The Great PHEV Race....who wins for you?

[efusco]

Ok, Chevy/GM's come to the forefront with the Volt Concept that seems to be more than concept and all indications suggesting they'll actually bring this thing to market at some point in the future. Sure, there are skeptics (and rightly so). But let's pretend for a little while.....

Scenario 1)The Volt is released with specs close to their current ones (40 mile range, maybe 80mph top end speed) in Sept. of '09 after an official announement in March of '09 with a 'loaded' price of $32,500. The 3G Prius had been released in Oct. of '08, but not as a plug-in. Rumors persist that they will start selling a plug-in version, but nothing official is out yet as to the electric-only range (rumors say 9 miles) or top speed in electric or cost (though expected to be about the same as the Volt). Do you get your name on a waiting list in March to be one of the first to own the Volt. Do you wait out the rush (remember how hard it was to get a Prius for the first 2 years) and see what Toyota does with the PHEV Prius?

Scenario 2) The PHEV Prius comes out in late '08 but has a maximum electric only range of 9 miles and a top electric only speed of 42mph but city rating 80mpg/combined 70mpg. The Volt is 'delayed' as announced by GM with wishy-washy excuses about battery issues but they 'hope' to have it available in early 2010.

Assume your current Prius is still in good condition and you're not pressed for a new car. Both have prices in your range...what do you do...jump on the 'first available', get the Prius no matter what, get the Volt no matter what, or will other factors influence your decision? Please elaborate on your reasoning.



To get discussion started, here's the answer I posted in the Yahoo! Chevy Volt forum....

I think I'd be tempted to lean toward seeing what Toyota puts out before going for
the Volt. If the Prius isn't at least 60mph and 9 mile range I'd be
darn tempted to go for the Volt at it's current rumored specs. I
think it's a matter of confidence in Toyota with 10 years of hybrid
experience under their belt vs. GM and their years of bashing hybrids,
Toyota, the Prius and producing nothing but promises....

And there's always the 'but'...if they can do what they say this thing
will do at a price-point near/under $30K I'd jump ship in a second.
40 mile range could allow me to use no gas at all in my usual commute
and very little gas even for my longer routine trips.

[Beryl Octet]

I don't know that for either scenario, I get too excited about rushing out in full-gotta-haveit-mode for a PHEV. For your scenario 1, I'd like the Volt to be out a model year before I purchase (sorry GM fans) to let someone else get the bleeding edge bugs out. For your scenario 2, an EV mode with only 9 mile range and 42 MPH is not going to cut it enough to get me out of my current Prius assuming it is still trouble free and getting respectable mileage.

There's a lot of "it depends" with any kind of answer to your question. If gas is expensive enough, then either option might look much much better than it seems today with $2.25 gas. I also feel like cars shouldn't be a disposable item, so the longer I keep one, the better it is in some sense for the environment.

I'm probably with you in that I'm more willing to gamble on the Toyota product, where I'd want to see the Volt prove itself. I'm quite convinced that Toyota could build a decent if not excellent PHEV Prius today if they wanted to. Chevy, I'm not quite so sure of, they seem to have a lot more catching up to do, and what I've heard of their existing hybrids does not seem to impress me that much.

[Godiva]

The closest thing I'd go with is scenario 2.

My Prius is fine and I'm good with keeping it for ten years, as I've done with all of my previous cars. However I would consider trading it in sooner if the Prius comes out with LiIon batteries or a plug-in or both.

Really not interested in the Volt. The Volt sounds fine for a second car, but I only have one car and it just isn't enough to meet my single car needs. The 40 mile range is the dealbreaker.

[Allannde]

I think that the big issue in this PHEV discussion is the expiration of the NiMH patent in 2009 with the restrictions on the size of traction batteries which are presently in force. The Li Ion battery is still an unproven technology as none have been in use for a significant length of time in a vehicle. NiMH batteries have been proven and while they are heavier, they are not insurmountably so.

[Godiva]

If EV technology is going to support a car that is acceptable to more people, then battery technology is going to have to advance. The same old battery, proven or not, is not going to do it.

I expect eventually to have an EV that can do what my Prius can do now. Over 100 mile range on a charge, quick recharge, freeway speeds and still have the same cargo capacity I have now.

Whatever the Volt ends up being and whenever the Volt is introduced, there will be Japanese counterpart, either Toyota or Honda, and it will in some way be superior. Whether it is range, cargo capacity, speed, recharge, whatever, I don't know. GM should be the leader, but they're not. They are scrambling to play catch up.

[efusco]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva @ Feb 17 2007, 12:03 AM) [snapback]391916[/snapback]</div>

Really not interested in the Volt. The Volt sounds fine for a second car, but I only have one car and it just isn't enough to meet my single car needs. The 40 mile range is the dealbreaker. [/b]

Godiva, just to be sure you understand, the Volt is a PHEV...it's range is expected to be 600-700 miles w/~60mpg avg. on a tank of gas. The 40 mile electric only range is the daily commute range without the ICE ever kicking in. It's supposed to be an all purpose vehicle.

[mcbrunnhilde]

I absolutely love the concept. I envy Darrell his RAV4EV (or anyone who has an electric car!). Almost all of my daily driving would be within the battery range, and I'd really like NOT to buy gas! :-)

That being said, I sure hope Toyota comes out with something similar. I'd love the Prius to have a 40- or 50-mile EV range before the gasoline engine kicks in. I know GM has EV experience with the EV1, but I trust Toyota's technology WAY over GM's. Also, the Prius was a big purchase, and I will probably need to drive it for at least 7 or 8 more years while I save up enough money to replace it.

[chogan]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Feb 17 2007, 12:26 AM) [snapback]391902[/snapback]</div>

Scenario 1)The Volt is released with specs close to their current ones (40 mile range, maybe 80mph top end speed) in Sept. of '09 after an official announement in March of '09 with a 'loaded' price of $32,500. The 3G Prius had been released in Oct. of '08, but not as a plug-in. Rumors persist that they will start selling a plug-in version, but nothing official is out yet as to the electric-only range (rumors say 9 miles) or top speed in electric or cost (though expected to be about the same as the Volt). Do you get your name on a waiting list in March to be one of the first to own the Volt. Do you wait out the rush (remember how hard it was to get a Prius for the first 2 years) and see what Toyota does with the PHEV Prius?

Scenario 2) The PHEV Prius comes out in late '08 but has a maximum electric only range of 9 miles and a top electric only speed of 42mph but city rating 80mpg/combined 70mpg. The Volt is 'delayed' as announced by GM with wishy-washy excuses about battery issues but they 'hope' to have it available in early 2010.
[/b]

At first glance I though the Volt was a traditional midsize passenger car. But that's dead wrong. Classed as a compact car, slightly smaller footprint than the Prius, about half a foot lower, specs say it seats 4 (not 5). The legroom (presumably rear) is listed at 31.5", versus 38.6" in the Prius. The rear legroom is an inch shorter than the Cobalt on which the body is based. Reviews I see of the Cobalt say the rear seats are basically for children, that's it. And, it has a 160 HP motor, much greater peak output than the Prius, 0 - 60 in 8 seconds.

From my stodgy perspective, the Volt is a sporty small car with vestigial rear sets. That is not a good fit with my lifestyle. Almost all of our driving is to-ing and fro-ing around town with the kids. My son will soon be too tall to be comfortable in a small rear seat. And, sitting half a foot lower in SUV-land is going to make it that much harder to drive.

So, from the standpoint of utility, the Prius wins.

On the other hand, we want an EV. Take the Volt, run the gas tank dry, don't refill it, and voila, instant EV. Really, I'd worry about varnishing up the fuel system by letting the gas sit in the tank for months.

Another thing I'd want to be sure of first is that the Volt, operating in electric mode, actually reduced C02 emissions, relative to a Prius or PHEV Prius. The C02 reduction from going to electric propulsion is not that huge if you start with an efficient baseline like the Prius - maybe one-third less C02 in going from Prius to a 30 mile PHEV Prius, at US national electrical generation mix. So if the Volt were heavy enough or inefficient enough, it might not actually generate less C02 than a PHEV Prius. I don't know whether electric motor size affects low-load efficiency the way gas engine size does, but I'd guess not. So, I'm guessing it would reduce my C02 output. But I'd like to see hard data on that. If, in fact, it generated more C02 than a PHEV Prius, then I'd be reluctant to buy it. But chances are that it'll generate modest C02 savings.

From the standpoint of efficiency, I'd guess the Volt has an edge over the 9 mile PHEV Prius.

In the grand scheme of things, a 40 mile Volt is farther down the road or technology than a 9 mile PHEV Prius, particularly with speed limitations on the Prius EV mode. Basically, it makes the PHEV Prius look like a modestly successful retrofit, where the Volt is a greenfield design. As I understand these things, you'd end up running the ICE routinely in the PHEV Prius. The Volt just looks smarter to me.

From the standpoint of technology, in terms of the movement toward EVs, the Volt wins. It is an EV, with an onboard generator set.

So for me it comes down to this: would I buy the EV technology I want, in a less useful package than the Prius? If it weren't for the lack of rear seating, I'd opt for the Volt in both scenarios. As it stands, though, what's the point of buying a car that won't meet my needs? I'd reluctantly opt for the Prius over the Volt based purely on the lack of functionality of the Volt, not on the technology. But if GM would put that tech in a slightly bigger package, I'd buy it over a PHEV Prius.

And I still say that an EV or PHEV or hybrid minvan is where the next big chunk of the market is, and that the car companies are missing a big opportunity there.

[efusco]

Excellent summary Chogan....I wasn't aware of the rear seat limitations...that would exclude the Volt for my family as well.

[Beryl Octet]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(efusco @ Feb 17 2007, 10:23 AM) [snapback]391996[/snapback]</div>

Excellent summary Chogan....I wasn't aware of the rear seat limitations...that would exclude the Volt for my family as well.
[/b]

Well, something about debating the rear seating room of a concept car just seems a bit towards the silly end. Looking at the specs for the Cobalt on edmunds.com, I see

Front Head Room: 38.7 in.
Front Hip Room: 49.5 in.
Front Shoulder Room: 53 in.
Front Leg Room: 42 in.

Rear Head Room: 35.7 in.
Rear Shoulder Room: 49 in.
Rear Hip Room: 46.1 in.
Rear Leg Room: 32.2 in.

Luggage Capacity: 13.9 cu. ft. Maximum Seating: 5


By comparison, an '07 Prius

Front Head Room: 39.1 in.
Front Hip Room: 51 in.
Front Shoulder Room: 55 in.
Front Leg Room: 41.9 in.

Rear Head Room: 37.3 in.
Rear Shoulder Room: 52.9 in.
Rear Hip Room: 51.6 in.
Rear Leg Room: 38.6 in.

Luggage Capacity: 14.4 cu. ft. Maximum Seating: 5

Yeah, the Cobalt's a little smaller, but not that much smaller. But seriously, given that the Volt's just a concept for now, who can say?