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John Coleman

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by GregP507, Oct 29, 2014.

  1. Silver bullit

    Silver bullit Right Lane Cruiser

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  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Wjtracy's quote @18 was dealt with (about half? more?) in the link I posted @8. Greg @19 found only one small piece in it to merit his attention.

    This is all fine, Greg has found a cause and wants us all to look. But reasonably, he'd do a bit more. He'd point to some finding of Coleman's that we could all examine. As I have done, and mojo, and Trebuchet, and AustinG, Bob,W and gosh, I don't know how many others.

    Maybe Greg wants to take a vacation instead, and there was no interest in fomenting a critical discussion.

    Coleman gets bashed at affinity websites such as desmogblog and praised at WUWT - no surprise in either case. More interesting, not even mentioned at Judith Curry's which might represent the middle. If this fella just does videos and appeals to the edges, how could I possibly be interested?

    Give us something, or claim (again) to have been insulted and run away.
     
  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well here we do have some facts available, and I feel happy to shine some light against this part of Colman's thesis. It won't ofcourse dispute other parts, and I hope some others can provide the evidence there.

    Living on Earth: Global Warming Lawsuit
    So Reville was not senile. Lancaster settled his libel suit and had to appologize to Singer. He now he claims his wife talked him into it, and now what 20 years after the fact is calling Singer names. I consider that kind of scummy. He was a lawyer and a politician, and clearly politics was involved in asking to remove a dead man's name from a paper that both his coathors say he approved.

    I don't see the original article, but its doubtfull that Singer put his name on it inccorrectly. But It does appear people like goerge will did take his statements out of context, according to his daughter.
    Google Groups

    So in 1990 he thought there wasn't a consensus on how much the earth would warm or the effects. He thought that would take a decade or two for science to nail it down. Well its been 24 years. There is a consensus that much of the warming is caused by man, but no consensus on how much it will warm or if it will be catastrophic. He didn't think drastic action should be taken, simply smart action like $1/gallon gas tax to use less oil and shifting electricity from coal to natural gas.

    He was one of the pinoneers of studying global climate change, and set up mona loa observatory, and did the early work. But he didn't preach catastrophe to raise money. He had already shifted to political science and helped the green revolution when he inspired his student al gore to learn about green house gases and how they affect the planet.

    I give Al gore a gentleman's C on the matter, and Coleman an D-.
    Roger Revelle : Feature Articles
     
    #23 austingreen, Oct 31, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2014
  4. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I see no point in debating the "evidence" as it has been thoroughly adulterated by politics which has thrown the scientific process asunder in a sea of left-right propaganda. I am merely pointing out that there is value in examining the efforts of those who have attempted a dispassionate and objective review of the evidence, nothing more. Some of these climate skeptics (in the best sense of the word) are known for their intellect and objectivity.

    I have no intention of entering another citation-war, where vast amounts of time and text accomplish nothing at all. I'm simply offering up my personal approach to the subject for others to either consider or dismiss.
     
  5. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    There is a huge problem with serious pollution issues. There is a nightmare of a problem when an indirect and irregular symptom of an issue is used to name the issue. I do not know what the course of global climate or global warming will be. I do know that taking every ounce of coal, oil, and natural gas out of the earth's crust and dumping the entire major waste product into our atmosphere will cause issues...possibly very very destructive issues.

    So putting "global warming" aside for a second, what do you think about turning the billions of tons of carbon stored in the crust and just dumping every last bit of the waste into the environment? I'm hard pressed to find any example of blinding dumping of waste products having a null result.
     
  6. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I hope to live long enough to see the beginning of a truly sustainable planet. One that does not deplete resources, change the atmosphere or pollute the land and water. Energy that is clean, cheap and non-polluting. Foods that are natural, nutritious and delicious.

    All these things are attainable now, but as always, politics interferes. Until we can belay our competitive nature, and channel it away from politics and into sports where it belongs, we can have hope. I do.
     
  7. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    well seems to be a lot of grandfathers

    At the risk of over-simplifying, in the US/Canada, we have a centrist position that says climate change is happening but stops short of recommending action, we have a left/liberal postion that feels climate change is the immediate threat, but it's not too late to save the planet, but to do so we begin immediate phase out of fossil fuels and leave them in the ground; and we have a denialist right wing position that Coleman seems to be part of.

    Personally, I am a centrist, and a grandfather, and my concern is lack of supply of resources as my grand kids become grandparents/and so on. So I like Prii.
     
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Canada, no, not in policy. They are near the botteom of the pack of first world countries, and seem to have policies that are almost pro-ghg. The US is rather centrist and reducing ghg production faster than most other countries, but starting from a very high level per capita. The policy has been baby steps versus the massive growth in ghg in the 1970s. Higher cafe standards, various state initiatives to grow renewables, federal rules pushing some switch of coal to natural gas have the US reducing ghg faster than most countries.

    This stops far short of the reasonable action Revelle advocated as we figure out how hot the earth will get, and what the consequenes will be. Science since he has died has advanced, and now the scientific consensus is even more in favor of his theories. I don't think this is a left/right or a conservative/liberal issue or a republican/democratic issue. It has become highly politicized though. We can name names and of the politicians that seem to get the science the most wrong to push through their agenda are Senators like James Inhofe congressional representatives like Michelle Bachman, and Governors like Rick Perry (his replacement is likely to be the guy that sued the EPA to not regulate ghg). The worst of the worst corporatations here is the koch brothers in promoting groups that put out the bad science and policy. No doubt those partisans out there will notice that all the worst are republican, but when it comes to polls democratic and republican voters are about the same when it comes to action to reduce coal and oil use. Democratic voters are also just as likely as republican voters to believe global warming is a hoax. I think using the term denier on these voters, instead of honestly discussing the issues, is counter productive. and part of the mess we are in. A democrat in west virginia is far more likely to think Anthopologic climate change is a hoax than a republican in california. A uaw democrat is likely to be more against doing things to reduce oil use, than a high tech libertarian. Ok what about those great democrats Pelosi and Reid who crafted that tax and cap plan. BP, Enron, and Duke Enery (one of the biggest coal energy companies) were all on the cap and tax band waggon, well enron was a driver until it collapsed under fraud. Those scorers have found that we have probably cut greenhouse gas more than if we had passed the plan. Those big energy companies were for it, because they would have been able to get a lot of government money if it passed. That was one reason climate change advocate and scientist Hansen was so against it. Good action and policy seems to be an orphan in the congress. Luckily the last couple of presidents did some things that didn't need congress, and we are cutting oil and coal use. Here I happily blame Obama for higher cafe standards and for having an epa that is regulating cross state coal pollution.

    Ok onto the science. I think coleman gets it really wrong in most areas. Absolutely the facts are against him when he says the scientists are faking this for the money. Definitely he is onto something when he says a lot is about politics, but somehow he doesn't see the 2+2 of the politics of coal and oil adiction. A lot of us would like to have those politicians addicted to campaign contributions to protect strip mining, that they need to go cold turkey (get thrown out of government) and let the government stop the destructive behaviour. :)

    I would agree with him that there is no consensus that climate change will be catastrophic, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't take steps to decrease the risk of the catastrophe. That is especially true of things that may be good for the country anyway, even if the climate change turns out less than expected.
     
  9. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I'm not sure how you can speak for Canada, but I certainly know a lot of Canadians who are all over the spectrum on this issue.

    The word "denialist" is disturbing at the best of times, but it's use in the climate debate is most regrettable, because is signals an intolerance for other points of view, something anathema to what Canadians hold dear; our tolerant and respectful society.

    I was taught that science is about giving a fair hearing to any scientific challenge, not ignoring, dismissing, ridiculing ideas not your own, or using pejorative labels such as "denier."

    It's not a football game or a political race, this is our home for god sake, and the last thing we should be doing is acting like children.
     
  10. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...I was trying to be inclusive but I was born in Buffalo...close on this..but OK
    I do agree exactly, I do also feel Canadians are more open to discussion...I used to work up there sometimes..

    So the polarization and name calling is just us Americans? Yes I think the debate we are having in the USA on climate change very heated and unlike the rest of the world. We are off on our own tangent, to some extent.
     
    #30 wjtracy, Oct 31, 2014
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2014
  11. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    If my post somehow gave you that impression, I apologize, but I still don't see anything that would suggest that I'm saying it's "just Americans." Certainly the disease is becoming almost universal. Dispassionate science, adhering to the scientific method, devoid of political partisanship is all but extinct.
     
  12. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    If there's one thing to know about science, it's that consensus is not scientific. Consensus is a political term, not a scientific one.

    It's about evidence, pure and simple. You don't get to "vote" on whether the evidence is true or false. It has to be weighed scientifically. That's what science is for.
     
  13. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    No need for apology, we are discussing ideas, and it is my personal feeling that the AGW debate is more acrimonous in the USA. IN the USA we are having a politcal battle for the future winners and losers, and we basically like negative campaign ads as a political tactic.

    Getting back to Coleman, to me it's possible his position, that AGW may not be so bad, is possibly correct with the passage of time. If fact we had probably better hope he is correct because my guess is that's sort of where we are headed (higher CO2). But in all honesty Coleman's ideas to me seem somehat unscientific, incorrect and emotional. If I want to get a more well-thought out dose of that side of the debate, I go to Cato Institure guys like Jerry Taylor and Pat Michaels. Taylor seems less active these days.
     
  14. wxman

    wxman Active Member

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    I agree. It seems that anyone who steps out-of-line with the "catastrophic AGW" orthodoxy is labeled with the dreaded "D" word. This includes anyone who questions the results of atmospheric models (i.e., climate models) projecting atmospheric conditions decades in the future.

    I don't really agree with John Coleman. I personally believe we're conducting a vast empirical study of what increasing trace amounts of strong IR-absorbing gases (e.g., CO2, CH4) will do to climates around the world, and reducing GHG emissions is probably a worthwhile goal. However, just because a suite of GCMs depict increasingly intense droughts/storms/floods, etc., doesn't necessarily mean that that's what will happen, based on my experience with numerical weather prediction models and their ensembles.
     
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  15. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I respect any thoughtful opinion, based on reasonable examination of evidence, even if its diometrically opposed to my own.
     
  16. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Here's a pretty good recent college "debate" about Climate Change with Pat Michaels and Judith Curry.
    Both have some sentiments like Coleman voiced. Some good ideas I think.
    Michaels is little hard to take sometimes, but the one thing he said that worries me too is we are sort of going backwards on science these days.

     
  17. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Politics is definitely involved here is canada
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/22/opinion/sunday/silencing-scientists.html?_r=0
    But in canada it seems the government wants to scilence those results that point to danger to the environment including climate change, land, air, and water pollution from the development of the oil sands. Canada signed then backed out of kyoto. I can definitely understand the reasons to back out, but when the government silences its own scientists that may want to go slower or stop oil sands development then science has been politicized.

    In germany we have an example where things have gone the other way.
    Meteorologist Lennart Bengtsson Joins Climate Skeptic Think Tank - SPIEGEL ONLINE
    This all seems reasonable to me, but he felt a lot of pressure, and ended up quitting.
    Climate Scientists Mixed over Controversy Surrounding Respected Researcher - SPIEGEL ONLINE

    Coleman also doesn't seem to done any real research, he is selecting various real and grey reports to foward a political agenda.
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I do not follow personalities very much in this field, it is more than enough to try to keep up with the literature. So, what I know about Bengtsson comes from reading here (and posted links). It is enough to interest me in reading his manuscript that Envtl Res Let declined. Maybe it went to another journal? There is nothing preventing Bengtsson from posting it online himself. Has anyone seen it?

    The concept of citation war seems odd with respect to Prius Chat. I and others post links to scientific literature here, but not a hug number (it seems to me). And when we do, the goal is generally to give people the opportunity to compare different studies and their results. See which ones make more sense to you. Not much of a war.

    But I guess if you have nothing to cite, you have to say something...
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Bengtsson's manuscript may be here:
    klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/2013/03/lennart-bengtsson-global-climate-change.html

    But dangit, websites that include 'blogspot' are not accessible in all countries :rolleyes:

    Somebody please take a look and perhaps make it available by other means.
     
  20. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    It's not our fault that you live in a country that censors the internet.