link ?

Green Car Congress: Toyota to Stay with NiMH for Mass-Market Hybrids

I thought there was more detail in that report - I may be reading in between the lines a bit there.

Originally Posted by hill

First, even the heavy clunky RAV4-ev with its 780 pound nickel metal hydride pack could travel 100-125 miles or more ... so perhaps you can go into more detail than power/energy to weight/size advantage cursory comment.

Not sure if this is the latest data (the Lithium power/weight ratio looks low) but here's some quick data:
Nickel-metal hydride battery - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lithium-ion battery - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Originally Posted by hill

As for cost? Consider that back maybe 8 years ago or so ... the price was $225 nickel metal hydride to $350 lithium per kWh, according to the California Air Resources Board.

Are you sure? Because only recently could decent Lithium cells be bought for ~$350 / kWh.

Originally Posted by hill

Consider the 700 lb NiMH pack, amortizing its CARB-estimated $13,000 cost at 6.5 cents per mile, no Lithium battery pack has so far exceeded 50,000 miles in a production car. While Lithium is lighter, you have to consider life-cycle costing, and Lithium's slight advantage in weight is not worth the shorter life, thermal and toxic dangers, and wildly more expensive life-cycle cost. Lithium certainly has promise, but it aint a silver bullet.

It all depends on the exact chemistry of the Lithium battery. Some lithium cells are significantly more energy dense than NiMH. Some are only slightly more so, but are also much more durable and have higher power / weight ratios.

Just an example of how much lighter Lithium is compared to NiMH - The Tesla pack weighs about 900 lbs and stores up to 53 kWh. The RAV4-EV pack has half the energy but weighs nearly as much.

[Cacti]

Has anyone read the book "Plug-In Electric Vehicles, What Role For Washington?" Covers all the issues.