Future value of our cars?

[PriusMatt]

I'm curious as to what will happen to the financial value of our cars when the 3rd generation comes out.

Obviously, we'll take a hit, but how much?

Take for example a car worth $25,000 now. Will it go to $20k? $15k?

I remember that my dad used to tell me that as a general rule, a new car would lose 1/2 of it's original value after 3 years. But of course, cars in high demand are exceptions. Toyota and Lexus have been known for higher than average resale values, but I'm really curious when Toyota comes out with an 80-100 mile/gallon car how much our cars will go down.

(I imagine the 1st generation took a big hit when the 2nd generation came out. Perhaps someone who experienced that will have relevant insight.)

p.s. - I am focusing on financial value here, so save the "value of doing something good for the environment now" kind of stuff for another thread.

[markgunn]

I don't think the 3rd Gen will seriously impact the used car value. Assuming no significant issues arise that impact Prius as they age, I think they'll be an attractive used car option, especially for folks looking to get out of the gas guzzling stream.

Longer term, Hybrids are a stop gap technology, and all gas consuming cars, even Hybrids are going the way of the dinosaur. I think this will actually happen relatively quickly, in the next 5 years. This will come about through new technology readiness, alternative fuel network having been established, continued and increasing hysteria around global warming, and consequently government policies. Whether its in 5 years or a little longer, buying a gas consuming car will be an unattractive option.

[FL_Prius_Driver]

You win both ways. If the 3rd gen comes out with 70 or better MPG, then they will be so hard to get that the present Pri'i will hold their value. If the 3rd gen comes out only slightly better, then it will just be seen as a extension of the present Pri'i.

What you have overlooked is that the resale value will be a lot more dependent on what gas does rather than what the 3rd gen does. If gas prices drop greatly, then your resale value will be average. (Think!)

[KTPhil]

It will drop a lot, but this is only because of the present demand/supply situation has kept it artificially high. Priuses have retained a very high fraction of their new value because of demand, but as production increases (and alternatives are introduced like diesels and other hybrids) this imbalance will work itself out. We are riding a crest in value-retention, and it will drop to more reaonable levels as supply meets demand. If the new models are a significant improvement in range or mpg (as is expected with lithium ion batteries or a plug-in alternative), the more "ordinary" Prius will drop in polularity.

[morpheusx]

as long as a problem doesn't creep up we should all be in the same shape as present, and alot of people prefer to miss the first year or two of a new generation regardless of model to wait for the design flaws and bugs to be worked out.

[alexstarfire]

Well, my $.02 is that when gen 3, actually gen 4 really, comes out that this gen will go up in resale a little bit, only a little. Gas prices will be higher when it comes out, since gas prices have gone up every year, and the gen 3 will probably cause a lot of commotion and will get limited very quickly. Since they obviously shouldn't be making this gen car anymore, I'm assuming, people will start buying the used Prii. I imagine this will only be for a couple months, but it could well happen for a year depending on if there is a waiting list for the next gen Prius before it comes out.

[joe1347]

The future value of a used Prius will likely depend on whether gasoline becomes much more expensive along with whether gasoline supply disruptions (gas lines) become the norm in a few years. Spend some time reading the linked news articles as well as the posts on peakoil and oildrum, and the last thing you'll be worrying about is the value of your Prius.

http://www.theoildrum.com/

http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html

Instead, you'll discover something 'real' that Americans should be worried about or even fear as opposed to the make believe 'terrorists hiding under our beds' propaganda designed to induce fear from our Government. One of the major issues facing the world is whether oil supplies will be peaking in the next few years (aka, early peak) and what a surprise, few if any of our politicians are talking about it - other than the dirty secret as to why we're still in Iraq.

[Tideland Prius]

I don't know. The question is, how many Prius owners will give up theirs? Sure they'll be some who want the new higher mpg Prius but not everyone will trade. Some will simply add the new one to their fleet, some won't trade because they don't want to spend, others won't because they can't afford it and lastly there are those that are damn happy with the current one.

So, resale stay high for the lack of supply of used Priuses but it may also drop because people will think that it's "old" technology and now that they've finally got their heads out of the sand, they want the latest and greatest.

[jdenenberg]

The answer is simple. Has the 2001-2003 Prius dropped in value because of the 2004+ Prius (a major redesign)?

JeffD

[Godiva]

I'm not too worried about resale. It will take a dip but still remain pretty high. Why? Well, those that can afford to will buy a gen 3. But more and more people will want a Prius and not be able to afford a new gen 3. But they will be able to afford a used Prius. And there will continue to be more people that want a used Prius than used Prii to go around. So with supply low and demand high.....prices will still be above average.

Now...I've got HOV stickers on my car. They're good until 2011 but also raise resale value. So I have to decide whether I'll trade the car in for a new 2009 or wait until they've got a plug-in option or LiIon batteries or both. BTW the more I learn about LiIon the more I think they're not going to use them in the Prius.