I Have Seen The Next Generation Prius

enerjazz · 03-30-2005, 02:39 PM

OK, so I haven't actually seen it, but I did get to spend the last couple of days with Amory Lovins of RMI as he talked about his book "Winning the Oil Endgame." Based on Toyota history of innovation and long term thinking I'll just say two words of prediction "carbon fiber."

For those who don't want to read the book just go straight to the slideshow and check out the section on cars. I predict that Toyota will again be a leader and be one of the first to mass produce the carbon fiber body. This will significantly boost the Prius mileage (and, as a side benefit, safety - see slide 9 to see how steel can't match carbon). The current Prius actually looks like Amory's hypercar (slide 14) which was first shown in the mid 90's.

Amory points out that cars exist to move people. Yet a person is only a tiny fraction of the weight of the system. The car spends most of the energy moving itself and taking you along for the ride. Make them lighter (but still strong and safe) and we spend much less energy still doing the same job - moving you safely. I call #1 on the list for the carbon fiber Prius.

Presentation - http://www.oilendgame.org/pdfs/WtOEg_Presentation.pdf

Download the book for free - http://www.oilendgame.org

DaveinOlyWA · 03-30-2005, 03:16 PM

thanks for the link. some very interesting stats here. some pretty radical ideas here too. but can we manufacture that much fiber?

Tadashi · 03-30-2005, 05:17 PM

I am not so sure about cabon fiber replacing steel. It would depend on the appliation. Composites are stronger but not as flexible. Under stress a composite will hit a point and have a catastrophic failure, where as metal will fatigue slowly and in some cases get stronger as it is bent. Hence for the reason composite have not been allowed in certain aircraft parts. You would be able to detect the defect and replace it before a failure. It has been 15 years since I took my composites class so they may have come up with suitable work arounds for safety. I will have to read his book and see how much composites have advanced I guess.

TotusPorcus · 03-30-2005, 06:34 PM

Ah.. out of curiousity, what is carbon fiber made out of? Does the process start with a petroleum based raw material??

Tadashi · 03-30-2005, 07:10 PM

I am not sure now, but in a nut shell it was a carbonfiber cloth or kevlar or whatever type of composite you want to make. Then you would use multiple layers of cloth with various types of resins and epoxies that would harden/cure to make a really hard composite. I think the resins and epoxies are petrolum based. I am not sure about the composite clothes that are used.

**Tideland Prius** · 03-30-2005, 07:47 PM

Well the SLR has a full carbon fibre body and the first car with a carbon fibre crash structure. Carbon fibre is made of (woven?) cloth that's baked at high heat (and somewhat high pressure) then moulded (sometimes parts are in multiple layers) and glued together

Jerry P · 03-30-2005, 08:21 PM

Really makes you think. I don't know how the energy use for manufacturing steel vs. carbon fiber goes, but I would think that carbon fiber is a bit less since steel is VERY energy intensive.
Just the use of aluminum in vehicles is making a big difference. The hood on my Prius probably weighs 1/3 of the hood on my wife's Corolla. If the whole body was made to weigh 1/3 of what it currently weighs, the savings would be fantastic. Aluminum, though good, is not the answer, since aluminum production consumes very high amounts of energy. Recycled aluminum, however, does not.

The one problem I see with ultra-light vehicles is wind stability. This is already a problem for some people with the Prius, and some way would have to be found to minimize this.

DaveinOlyWA · 03-30-2005, 08:33 PM

if it were made of petroleum products that would seem to be a half solution at best. i saw a special on this type of technology before but i was under the impression that it just couldnt be manufactured in huge bulk like steel could. (a huge steel roll can make several cars and be hauled on a single truck. carbon fiber cant be and also as someone may have mentioned here, it has a problem of not bending like steel does in an accident.

with no crumple zone, accidents would create severe injuries for occupants. as i understand it, a lot of strides have been made with flexible restraint systems (the seatbelt does the stretching instead of the car crumpling, both in effect moderating the deceleration of the vehicle in event of an accident. this is the largest cause of injury.) however, this system last i heard was only effective in front or rear collisions only.

i did see a special on Modern Marvels with some sort of fibre that had all the characteristics of carbon, and was as flexible as steel. they showed a demostration where a fender was crunched. then a guy came along with a suction thing and pulled it back out. not a scratch or mark on it. unfortunately, that vehicle would cost about 300,000 i believe.

also you if want an example of a car with carbon fibre, look at the MacLaren F-1. it has a carbon body, 12 cylinder motor and will go 0-100 in 4.3 seconds.

the car is so light that it has flow through air dams that when the brakes are pressed, the dams direct force up to effectively make the car heavier so it can stop since the rear spoiler isnt enough to do it.

DaveinOlyWA · 03-30-2005, 08:40 PM

another thing the guy mentioned that i think is a great idea is the low income leasing program.

it doesnt go into much details but what i think it does is lets low income people trade in their old ineffcient ( and probably untuned) junkers in for high efficiency vehicles. now if the Prius was selected for that program, it would drive the price waay down. it would also take a huge chunk out of the gasoline appetite. we have all been stuck behind the old ford van that belched out as much smoke as your backyard bar b Q.

pepa · 03-30-2005, 09:30 PM

I think there already was a vehicle with body made of carbon fibre once: It was East German vehicle called Trabant.

It was three cylinder, two-cycle stinky bastard. Quite popular back then because it was so darn cheap.

The fact that it never rusts is today considered a curse in countries of former Soviet bloc, because these smelly monsters are still running there.

03-30-2005, 05:17 PM	#3
Tadashi Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Fort Hood, TX Posts: 794 My Car: Package: Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	I am not so sure about cabon fiber replacing steel. It would depend on the appliation. Composites are stronger but not as flexible. Under stress a composite will hit a point and have a catastrophic failure, where as metal will fatigue slowly and in some cases get stronger as it is bent. Hence for the reason composite have not been allowed in certain aircraft parts. You would be able to detect the defect and replace it before a failure. It has been 15 years since I took my composites class so they may have come up with suitable work arounds for safety. I will have to read his book and see how much composites have advanced I guess. __________________ Two Prii Family - '05 Salsa Red BC#6 (Mine) and '05 Driftwood BC#6 (Wife's) Best Tank: 89.398 MPG (372 mi) - all city Worst Tank: 29.5 MPG (131 mi) - one flat tire Current Year: 56.826 MPG Best Yr: 58.242 MPG (2006), Worst Yr: 51.237 MPG (2005) Lifetime Avg: 54.911 MPG (31799 mi) Savings based on mid-size Avg since 2/05: $3,447.50 ($7,101.94 for both Prius) Dual Prius MPG, Expense, ROI, and Emissions tracker (updated 8/19/9/07) Single Prius MPG, Expense, ROI, and Emissions tracker (updated 9/15/2007) Solar Panel Stats: Overview Power Yield

03-30-2005, 06:34 PM	#4
TotusPorcus Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 4 My Car: Package: Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	Re: I Have Seen The Next Generation Prius Ah.. out of curiousity, what is carbon fiber made out of? Does the process start with a petroleum based raw material??

03-30-2005, 08:21 PM	#7
Jerry P Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Waterford, PA Posts: 291 My Car: 2004 Prius Package: #7 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	Re: I Have Seen The Next Generation Prius Really makes you think. I don't know how the energy use for manufacturing steel vs. carbon fiber goes, but I would think that carbon fiber is a bit less since steel is VERY energy intensive. Just the use of aluminum in vehicles is making a big difference. The hood on my Prius probably weighs 1/3 of the hood on my wife's Corolla. If the whole body was made to weigh 1/3 of what it currently weighs, the savings would be fantastic. Aluminum, though good, is not the answer, since aluminum production consumes very high amounts of energy. Recycled aluminum, however, does not. The one problem I see with ultra-light vehicles is wind stability. This is already a problem for some people with the Prius, and some way would have to be found to minimize this. __________________ Warrior in the Battle for American Energy Independence

03-30-2005, 08:33 PM	#8
DaveinOlyWA Opps !! I Did it Again!! Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: South Puget Sound, WA Posts: 9,228 My Car: 2006 Prius Package: #4 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 4	if it were made of petroleum products that would seem to be a half solution at best. i saw a special on this type of technology before but i was under the impression that it just couldnt be manufactured in huge bulk like steel could. (a huge steel roll can make several cars and be hauled on a single truck. carbon fiber cant be and also as someone may have mentioned here, it has a problem of not bending like steel does in an accident. with no crumple zone, accidents would create severe injuries for occupants. as i understand it, a lot of strides have been made with flexible restraint systems (the seatbelt does the stretching instead of the car crumpling, both in effect moderating the deceleration of the vehicle in event of an accident. this is the largest cause of injury.) however, this system last i heard was only effective in front or rear collisions only. i did see a special on Modern Marvels with some sort of fibre that had all the characteristics of carbon, and was as flexible as steel. they showed a demostration where a fender was crunched. then a guy came along with a suction thing and pulled it back out. not a scratch or mark on it. unfortunately, that vehicle would cost about 300,000 i believe. also you if want an example of a car with carbon fibre, look at the MacLaren F-1. it has a carbon body, 12 cylinder motor and will go 0-100 in 4.3 seconds. the car is so light that it has flow through air dams that when the brakes are pressed, the dams direct force up to effectively make the car heavier so it can stop since the rear spoiler isnt enough to do it. __________________ My 2006: Last tank 457.6 miles @54.2 pump (54.3 computer) 7.12 cpm winter mpg 50.78 summer mpg 55.25 lifetime: 30,151.4 miles 53.13 mpg pump (54.37 mpg computer) 5.70 cpm My 2007 Zenn Driven 4358 miles, 2.08 cpm/ 201 mpg (at $4.24/gal), 3.74 miles/ Kwh Savings over my Prius $238.80 The Corolla...435.21 The REAL SAVINGS from not driving Corolla 544.07 +Prius=782.87 (excludes maintenance costs...would be unfair to ICE vehicles) My Plate: DUALPWR (Dual Power)

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03-30-2005, 02:39 PM	#1
enerjazz Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Fairview, TX Posts: 161 My Car: 2004 Prius Package: #3 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	I Have Seen The Next Generation Prius OK, so I haven't actually seen it, but I did get to spend the last couple of days with Amory Lovins of RMI as he talked about his book "Winning the Oil Endgame." Based on Toyota history of innovation and long term thinking I'll just say two words of prediction "carbon fiber." For those who don't want to read the book just go straight to the slideshow and check out the section on cars. I predict that Toyota will again be a leader and be one of the first to mass produce the carbon fiber body. This will significantly boost the Prius mileage (and, as a side benefit, safety - see slide 9 to see how steel can't match carbon). The current Prius actually looks like Amory's hypercar (slide 14) which was first shown in the mid 90's. Amory points out that cars exist to move people. Yet a person is only a tiny fraction of the weight of the system. The car spends most of the energy moving itself and taking you along for the ride. Make them lighter (but still strong and safe) and we spend much less energy still doing the same job - moving you safely. I call #1 on the list for the carbon fiber Prius. Presentation - http://www.oilendgame.org/pdfs/WtOEg_Presentation.pdf Download the book for free - http://www.oilendgame.org __________________ Paul www.enerjazz.com/prius 2004 Seaside Pearl

03-30-2005, 03:16 PM	#2
DaveinOlyWA Opps !! I Did it Again!! Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: South Puget Sound, WA Posts: 9,228 My Car: 2006 Prius Package: #4 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 4	thanks for the link. some very interesting stats here. some pretty radical ideas here too. but can we manufacture that much fiber?

03-30-2005, 07:10 PM	#5
Tadashi Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Fort Hood, TX Posts: 794 My Car: Package: Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	I am not sure now, but in a nut shell it was a carbonfiber cloth or kevlar or whatever type of composite you want to make. Then you would use multiple layers of cloth with various types of resins and epoxies that would harden/cure to make a really hard composite. I think the resins and epoxies are petrolum based. I am not sure about the composite clothes that are used.

03-30-2005, 07:47 PM	#6
Tideland Prius Super Moderator Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 13,370 My Car: 2005 Prius Package: B Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 10	Well the SLR has a full carbon fibre body and the first car with a carbon fibre crash structure. Carbon fibre is made of (woven?) cloth that's baked at high heat (and somewhat high pressure) then moulded (sometimes parts are in multiple layers) and glued together

03-30-2005, 08:40 PM	#9
DaveinOlyWA Opps !! I Did it Again!! Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: South Puget Sound, WA Posts: 9,228 My Car: 2006 Prius Package: #4 Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 4	another thing the guy mentioned that i think is a great idea is the low income leasing program. it doesnt go into much details but what i think it does is lets low income people trade in their old ineffcient ( and probably untuned) junkers in for high efficiency vehicles. now if the Prius was selected for that program, it would drive the price waay down. it would also take a huge chunk out of the gasoline appetite. we have all been stuck behind the old ford van that belched out as much smoke as your backyard bar b Q.

03-30-2005, 09:30 PM	#10
pepa Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Rockford, Illinois Posts: 103 My Car: Package: Nominated 0 Times in 0 Posts TOTM Awards: 0 Friends: 0	I think there already was a vehicle with body made of carbon fibre once: It was East German vehicle called Trabant. It was three cylinder, two-cycle stinky bastard. Quite popular back then because it was so darn cheap. The fact that it never rusts is today considered a curse in countries of former Soviet bloc, because these smelly monsters are still running there.