September 2014 Dashboard Report

My dealership said that Toyota stopped shipping Plugins since summer. One manager thought that it was the end of the PiP line that there would be no more because Toyota did in fact stop producing them. Little do they know though PiPs continue into 2015...

I don't know dealerships are confusing. Great to hear many of them saw the 4th gen though. I wonder if Toyota is confused about their strategy.

 

They sold out the 2014s they had 2015s liftbacks that didn't sell, it just means they had less discounting. There was short stock in the plug-ins not the liftbacks. They are advertising a lot more, or I am seeing it because they are advertising during football games. I don't think the new advertising is effective though.
With Sales Sputtering, Toyota Seeks Broader Appeal For Prius Line - Forbes

 

September 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

Hybrid vehicles declined from a strong result in August and in fact achieved the lowest sales volume since February of this year. As usual, hybrid volumes are largely determined by the fate of the Prius and other Toyota (and Lexus) products, most of which are down. However, compared to year-ago, the Prius C, Prius V, Avalon, and Lexus CT performed well. Ford’s hybrids, the Fusion, C-Max and MKZ also declined from strong results in August and with the exception of the MKZ from year-ago levels.​

 

For example, in about August, Toyota Sunnyvale had big discounts on Prius liftback, factory cash back, etc...
Those discounts are much less now. That's likely a big reason why sales are down.

But, other makes / models are cruising. Honda sold over 32,000 Accords in Sept. More than camry, but 2015 revised Camry will land in a week or so.

Prius offers big MPGs, but a bit small and low power for the price. Many people just don't like the looks of Prius liftback and the interior may be too weird and futuristic. Even the Prius Five mostly feels like c#$p to sit in, to me anyway. but, I'm picky. Camry feels better, but that Cadillac XTS the other day was off the charts comfortable!

 

I know why Camry Hybrid sales were so low in Sept: 2014.5's are almost all sold out. 2015 Camry Hybrid should be in stock fairly soon. Wow, PiP fell off a cliff.

 

No supply on PiP...could be a good PiP year end if the 2015 starts being available

 

September 2014 Sales Conference Call (Audio Clip) | Corporate

Toyota Racks Up 7 Million Hybrids Sold Since 1997

 

There is much seasonality in autos, and you might analyse the entire light vehicle market to get monthly corrections. The hybrid seasonality is a little different as hybrids are so dominated by toyota, a toyota seasonality model might help.

Here are the federal researves seasonality factors
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
It doesn't have a toyota factor, but hybrids might be best modeled using the foreign autos column. Projections go out to 2016.

I would expect the trend to accelerate but the cycle time is multi year.

IMHO an effective model may look at electrified (hv, phev, bev) versus non electrified. There was strong growth in 2012 and 2013 and a small decrease is projected in 2014, but I would expect this growth to return in 2015.

If we only look at the hv part of the market, some parts are going plug-in, and analysts expect plug-in growth to far exceed hybrid growth. 2014 is definietly a down year for hybrids, and the gen 4 prius delayed until end of 2015, and low gas prices almost assure that 2015 will be a under performing year also. That may change drastically in 2016 if the new prius is a hit or if gas prices rise again. Toyota and ford could stimulate the market by dropping hybrid prices next year, and grow the market despite lack of new designs and moderate gas prices. It is hard to tell what the automakers will do.

 

Ambiguous statements like that shouldn't be spread. It literally tells us nothing. The complete absence of detail gives reason for question.

"Growth" could mean anything. No actual quantity estimate or even a percent is a red flag. The same goes for "far" being meaningless.

"Hybrid" doesn't really mean anything anymore either. What is Prius PHV counted as? Fusion Energi? Volt? What about vehicles with start-stop? What about tiny assist motors?

And of course, who the heck are the so-called "analysts" saying that? Are they part of the auto industry? Someone supporting EVs? Someone pushing fossil fuels?

We learned long ago not to take statements at face-value. That one is an excellent reason why.

 

lolz

It is meaningful to most, but probably not to you. I am not writing a thesis with evidence. How is this. This year plug-ins look like that will grow at more than 25%, hybrids unless there is a miricle will contract. There are a dozen analyst that look at the market, and they all have plug-ins growing, those that have hybrid market growing, have the rate bellow plug-ins. Read the analyst reports yourself. I am sure you won't believe any summary I give you.

Growth for plug-ins mean growth of car market share. It is pretty straightforward. Hybrid means hybrid, and clearly not phev. you can add start-stop if you like but I was not, that is called start stop.

stock analyst, wall street and nikkei mainly, plus market research companies. you decide if they are pushing fossil fuel, but that would not be me. I am typing in english it shouldn't be this hard.

You never tell me who the we are. If you have something to add please add it. Do you have some analysis for plug-ins and growth that are different, or are you just here to spread uncertainty and doubt with word games.

 

Growth of 25% YOY for one year in plug-ins fades into the statistical noise.
If 100 cars sold a month becomes 125 cars a month, who cares ?

If Prius world-wide sales contract from 50,000 a month down to 45,000, they still have a profitable business that will hopefully tide them over the current business cycle and oil boomlet, or until the world wakes up and taxes carbon.

 

Gas prices continuing to fall. Whatchya going to do for your Prius , Toyota?

 

That's a really good question. They scaled back their incentives a bit, possibly due to 2015s arriving on the lots, but it's still the same car. With gas prices this low I think Prius sales are really going to hurt.

 

I would not buy another conventional car if I bought a new car. If I did buy a conventional car, I'd just call it an old-fashioned car.

The marketing hype of conventional cars is ridiculous. Ford says on TV the Focus gets 'up to' 40 MPG. We know that's some eco maodel that most don't buy and that Focus' are lucky to get 30 or 32 MPG at the pump.

I'm not saying I'd buy another Prius though.