Is the plug in hybrid the end game vehicle-

[burritos]

for the next century? Try out this chicken and egg logic and check for flawed thinking:

Chicken: We, the Chinese, and the Indians ignore GW's speech of oil addiction and continue to consume oil at an ever increasing pace.
Egg: Oil prices go up to $6-10/gal over then next 2-3 decades.
Chicken: Hybrids become very prevalent(kind of like the 20-30% in Japan).
Egg: Technology pushes for even more fuel efficient vehicles: ie. Plug in hybrids. Thus the plug in hybrid of tomorrow will be what the regular hybrid is today.
Chicken: Slowly as plug in hybrids increase(sort of what hybrids are doing today), the demand for grid energy will increase which will increase cost of grid energy.
Egg: Increased fossil fuel energy costs will make renewables more competitive.
Chicken: As renewables get more competitive, large solar companies will scale production, thus making them cheaper.
Egg: Cheaper solar panels will become affordable household 'must haves' similar to once was prohitively expensive vcrs, dvd players, cell phones, computers and large screen tv's.
Chicken: Increasing use of affordable solar energy, will preclude the necessity to buy gas engine only vehicles. Might as well use the energy your producing on the top of your roof.
Egg: A new synergistic relationship of solar/plug-in hybrid will foster growth in both industries eventually obviating the addiction to oil.
Chicken: scaling of plug-ins will set new standard of vehicular transportation.

This of course is predicated on peak oil. If we do locate new ever abundant sources of oil, then the above will just be a pipe dream.

[EricGo]

New Mexico approved a tax credit for solar last week, prompting me to go through the figures again this morning. NM is the land of sun, btw. Well, other than AZ

An installed 4 kW array is about $40K, and will make about 500 kWh monthly.

At current local rates, that saves $500 annualy.
Optimistically, 50% of the array can be offset by tax credits, so it will cost $20,000

IMO, lousy deal for me. I think money spent on conservation (particularly in my 1100 kwH/month hog of a house) will be a much smarter move.

[burritos]

Originally posted by EricGo@Mar 9 2006, 05:56 PM

An installed 4 kW array is about $40K, and will make about 500 kWh monthly.

[snapback]222929[/snapback]

That seems kind of expensive. Our 3.3 KW system was for 18k after rebates and credits.

[tripp]

Well Peak oil will happen. It's just a matter of when. There's a lot of debate about that but even the conservative estimates put it at around 2047. I'm sure Exxon would beg to differ but they have an avested interest in claiming peak oil is a myth so I wouldn't take their word for it.

I think cheap renewables will cause a paradigm (pronounced para-dig-um) shift in the way people view energy. The nature outcome of this will be a sense of ownership of energy by joe six pack. I think people have a more rental mindset right now. As people can produce what they need themselves they'll begin selling energy and naturally using it to power vehicles. Probably the early stages of this will see the PHEV as the vehicle of choice as gas is still somewhat cheap and renewables are too expensive to "go hog wild" without heavy subsidies. As battery/ultracap technologies improve and the prices come down I think that EVs will eclipse the PHEV.

[emuman]

hmmm.....im gonna figure out how any KW we use each month, and can someone tell me how big of a system we'll need, btw i live in houston texas......

[tochatihu]

Originally posted by emuman@Mar 9 2006, 04:00 PM
hmmm.....im gonna figure out how any KW we use each month, and can someone tell me how big of a system we'll need, btw i live in houston texas......

[snapback]222956[/snapback]

Off-topic for the thread and forum, but perhaps of general interest. In any case, I'm glad you asked. Start with a solar energy potential map, such as:

http://www.i4at.org/surv/solmap.htm

Then google up some solar panel suppliers and collect data on panel prices and efficiency %. Then you'll have an idea of the panel cost vs. average monthly kwh production.

Then see what governmental incentives are available for you, at:

http://www.dsireusa.org/library/includes/m...geID=1&State=TX

Refine your goals a bit. Do you want a small grid-tied system that will just shave off the cost of summer electric air conditioning peaks, a larger one that will spin your electric meter backwards on all sunny days, or one that will work "stand-alone" all the time even after 10 cloudy days? The last will be the largest, and include a substantial cost (dollar and maintenance) in storage batteries.

To help refine your goals, read through the archives at:

http://www.homepower.com/

Or better yet, subscribe to their magazine. They're nice people. There you will find much information about inverters, which are a necessary component of converting the solar panels' low-voltage DC to the AC your house runs on. If there are big trees on the south side of your house, you will need to plan around them.

Now you are very well-prepared to have a sit-down with some local solar energy contractors. In fact you will be so well-prepared compared to people who usually come through the door, they will say "hey these Prius folks are awful smart". It's likely that they will further improve your plan based on their local experiences, even if you decide to do some or most of the work yourself.

DAS

[darelldd]

Originally posted by EricGo@Mar 9 2006, 02:56 PM
New Mexico approved a tax credit for solar last week, prompting me to go through the figures again this morning. NM is the land of sun, btw. Well, other than AZ

An installed 4 kW array is about $40K, and will make about 500 kWh monthly.

At current local rates, that saves $500 annualy.
Optimistically, 50% of the array can be offset by tax credits, so it will cost $20,000

IMO, lousy deal for me. I think money spent on conservation (particularly in my 1100 kwH/month hog of a house) will be a much smarter move.

[snapback]222929[/snapback]

Hmmm. Well, no. We can certainly do better than $40k for a 4kW system!

There are few investments that will beat solar. The return is higher than the stock market has been historically, yet folks keep investing there and don't get the planet-saving benefits! It isn't as simple as you've noted here. Yes it is expensive. And yes it is worth it. You'll certainly get a lot more out of $20k invested in PV than you do in any automobile.

[darelldd]

Is the plug in hybrid the end game vehicle for the next century?

No... or at least I sure hope not! We aren't setting our goals high enough. Why do we want to drag around gasoline and piston engines when we don't have to? At this stage of the game we're doing it for exactly two reasons that I know of.
1. Gas is cheap
2. Gas gives us the warm-fuzzies, and EVs (or anything beyond the status quo) scares the snot out of us.

This resistant Prius driver hopes and even expects that we'll eventually pull our collective heads out of our butts and see the light. We can drive *without* gas. Without ANY liquid fuel. Will we get there in the next century? Why not? We were already there in the LAST century!

[burritos]

Originally posted by darelldd@Mar 9 2006, 09:48 PM
No... or at least I sure hope not! We aren't setting our goals high enough. Why do we want to drag around gasoline and piston engines when we don't have to? At this stage of the game we're doing it for exactly two reasons that I know of.
1. Gas is cheap
2. Gas gives us the warm-fuzzies, and EVs (or anything beyond the status quo) scares the snot out of us.

This resistant Prius driver hopes and even expects that we'll eventually pull our collective heads out of our butts and see the light. We can drive *without* gas. Without ANY liquid fuel. Will we get there in the next century? Why not? We were already there in the LAST century!

[snapback]223018[/snapback]

Well, as long as there is oil, we're going to burn it. Alternative fuels won't be used to help the environment. It's increased use will be purely a function of it's cost vs fossil fuels. I know you want EV to be the end game, but I doubt Exxon and it's brethren will turn off the spigots when people start plugging into the grid. Only when we run out of oil(and I mean REALLY run out of oil like $30-40 a gallon) will the EV become mode of transportation of choice. But I surmise this will take over a hundred years, that's why I was asking if plug in EV is the end game vehicle of this coming 100 years, not the following hundred years.

[hdrygas]

End Game no it is a bridge. We need something renewable and not carbon. After that we should start pumping vegetable oil back into the ground.