September 2014 Dashboard Report

C and V more so stable. PHV big hit because there are too many better options on the market. I know a couple people buying the Volt over the PHV, granted the volt isn't stellar either.

People like the V, I bet it would fluorish if it was ever a 7-8 seater. As for Liftback...people have too many options and are bored of it frankly. The latest "persona" series isn't enough to carry it. If they slash the price $2-3k then I think sales would pick up. Maybe people know the 4th gen is coming? I doubt the general public does though...

 

PHV had very low inventory in September, since it was final clearance time for the 2014 model. That's a normal expectation when a new model-year is rolled out.

For the entire country, there is only a current inventory of 311 listed. So, there's no expectation of higher sales with stock so limited.

 

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
leaf and tesla S sold well last month.

 

Model S selling really well considering the price reach is like triple the amount of a Leaf, lol Wth?

 

The latest rumors that I've seen call for a 2016 Volt 2.0 available in two battery capacities, a new plugin hybrid Cadillac (in addition to the ELR), and a Voltec-based small crossover utility vehicle. Someone also took pictures a couple of years ago of a new prototype SUV with what appeared to be a non-plug hybrid battery in the back.

The only thing that seems certain is a new 2016 Volt 2.0.

 

not that it makes the rumors any clearer. It appears that gm is full speed ahead on the volt 2.0 (probably out in less than a year) until then I expect high variability and lower sales than in 2013.
Chevrolet Volt Sales Weaken In The US For September - 1,394 Sold

 

+1

Yes, it appears that the prius phv was supply constrained the last 2 months. What I don't understand is why toyota doesn't ship more cars. We know tesla was parts constrained and now panasonic is producing more batteries, so model S sales should be up for the rest of the year. Did Toyota hit some number and will hold shipments low until 2015? Or are they waiting on some supplier or part problem?

September 2014 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

 

The PiP results are consistent with my theory that: (1) most PiPs are probably sold in CA for HOV stickers; and (2) the CA HOV sticker shortage (now expanded to 70000) probably pushed PiP sales into the first 6 months. It also seemed like Toyota was well stocked with PiPs in CA thru June so that the buyers could get them. Actually first quarter 2014, I calc'ed 60% of all PHEV were sold in CA, but it was already down to 50% by end of second quarter.

Now we got more CA green stickers so that helps, but the PiP demand was addressed ealier in the year.

 

i don't think toyota wants to sell pips at large discounts. if they have them on the lot, they need big discounts to sell. keep the supply tight, sell with low/no discount, gauge real demand.

 

I can't believe they can't sell them at a larger profit than the regular liftback in california, but maybe they don't want to do that. There is what $4000 federal and state money and a hov sticker. I don't think it could possibly cost toyota $4000 more ($600(higher than ford pays panasonic)x4.4kwh=$2640, inverter and charger can't cost that much). I would think a dealer should be able to sell it for $4500 more than a liftback.
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but you have no idea of market size. maybe there just aren't that many people who can really profit from 10-15 miles of ev, and it just makes more sense to by the lift back.

 

...the next question would be, does the reduction in regular Prius hybrid sales also reflect a supply shortage?

 

...one person here on PC said the taxi fleets may be buying less Prii, pretty much they were fully stocked up now.

 

I'm theorizing that prius sales are down overall for several reasons:

1. Gen 4 is coming out. Now that we have a sort-of set date of late 2015 or early 2016 for the next gen prius, some people may be holding out on buying a liftback until then, especially if it's cheaper and/or much better driving experience/mpg.

2. Market saturation. Prius is the most popular hybrid, and many people who want one already own one. I doubt too many folks buy a new car every 2 years. On top of that, there's a lot more competition out there now. Don't like the prius? You can buy a c-max, volt, leaf, model s, etc. Sure, they may have drawbacks too, but some people are happy with lesser mpg if it means better handling/driving and less gas used ala ev or bigger battery hybrid.

3. Despite #2, it's still a largely niche market because you still have to convince those people who are otherwise happy with a 25-35 mpg car that only costs $22k or less that owning a hybrid/ev is worth the extra cost. They might just reason that the $5-15k they saved not buying a hybrid can buy a lot of gas, and they'd be right. And not everyone cares about saving the environment (though I'm sure everyone loves saving the "green" in their wallet), so marketing that aspect may not win many people over who aren't already intent on buying a hybrid/ev. Thankfully this isn't just a Toyota-specific problem, and hopefully the carmakers as a whole tackle this problem to make hybrids/ev's more acceptable and affordable down the road.

4. Regarding the PiP, it's largely a combination of extremely limited supply, which bob mentioned, and limited availability. In the vast majority of the country, people who want a plugin are going to have to settle for a volt, c-max energi, or leaf. The PiP's "11 mile ev range" hurts it slightly in this aspect, and the higher price tag doesn't help either. Yes, you can get a tax credit for it (and some people get state benefit too), which may make it cheaper than a liftback, but for many it's still too much to justify the extra cost. Or maybe the lack of a spare tire scared some people away. In any case, I think Toyota is playing it safe with the gen 1 PiP. Hopefully the next gen one will be available nationwide, or they're definitely going to lose people, especially if volt 2.0 has really good stats (at least 50 mile EV range, and say 45 mpg with regular gas for another 400-500 miles).

 

"Refreshing" - so they will be like the Camry 2014.5 ? Slight remodeling of interior and exterior but same mechanics? Usage of the words "carry-over", "refresh", and "redesign" matter

 

Great article from Toyota, Bob.
However, something does not add up for me. We are running 16% below 2013 sales and yet we ran out of Prius HEV supply in Sept? Is that due to greater demand overseas, U.S. got stiffed? Or a plant output issue?

Re: PiP I think I was sort of correct: They already sold a lot more PiP in 2014, which I attribute to the California green sticker effect.

 

The statement was that they ran out of of the 2014 model. They likely had incentives on them to move them off the lot for the 2015s. Were there '15s available for sale or the incentives on them not attractive enough is another question.