Road Warning: $7 Gas May Be Ahead

[FL_Prius_Driver]

Originally Posted by chogan2

.....Not to try to hijack the thread, but most people who blame speculators have no idea how the commodities futures markets work. .....

Thank you for fighting the uphill battle.

[greylar]

I think $5 by the end of the year or sooner is a good guess. I am no expert but after looking at how the profits on gas have been distributed and how that has changed since the run up in oil, it looks like the refineries have been squeezed a little in the last few months. Going from $50 a barrel to $130 should have spiked gas more than it did. I looked at this a few weeks ago and don't have links to the information I used. I'll see if I can reconstruct the information and start a new thread.

G

[greylar]

Originally Posted by FL_Prius_Driver

Thank you for fighting the uphill battle.

Yes I agree. There is alot of scapegoating going on and if you read the news it seems that conventional wisdom says the speculators are cause of our problems.

But, I just don't see how they could raise the price of oil for more than a few days... a few weeks at most. Don't forget if you buy an oil future there is a concrete end date by which you have to sell (usually only a few weeks away) or you will be stuck with a load of oil. So for every speculator (one who doesn't actually want the oil) there is both a buy and a SELL and both of those transactions must happen in a pretty short period of time.

It is a much different beast than say stocks where a massive (unwarranted) run up in the price may not correct for awhile because (unlike futures) investors are not obligated to sell and may hold the stock for an extended period of time.

G

[spitinuri]

$7/gal. gas might seem like a bargain in a year or two. Regardless of whether we drill more, and build more refineries in the US prices will continue this upward trend. You have an increased demand and a finite resource. Even if the US were to increase domestic output prices would continue to rise. Just because it is drilled here doesn't mean they are going to sell it cheaper than they can somehwere else. Outside of nationalizing the oil industry (which will never happen) or price control (unlikely) we will now have to make better choices. There are always answers, you just might not want to hear them. For now we will have higher fuel prices (which leads to higher prices for everything).

[cwerdna]

Originally Posted by pewd

they will eventually.
i don't know at what price point - $5 gas, 6, 7, or wherever - but we're getting closer to the point where SUV's and pickups used for single person commuting will disappear.

but we're not there quite yet.

SUVs and pickups used for single person commuting hasn't changed that much IMHO. There are still an INSANE % of monstrosity class (curb weight >5000 lb.) SUVs like H2s, Tahoes, Escalades, Yukons, etc. running around over here, mostly driven solo. I even see morons driving current gen and brand new ones (w/o plates yet).

[DaveinOlyWA]

predicted $5 gas by labor day... thinking about moving that up to Aug 1st. average in Wa is $4.30 (although i am getting it for $4.10 at costco)

[Godiva]

Originally Posted by hill

Similarly, here @ work, we have co-workers that will not budge from their SUV driving pride, and love the thousands they 'saved' on their Denalis.

Maybe when the roads start to thin out and they find themselves essentially surrounded by hybrids, they'll start to notice they aren't saving anything.

[malorn]

Originally Posted by hill

Not 'may be' ahead ... it's just a matter of whether it's next year, or as far away as 3 years. Remember malorn? before he dissapeared? Claiming by this summer that gas would be back down to $2.50 ?? Even he woke up and smeled the coffee.

I was wrong about $2.50 by april and admit it, but well me when gas will be $7.00 /gallon?

[richard schumacher]

[...] but tell me when gas will be $7.00/gallon?

In the US, including inflation and taxes, no later than April 2014.

[darelldd]

Originally Posted by malorn

I was wrong about $2.50 by april and admit it, but well me when gas will be $7.00 /gallon?

Wow. Where you been? This is the first I've heard of your "admission" certainly. Though there isn't much to admit to since the facts are blatant. I think the bigger issue was in your implication that those of us who thought the price of gas would go up were uneducated in the big scary ways of the world. Of that I have seen no appology.

When will gas be $7/gallon: Eventually (I mean unless you already live in one of the markets where it has been higher than that for many years already!). When will we have a (stable) price under $2.50/gallon? Likely never again, though not out of the realm of possibility for the *short* term.