EPA and DOT to Require 54.5 MPG by 2025

Relates to http://priuschat.com/forums/other-cars/100186-ttac-epa-releases-2017-2025-cafe-proposed-rule.html.

I've only skimmed the fact sheet so far, but maybe I should reply w/a comment to them to actually list out the Monroney sticker numbers somewhere in the final proposal instead of these misleading, inflated doublespeak numbers. It'd be nice if it were an extra column in a table, in an appendix, in the summary or something along those lines.

 

Of course, this is assuming that there is any oil left in 2025.

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(yes, there probably will be oil remaining, but a lot less than we have today, and a gallon will probably cost you a good amount of money)

 

Key point from 6 Ways New CAFE Standards Could Affect You - Edmunds.com relating to the doublespeak that Edmunds has written about many times before:

I really wish the press would report on this more.

Nightly Business Report simply reported on the "54.5 mpg" proposal.

I just stumbled across this great FAQ and timeline at http://www.edmunds.com/fuel-economy/faq-new-corporate-average-fuel-economy-standards.html.

 

To be fair... The NHTSA/DOT has never reported any numbers other than the true laboratory results of its tests, protocols and future standards. It's always been this way ever since CAFE was instituted.

It's the EPA that has been, 'fudging' the numbers if you will, due to political pressures to make the sticker labels more reflective of real-world driving. That's why the EPA dropped the G2 Prius number from 60 mpg Hwy.

The DOT does the testing for each and every vehicle. It does it one way. It then reports these raw results as part of the CAFE program. The EPA takes this raw data and performs 2 or 3 'adjustments' to arrive at a Maroney sticker value.

IMO to keep consistent with prior values as reported by the DOT it should continue to use the raw data values it obtains from its testing. The EPA can continue to blow with the political winds as the public sees fit.

 

Don't exempt the DOT/NHSTA from political games too quickly. IIRC they came up with the idiotic alt vehicle fudge factors

I expect this proposal to die. The repubs have IMO successfully framed environmentalism as one of the causes of the recession. Pres Obama does not have enough political goodwill left to push this through.

 

If we all got 50mpg and slashed national oil imports by half, $$$$$$$$$, it would be a huge economic stimulus. Same goes for all energy expenditures. That freed up money that each household would have would be spent in other areas of the economy as an economic stimulus.

 

I've never kept track of who is only reporting the raw dyno numbers.

I guess my main point is that whoever is issuing press releases that the press picks up on (IMHO) ought to be REQUIRED to state what the Monroney sticker equivalents are. The way it's being reported by mainstream media is downright misleading.

The problem is what this quote from the Edmunds FAQ:

I suspect 90+% of the general public has no idea what really is going on and either thinks "GREAT! 54.5 mpg! Awesome!" or "That's fricking impossible. It's going to create cars nobody wants that are slugs, dangerous, wimpy, etc. and make trucks and SUVs way too expensive..."

Long ago, one of my college classmates and former FB friends complained about some of the new CAFE standards would create "putt, putt cars that nobody wants". I had to go into this long explanation of the disparity and gave him some actual raw EPA dyno numbers...

If the press only said, something like "this 54.5 mpg would be the equivalent of approximately 36 mpg combined on the window sticker... here are some cars now that already achieve or surpass this... and here are some others that are almost there..."

 

Most surely -- please do not take my comment as meaning the repub framing has a basis in reality, only that it has been successful.

 

It was cafe 27.5 for cars in most of the 2000s so if all cars were cafe 54.5 we would be using just over half the gasoline. I think this year is 31, so the new plan is 57% of the fuel per mile, but there is a big caveat, you need to replace all the lower mileage cars. If this was the average today the US would not need to import any opec oil, but by the time the cafe is that high there will be much less domestic oil.

 

What a gigantic governmental boondoggle, you want to reduce consumption, raise the gas tax, it will cost the people less money than the red tape this law creates. That money could be going to help rebuild our decaying infrastructure, can't do that however, it makes too much sense.

 

What red tape are you talking about? A few lawmakers and industry people got together and created the rules to implement CAFE 54.5.

Now a fuel tax would also work. It works very well in Europe. But given the state of politics in the USA right now who's the one who's going to step up to the podium and propose a $2 or $4 fuel surcharge tax which will go into the Federal coffers...uhhhh....no one.

That's a horse which will never leave the gate. Sorry next idea.

 

I think that one of the Edmunds links earlier in the thread stated the average life of most new vehicles now is 17 yrs. It'll be a gradual process to ge the older less efficient ones off the roads.

Optimistically Natural Gas, electricity, biodiesel and other fuels will fill in the shortfall that we'll be seeing in liquid petroleum products.

 

I agree that both of you have a valid point. There are many old cars that live on, but there are many old cars that do NOT survive. When engines get to 200K to 300K miles, sure some might survive, but most do not.

Another thing to consider is that as the value of the vehicle goes down and people with less money buy it, people living in poverty are not going to purchase a 5000 pound Suburban that gets 12mpg. We see them today because they were purchased in 2008 or so, but I don't think many people in poverty in 2012 want a 12mpg 5000 pound SUV. Those things are headed for the compactors and recycle bins. Now that recycling parts and materials channels have grown in volume, and recyclers have found more and more buyers for the recycled materials, automobile recycling facilities are able to offer more cash for old cars.

I was actually watching a show on History channel last week that was a tour of an auto recycler. The first thing they do is drain any gasoline from the tank and sell it. Then they drain all the other fluids and sell it. There is money before they even get to the metal and plastic. It's profitable. When an old car gets down enough in value, recyclers buy it just to rip off the useful parts and then shred and sell the metal, plastic, and glass, and make a profit. So that old car may be able to run for someone in poverty, but when the price gets low enough, a recycler will buy it for the materials.

"The Nikkei says that the Kanagawa plant (halfway between Tokyo and Yokohama) will open in July. It has the capacity to process some 40,000 tons of scrap a year, which comes from automobile crushing sites in the Tokyo area. When the plant is through with the scrap, 9,000 tons of steel, copper and other valuable metals will have been sorted out." And that's just for part of Japan! Imagine the global recycling market.
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/04/huge-new-fuel-source-found-old-cars/

"ARA (Automotive Recyclers Association) services approximately 1,000 member companies through direct membership and over 2,000 other companies through our affiliated chapters."
http://www.a-r-a.org/content.asp?pl=505&contentid=505

"We Buy Junk Cars" $$$$ http://www.rustysautosalvage.com/

http://www.rustysautosalvage.com/environmentally-friendly-auto-recycling.html

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I stumbled across this today, thanks to Flipboard.

Can We Hit the Target?: The 54.5-MPG Fuel-Economy Standard Looms Large – Feature – Car and Driver | Car and Driver Blog

At least the graph has the Gen 3 Prius listed correctly, using the unadjusted CAFE numbers (~70 mpg), which is also what the "54.5 mpg" also refers to, as a reminder.

Some related threads on the same topic:
5 Automakers Stand Behind 54.5 MPG Fuel Standard | PriusChat
Have you heard about the new CAFE ruling? | PriusChat