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Arctic Ice Passage, 2014

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Jun 2, 2014.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    June 2014 has arrived and the summer melt is on:
    Thanks to time-lapse images, you can watch the melt areas develop, expand, join, and open up the sea routes. Those polar vortex events that let coastal Alaska reach freezing this winter chilled the lower 48 and kept the Arctic ice thin. So the Bering Sea ice has already started the summer break-up:
    source:
    Bering Sea Early Sea Ice Break-Up 2014


    Shipping begins soon enough:
    So I'm looking forward to the 2014 season. Hopefully the polar incursions will continue to moderate the lower 48 summer.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    Paging Mojo....

    Icarus
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It looks like there are ice breaker routes opened or opening on the Northeast passage. There are broad swaths of 70% or less ice cover on the Russian side.

    The Northwest passage also has paths showing 70% or less ice and the Hudson Bay is thinning rapidly.

    During the summer melt, the ice pressure decreases significantly. This make ice breaker, channel clearing much easier:
    Source: NSR - Ice Concentration | Northern Sea Route Information Office

    It looks to be a good year for Arctic passage on both sides.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Arctic ice coverage is headed towards a record low:
    [​IMG]
    What is especially curious is the wedge of ice that spans the longitude lines bounding the Bering Sea. This chunk extends to the 70 degree latitude, the furtherest block south of the Arctic ice cap.

    In the meanwhile, the Antarctic does not appear to be at risk of ice-bridge, closing the gap with South America.

    Bob Wilson
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Looks like the NorthEast passage is opened with ice breaker assistance on two legs. The melting continues but I suspect it is open for business. I don't know the water depths but it clearly looks like clear water along all but one small section of the Russian Arctic shore.

    Here is the press release:
    The NorthWest passage is rapidly approaching the same state although not as clear as the NorthEast. Sad to say, the North Americans do not have nuclear powered, ice breakers . . . something they probably could use.

    Having a passage does nothing for the electro-political issues of sanctions that may reduce the need for shipping.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #5 bwilson4web, Jul 18, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Interesting change that explains other observations:
    Source: Sixteen-foot swells reported in once frozen region of Arctic Ocean - The Washington Post

    In 2013 there were reports of significant beach erosion attributed to melting of permafrost. But with the increase in storm generated waves, it makes a lot of sense that shore erosion would accelerate. The other thought is antarctica has always been circular navigable year round. Southern waves have already been trimming the weak ice sheets. Now the Arctic is starting to see the same mechanism which should decrease the albedo.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Another set of ships are research vessels and this came up:
    Source: NunatsiaqOnline 2014-08-05: NEWS: Researchers spot methane bubbling up from Arctic Ocean floor

    Time to check on " Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite or GOSAT" data.

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Might be time to buy a batch of cheep shore line . . . . build some docks, etc.
    ;)

    [​IMG]
    .
     
  9. Onager

    Onager Junior Member

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    Doesn't this graph show the Artic Sea Ice Extent well ahead of the the 2007 data and on par or slightly better than the 2013 data which was slightly ahead of the significant increase in 2012? Although the long term data still shows a slight decline recent data from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center shows a significant increase in the last two years. With neutral or slightly declining global temperatures for, IIRC, 15 years what makes you think this is a long term trend which will result in Artic ice disappearing or significantly reduced?
     
  10. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Note that the image linked here is live, updated daily, so the graph you see today is different than when Bob made his post back in June. When he made that post, this year's curve was still hugging the record low line of 2007. But since then, this year's summer melt curve slowed, instead matching last year's curve.
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Take a peek at the open sea area. The NorthEast passage is all but ice free and the NorthWest passage has gotten pretty thin. But I suspect the fallout from the Ukraine sanctions might be showing up as fewer transits. We really won't know the final tonnage until about 2-3 months after the NorthEast passage freezes up.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #11 bwilson4web, Sep 1, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2014
  12. Onager

    Onager Junior Member

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    Yep, my bad, thanks!
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    [​IMG]

    Nice passage on the Russian side. NorthWest passage would need ice breakers.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Some more news:

    Greenland ice melting at record speed | Environment | DW.DE | 21.08.2014

    [​IMG]

    One should take such a short study period with a 'grain of salt.' Still, interesting data point.

    Bob Wilson
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    We're within a week or so of minimum Arctic ice:
    [​IMG]
    The specific date of minimum Arctic ice won't be known for about a week. Regardless, the NorthEast passage remains fairly clear with only small areas of broken ice. Since winds can change the ice conditions quickly, an ice breaker is advised in those areas.

    Meanwhile, the Ukrainian conflict has led to Exxon pulling out of an oil drilling plan. Russia will probably just drill on their own.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Roald Amundsen got a ship through the northwest passage in 1906, and the feat has been repeated many times since, but in the last decade or so, each of those voyages has been touted as proof that it's becoming a navigable waterway due to global warming. The truth is that with good planning and a bit of luck, you can sometimes make it through.

    Actually, not much has changed since the Franklin Expedition of 1845.
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I've been following the Arctic ice cover for the past two years and noticed the climate change has led to the NorthEast passage being commercially exploitable. The NorthWest passage won't really become practical until the Canadians get a nuclear powered, ice breaker. There are just a couple of channels where the ice blocked passage.

    The part that I find most interesting is the area long the Northern, Greenland coast. Today, it anchors the 'old ice' that carries forward each year. Once that channel opens up, Arctic navigation will become much more practical.

    As for planning, aviation and boating, planning is the way to avoid becoming a statistic . . . along with emergency practice to stay sharp. Sh*t happens and the best laid plans of mice and men oft' go arry'.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I think everything is just a citation-war until the sea-level actually starts flooding coastlines.
     
  19. icarus

    icarus Senior Member

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    Whether or not the NW passage is "navigable" as an example of climate change is largely a reed hearing. The fact is, as folks from Henry Hudson to Amundsen proved, the " passage" is a very complex labarynth of channels and islands. Open water one year, not in others means little.

    The real issue is the percentage of sea ice coverage, how early it forms in the fall, how fast it breaks up in the spring. It is beyond argument that the percentage of sea ice has been shrinking, on average, with later freeze ups, earlier break ups in general.

    The comparative absence of sea ice has profound effects, most significantly the change in albedo, allowing more heat to be absorbed by the darker water, leading to ever more ice melt.

    It is amazing how simple facts, causes and effects are lost on the denial community who have never ventured far from their out doors for the most part, either physically or intellectually.

    Icarus
     
  20. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Science is about weighing evidence and determining a level of confidence for a theory. It's not about "proving a case" by cherry-picking data which seems to support a theory.

    A scientist never speaks of "proven facts" or "truths," or absolute certainties; they are the purview of religion. Any scientist worth their salt welcomes anyone to challenge their theories; because after all, a true fact can never be disproved, and a falsehood can never be proved. The process works either way; it tends to either support or discredit a theory. Either way, human knowledge increases.

    Terms like "denier" have no place in science, that's a political term, designed to shift attention away from the data and onto the person, who ostensibly has some sort of mental defect for being skeptical. Science can't accomplish much when we engage in competitive politics (a.k.a. tribalism). The data gets buried under tons of rhetoric (B.S.) and forgotten.