August 2014 - Dashboard Report

my point was that, just like pip with no rollout, accord with limited production and greedy dealers has the same effect, even though it's 50 states. unless a mfg. is willing to commit to abundant supply, sales are going to stagnate.

 

Honda is likely being catious considering the history with battery problems and the success of the first Accord hybrid. There could also be a Mitsubishi scenario in which they are choosing to meet demand elsewhere first from underestimating demand.

 

...I am thinking (in lack of state sales data for PiP) PiP is 60-65% sold in CA in part due to incentives and green sticker HOV access. I am thinking the Californians purchased most of their PiP's first half of 2014 prior to the green sticker sell-out scares.

 

perhaps toyota is being cautious with the pip.

 

There was also a similar recent study by NADA (below) I did not post it because I thought it was weak. At one point the NADA article goes on to say this momentary tick down in hybrid sales obviously heralds the beginning of a 10-yr long term down trend in hybrid sales ...I mean ...why say something like that? Who knows what the future holds?

http://www.nada.com/B2B/Portals/0/assets/NADA%20Perspective/2014/201406%20Hybrid%20Car%20Market%20Review.pdf

There were some interesting NADA points that Corolla is now depreciating more slowly than the Prius, a recent switch.

But there are some big demographic shifts right now. One report I heard said 2014 car sales approaching 17+ million is possibly similar to the end of the Vietnam war when the downsized military folks headed out to the civilian life and bought cars. If so, apparently those folks are not buying hybrids quite as much.

God knows I have been trying to say Virginia car tax policies over-tax hybrids and hurt hybrid sales. So I do see it as a uphill battle for hybrids without incentives.

 

I might believe the 10-yr long term down trend in hybrid sales if a 10 year long down trend in gas prices is occurring. Nice the have a crystal ball with that much accuracy.

 

Hybrids are down a little but really if we look at the trend of electrified (hybrid + phev + bev) we aren't even down for a whole year yet. Figures from hybrid cars (jeff cobb). I'll leave it to bob to make it pretty

year, sales (in 1000s), take rate, change from year before

2007 350K 2.2% 40.1%
2008 314K 2.4% -10.3%
2009 290K 2.8% -7.6%
2010 275K 2.4% -5.2%
2011 287K 2.3% 4.2%
2012 488K 3.4% 70.2%
2013 592K 3.8% 21.4%

This year we are about 12K behind last year. I don't see a pattern where growth has stopped, but big growth in 2012 and 2013 may fall back a little for the next couple of years. I would expect that we will have big growth in 2016 with new cars.

 

Definitely some cherry picking here from the edmunds article, that is repeated for all of this negative hybrid doom and gloom. Not that September to august is any worse than January to December.New model years often appear this time of year. The last may-august versus 2013 did not look good, since september-december 2013 were weak, I expect the end of this year to have some recovery.

Let's first understand the prius c is a prius in name only. It has a different drivetraine and platform. It could just as easily been called a yaris hybrid, or kept the japanese name of aqua. The prius c is performing fine this year.

I don't fully understand the prius liftback/v downturn. The prius v is really a prius waggon, but maybe people are buying small suvs or midsize hybrids instead.

The other car that is important to the downturn is the c-max. The c-max came out better than expected in terms of sales, and maybe after 2 mpg revisions down it is selling in proper numbers.

The camry/avalon/lexus ESh are doing fine. Numbers are down a little in this year versus last, but their is new competition from the accord hybrid and mkz. IMHO all of these may go up in sales if dealers decide they want to spend the time to educate customers on how much lower tco is versus the plain ice version.

The current 3.5L hybrid system sales are falling for good reason. The system is expensive compared to increased mpg in both the highlander and the lexus Rxh. A modified camry system and a 2L turbo are going to be available in the new Lexus NX (a cross between a lower rav 4, and a rxh). We should watch to see if this makes the RXh and highlander hybrid fall. It would be great if toyota or someone else built a eAWD crossover hybrid from the ground up to average around 33 mpg combined. Make a phev version with 25 mile electric range and it could be the eco soccar mom car.

Toyota already has a more efficient di 2.5L Ice for the hybrid system for the Lexus ISh, not sold in the US. Combine that with a new high tow rating eAWD system and drop it in a tacoma, and I think we would have a hybrid truck winner.

 

I didn't see any links, but its the edmunds data that is getting repeated in autoline, wsj, la times, etc.

 

Georgia Leads US In EV Adoption For 2014
Its only for the first half of the year, but its interesting that Georgia has charge ahead to be the biggest percentage bev state.


California because it buys so many cars has bought about 42% of bevs this year. I don't know how many cars georgia buys, but population is 3.14% which would take around 16% of bevs and washington state 7%, putting 65% in just these three states. We haven't seen phev states breakdown yet.