Looking to buy - 08 Prius vs. 09 Jetta TDI

[DaveinOlyWA]

ya traffic is the worst to deal with. a change in my work schedule did significantly increase my gas mileage although the reason was so i could share daycare for my son between me and his grandmother... but it did have the effect of letting me commute to work in the morning nearly traffic free slightly uphill, but doing 10-20 mph stop and go most of the way home in the afternoon ( i do 10 hour shifts so i go home same time as everyone else 4:45 pm, but go to work at 5:45 am) so its coast along slightly downhill which would normally destroy my mileage (ask anyone...stop and go kills the average) so i do have an advantage.

[GatorJZ]

VW does include all scheduled maintenance during the base warranty period which at least helps even out the price differential. But, get the Prius.

[miscrms]

Originally Posted by reewrd

found them on a website where someone had mentioned that VW had an independent company redo the governments estimated numbers which came out too low in VW's opinion. don't know if they are right or not, i am assuming the 38mpg city for the tdi that's all, but honestly after reading these posts, i don't think there's much to talk about. now i am leaning heavly toward the prius - thanks so much

Mileage
Below is the quote from the VW press release. EPA is 29/40 or 33 combined, their independent tester got 38/44 or probably about 40 combined. People were hoping for 50s or 60s before the official numbers came out.

While the Environmental Protection Agency estimates the Jetta TDI at an economical 29 mpg City and 40 mpg Highway, Volkswagen went a step further to show the true fuel economy of the Jetta TDI. Leading third-party certifier, AMCI, has tested the Jetta TDI and found it performed 24 percent better in real world conditions, achieving 38 mpg in the City and 44 mpg on the Highway.*

Its interesting to note that the EPA rating is almost exactly the same as the 2006, so one would think real world performance might be similar. The only data base I can find for the tdi's is the one through fueleconomy.gov. The average of the 2004-2006 is about 41mpg for 62 vehicles. For the wagon its about 39mpg based on only 6 vehicles worth of data. For the prius there is a database of over 1600 vehicles currently averaging 47.5mpg. Not sure how they compute the average though, last time I downloaded the data into excel and computed a mile weighted average I got closer to 49mpg, while they were still reporting 47.5mpg.
Hybrid Mileage Database - GreenHybrid

For one last set of data points here are some reviewer results:
Jetta TDI:
Edmunds: 40.0 mpg 2005 Volkswagen Jetta GLS TDI Long-Term Test
Edmunds: 32 mpg Follow-Up Test: 2002 Volkswagen Jetta TDI GLS
Consumer Reports: 34 mpg ConsumerReports.org - Small cars, Volkswagen Jetta 2/06
Car and Driver: 33/42 mpg
The Frugalympics - Sedans/Comparison Test/Reviews/Car and Driver - Car And Driver
Motor Trend: 42.3 mpg (90hp version)
High Mileage Hybrids: 2002 Volkswagen Jetta 1.9L TDI - Motor Trend
Average: 37 mpg

Prius:
Edmunds: 48.3 mpg Hybrid Comparison Test: 2006 Honda Civic vs. 2005 Toyota Prius
Edmunds: 40.4 mpg Long-Term Test: 2004 Toyota Prius
Consumer Reports: 44 mpg
Car Model Review - Consumer Reports
Car and Driver: 52/50 mpg (54 mpg mixed)
The Frugalympics - Sedans/Comparison Test/Reviews/Car and Driver - Car And Driver
Motor Trend: 53 mpg
112 0405 Road Test 2004 Honda Civic Hybrid 2004 Toyota Prius 2004 Honda Insight 2003 Toyota Prius Z Fuel Economy Test Chart Photos - Motor Trend Magazine
Average: 47.5 mpg

Reliability
This would be my biggest concern with the new TDI. This is a completely new design that is really pushing the envelope. It may be great, but given VWs track record I would like to see a couple of years of data first. Based on Consumer Reports data, the new 5 cyl Jettas do seem to be somewhat more reliable, now ranking "average" but with only 3 years of history. The turbo 4cyl version continues to rate poorly, with even the '07 version receiving CRs lowest reliability rating. For the TDIs they show frequent problems with the electrical, engine and fuel systems up through '04, then getting somewhat better. Hard to say if thats because they improved, or they just haven't had enough time to have problems develop. Theoretically the diesel engine will run pretty much for ever, its just a question of how much you are going to spend on maintenance and repairs along the way. By comparison, CR rates every Prius since '01 with its highest rating for overall reliability.

Total Ownership Cost
Particularly when comparing the Prius to diesels I think you need to look at more than just fuel costs, due to the increased maintenance and potential for increased repair costs. Since there is no data out yet for the 2009s, we can only infer from the '06s. Edmunds puts the 5 year cost of ownership for an '06 Jetta TDI Sedan at $41,636, vs. $34,702 for the '06 Prius. The key differences are ~$2,000 more for maintenance and repairs, and ~$4,000 more for fuel. And, I honestly think Edmunds significantly over-estimates the maintenance and repair costs for the Prius. The recommended service for the Prius is oil & filter every 7500 miles until 120k miles. Then you have to change the spark plugs and some of the fluids. There are also some air filters, tires and wiper blades in there somewhere too. I pay about $150 per year, plus maybe a $400 set of tires in 5 years, so lets say $1150. Consumer Reports puts the five year maintenance & repairs on an '08 Prius at $1500, which sounds about right. Edmunds has it at almost $6k, not sure where they came up with that. So if the Prius number is high, that would widen the gap even more. If the TDI can achieve better fuel economy that would help close it back a bit.

Emissions:
While it is certainly true that this new VW TDI will be significantly cleaner than its predecessors, calling it clean seems like a bit of a stretch to me. As I understand it T2B5 is the dirtiest emissions bin now allowable by law. That puts the new Jetta TDI in the same class as the Chrysler Town&Country, Jeep Commander, Dodge RAM 1500 Hemi, Chrysler 300 SRT-8, Dodge Viper, Lincoln Town Car, Hummer H3, Cadillac Escalade 6.2L, Chevy Tahoe 6.2L, Corvette, Ferrari F430, Porsche GT3, and the Land Rover LR3 to name a few. Granted they have lots of other company in this bin, but I think you'd be hard pressed to call any of these cars green. The '06 TDI Jetta Wagon compared to an '06 Prius put out 55 times more Nox, more CO, more NMOGs, and had composite smog emissions (HC-NM+NOx-COMP) almost 28 times higher. Additionally there are significant particulate emissions not found in the Prius. While its true that all cars have potentially significant unmeasured fine particle emissions, the Prius is generally thought to be improved in this regard due to the computer being between you and the gas engine. While the '09 emissions should be better, particularly on the particulate front, other emissions will only need to decrease by about half to meet T2B5. This will still leave it abou 10-20 times worse than the Prius. And keep in mind while the TDI will be state of the art, the Prius is fairly old technology. By comparison the more recently developed Camry Hybrid and Lexus Hybrids are actually even lower despite their higher fuel consumption. This is somewhat born out by the only "clean diesel" on the market, the Mercedes E320BT. Its emissions compared to the Lexus GS450h are 300X higher for CO, 12X higher for NOx, and 8X higher for NMOGs. Lastly, along with the higher cost of diesel, there is also more CO2 emitted per gallon. At the EPA 33 mpg, the Jetta TDI would emit 306 g/mi of CO2 compared to the Prius' 191 g/mi. Even at 40 mpg the TDI would still emit 252 g/mi.

Biofuels:
This is the main reason I was so interested in diesels (and still am in the long run). Bio-diesel seems to hold a lot more promise than ethanol from what I can see. Its not without its challenges though. Running straight WVO is nearly carbon neutral, but does not decrease emissions (except maybe sulfur, which should be low now on ULSD anyway). Running BD from WVO is very cool, but not much better on emissions than WVO and not scalable to a national level (we need to eat a lot more fries to drive 3,000,000,000,000 miles per year on fryer grease!). Running BD from virgin sources reduces most emissions by 2-3X (not zero emissions as many believe) but it is not carbon neutral, and can be very environmentally damaging. There are also issues with being able to produce enough volume at a reasonable price without impacting food supplies. There are ideas out there for large scale sustainable BD manufacturing (cellulostic, algae etc) but none of these are anywhere near ready for commercial volume production. On top of all this, VW will void your warranty (engine & fuel systems at least) if you run any more than 5% virgin BD, and any amount of SVO, WVO, or home made BD.

If you are leaning heavily toward the Prius I think you are leaning the right way

Rob

[miscrms]

BTW if energy independence is a concern, diesel also appears to require more barrels of oil to produce. At 33 mpg the Jetta TDI would consume 11.9 barrels (499.8 gal) compared to the Prius' 7.4 barrels (311 gal). At 40mpg the Jetta TDI would use ~9.8 barrels (412 gal). Even at parity of 46mpg, the Jetta would consume ~8.5 barrels (358 gallons). I assume this is a product of the higher energy/carbon content of diesel?

Along the same lines, I think there is a fundamental supply problem. You can turn diesel into gasoline, but not vice-versa. If diesels become more popular, demand for diesel will up and production of diesel will have to go up. In the short term this can be accommodated by not cracking diesel into gas, but eventually you will have to start consuming more oil and producing surplus gasoline. Increased supply of gasoline and decreased demand (by nature of the increased demand for diesel) will further widen the price gap between gasoline and diesel, putting more negative pressure on diesel sales . Thats one of the reason I have trouble seeing large scale adoption of diesels, and without large scale adoption diesels can't play a significant part in reducing oil consumption and getting us off foreign oil.

Rob

[bestmapman]

I have a 07 Prius and an 06 Jetta TDI. If your going to do mostly city driving, the Prius is the better choice. If you are going to do mostly highway driving the Jetta is the better choice.

[DeadPhish]

Originally Posted by reewrd

I have some questions for the Prius owners out here. I drive about 12k - 15k miles a year, mostly city stop and go. I have a deposit on a Prius as well as a new Jetta TDI. I don't know which car I'm going to buy yet, but I am leaning toward the Prius.

In the next week or so, my Prius is supposed to arrive (on a waiting list), but the more I read about VW's TDI motor the more I am unsure of which is best. The Jetta costs about 2k more, but the Jetta is a wagon, which is nice becuase I have two small kids and it has lots of space. The VW TDI gets 38MPG around town and 55MPG on the freeway. That said, I don't like the idea of always having to look for a station that sells diesel. The TDI motor will last forever, and there no batteries to worry about. Mechanically I ultimately see the TDI as trouble free and the better mechancial combo - is this wrong?

I am curious to know what kind of mileage do you see, worst case, with a Prius driving short trips around town ? I have done most of my "ROI" calculations assuming the Prius will get 45mpg around town. Does that sound right? Using these numbers the Prius will pay for itself more quickly than the VW because of the slight MPG avantage, less expensive fuel, and a slightly lower MSRP. These $$ factors have me leaning toward the Prius.

As owners, are there any other things you might point out that will sway me toward the Prius?

Thanks.

As noted previously the VW's as a group have horrible reliability ratings for everything except the diesel engines. By the end of 5 yrs 7 at the most many Jetta owners hate their vehicles with a passion. I see it in the ones trading out of them. Now to be fair those that have little or no trouble are probably still in them and driving happily. My point is that from real life experiences the reports on CR and JD Power seem to be valid; i.e. horrible reliability and very expensive repairs over and over and over again.

But just to do the maths..Excluding repairs.

A. Purchase Price - Resale = Vehicle costs
B. ( Miles driven lifetime / FE ) * Avg cost of fuel lifetime = Fuel costs

Total cost to purchase and operate = A + B

Initial Vehicle Cost
Prius Pck#2 today is $24300
Jetta TDI today is....$26300 ( you noted $2000 more )

TradeIn Values ( as per Edmunds )...
5 yrs
2003 Prius........ $8500
2003 Jetta TDI.. $8600

12 yrs ( forever )
Prius $1000
Jetta $1000

Cost of fuel, 5 yr view and 12 yr view
Gas $3.75 avg this yr with $.50 increases annually through 2020
Diesel $4.50 avg this yr with $.50 increases annually thorugh 2020
5 yr Average Cost of Gas = $4.75 ... 12 yr Avg cost of Gas = $8.00
5 yr Average Cost of Diesel = $5.50 ... 12 yr Avg cost of D2 = $9.00


Fuel Economy, EPA values
Prius ....... 48 / 45 / 46
Jetta TDI.. 29 / 40 / 33

MIles driven
14000 x 5 yrs = 70000
14000 x 12 yrs = 168000

The maths...
The Vehicles:
5 yrs
Prius $24300 - $8500 = $15800
Jetta $26300 - $8600 = $17700
12 yrs
Prius $24300 - $1000 = $23300
Jetta $26300 - $1000 = $25300

Cost of Fuel:
5 yrs
( 70000 / 46 ) * $4.75 = $7200
( 70000 / 33 ) * $5.50 = $11700
12 yrs
( 168000 / 46 ) * $8.00 = $29200
( 168000 / 33 ) * $9.00 = $45800

Summary:
5 years
Prius = $15800 + $7200 = $23000 to buy and drive
Jetta = $17700 + $11700 = $29400 to buy and drive

12 years
Prius = $23300 + $29200 = $52500 to buy and drive
Jetta = $25300 + $45800 = $71100 to buy and drive

[jclay1965]

Coupled with the fact you have to drive around town finding a station that sells diesel fuel, then get your hands filthy dirty filling your car up, paying so much more at the pump for diesel fuel than regular unleaded, and the outrageously poor reliability record of VW, I would not give the Jetta TDI a second thought. Especially if it costs more money. We are on Prius #2 and have never, ever had either one in the shop for anything other than regularly scheduled maintenance. And I don't buy for a minute that the Jetta TDI, even with the advanced technology of the new engine, burns cleaner than the Prius.

[Stefx]

I have a few friends that own Jettas (some diesel, some gasoline powered)

The TDI owners love the engine and hate everything else about the car. They hate having to go to the dealer many times a year to fix problems. If you want to make one of them angry, ask them if they carry spare lightbulbs for their headlights.

They all agree that the TDI engine is fantastic however.

I'd love to see a diesel hybrid... a nice 1.5 TDI within the Toyota hybrid system.

Would be nice to augment our domestic waste recycling by adding a bin for organic waste, and using that waste to produce biodiesel.

[reewrd]

just pulled my tdi deposit

i'll pick up the prius next week - thanks everyone !

[miscrms]

BTW, just posted an analysis of the 2009 TDIs emissions test results here:
http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hy...tml#post656028

Still think reewrd made the right choice

Rob