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The upcoming earthquake in Chile...

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by amm0bob, Mar 25, 2014.

  1. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Not sure - I'm strong on Chinese stats, but in Australia, my knowledge is limited to individual farms.

    But it's worth noting that from about 2000 to 2006, there was a really bad drought in the wheat-growing belt of North-West New South Wales and South-West Queensland. A lot of farmers gave up on their crops, and that would have hit fertiliser use.
     
  2. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    April 2, 8.2 Chile
    April 10 ,6.1 Nicaragua
    April 13,7.6 Solomon Islands
    April 18,7.2 Mexico

    April 24th? Blg21G-IgAAKsLB.jpg large.jpg
     
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  3. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Earthquakes and (volcanoes) have such large human impacts that people are devoting massive efforts and computers to understand them better. Here's one example

    TUM - TU München: Computational record on SuperMUC

    One might infer from such effort that it is not at all easy to figure these things out. This does not exclude the possibility that some people believe that it is easy.
     
  4. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    April 19,7.8 Papua New Guinea

     
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  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    That prediction table seems to have nearly full coverage, with items for 20 out of April's 30 days.

    On an earthquake site, I'm seeing a lot more more quakes listed. Here is a list, sorted for just the events of 5.5 and higher (the cutoff on the above prediction table), and dated by UTC, not local time:

    April 1, 8.2, Chile (plus weeks of huge aftershocks)
    April 2, 6.0, Panama
    April 2, 5.6, Japan
    April 3, 5.6, Sumatra
    April 4, 6.0, Solomon Islands
    April 4, 5.5, Greece
    April 10, 6.1, Nicaragua
    April 10, 5.6, Tonga
    April 11, 7.1, Solomon Islands
    April 12, 7.6, Solomon Islands (plus days of huge aftershocks)
    April 15, 6.9, Bouvet Islands
    April 17, 6.2, Balleny Islands
    April 17, 5.5, Celebes Sea
    April 18, 7.2, Mexico
    April 18, 6.0, Santa Cruz Islands
    April 18, 5.5, Alaska
    April 19, 7.5, Solomon Islands (plus a couple large aftershocks)

    Have you scored the 'predictions' against the null hypothesis?
     
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  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Ive watched these monthly predictions for a year or two.
    I dont believe Ive ever seen a month with so many high "R4-R5" periods predictions.
    Nor have I seen the resulting corresponding coronal holes, coronal mass ejections and flares.
    Nor have I seen a month of so many greater than magnitude 6 quakes.
    I have witnessed many R5 periods which have spawned tropical storms as well.
    Also volcanic eruptions are triggered during these high periods as well.
    But my observations are casual.


     
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  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Catalogs of coronal mass ejections are available online, for example here:

    The SOHO/LASCO Instrument Homepage

    Which should make it feasible to look for correlations with earthquakes or other terrestrial events. Or simply to up one's game from the level of 'I never saw this many'.

    Does this web article answer the question well enough?

    Do solar flares cause earthquakes? :: The Sun Today

    cause the scientific study I linked to earlier in the thread did not seem to settle the matter.
     
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  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Humans have an incredibly powerful ability to 'see' patterns in white Gaussian noise. That is why I put little stock in casual observations of this sort. Show me some computed correlations over long time periods.
     
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  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  10. hkmb

    hkmb Senior Member

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    Indeed.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I need an 'unsee' option in my brain.
     
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  12. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    April 24 Vancouver 6.6