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Deep ocean NOT Warming ,ocean holds No missing heat

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by mojo, Nov 27, 2014.

  1. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Trenberth's theory that the 18 year lack of global warming is because heat is hiding in the deep oceans ,is proven to be more climate science BullSh$t .

    "This past October 6, scientists with NASA released a new report saying that, according to evidence at hand, the deep ocean hasn't experienced any major changes temperature-wise since 2005 until now."
    The Deep Ocean Is Still Cold, Which Means Earth Is Missing Some Heat - Softpedia
     
  2. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    I've used Trenberth as a credible source for admitting that global air temperatures haven't risen in 16 years. He is after all, one of the champions of the AGW movement, along with Michael Mann and Phil Jones. Others who hysterically claim that air-temperatures have indeed risen, are always quoting others who have made equally questionable assertions about it. Trenberth was my "rock" of credibility, who's assertions were hard to question, because of his deep involvement and commitment to climate science. When he says global air temperatures haven't risen since 1998, we should believe him.

    Kevin Trenberth was also searching for rationale to support the AGW hypothesis, and deep-ocean warming was his latest endeavor in that direction. His working assertion was: "the temperature is still rising, but it's manifesting itself in the deep ocean." If this NASA report is correct, it threatens to unravel the whole AGW hypothesis. I'd be very surprised if Kevin Trenberth were the type to ignore evidence of this type just to support his conclusions.

    The 'Consensus' View: Kevin Trenberth's Take On Climate Change : NPR

    But I sense a come-to-Jesus moment coming for Trenberth and other climate scientists who also have a conscience. These scientists don't rely on creative accounting and fudged data for their assertions; they need real data, and it's in danger of being falsified by the real world.

    Here's hoping that he may be the first one of his group to defect to the side of the truth.
     
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    What truth would that be ?
     
  4. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Whatever the evidence tells us.
    As soon as we start listening.

    It's more like a religion; people are believing what others are telling them to believe.
     
  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I see. So when Trenberth says AGW is real, he is confused by religion; whereas when he points out data that you think is inconsistent with AGW then he is acting like a scientist.
     
  6. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Correction, he said, "it's real, but it's not in the atmosphere; maybe it's deep in the ocean." This latest study will be a test of many things, including his character.
     
  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^Nonsense.
    If he thinks the study was well done and accurate, he will say "not there."
    Otherwise he will say "still a maybe."

    I haven't been following this line of AGW closely, but it seems the scientific inquiry was directed towards clarifying the cause of ocean rise. To the extent that the rise is not explained by temperature, I'll posit the difference is from land based ice melt.
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    fuzzy1 likes this.
  9. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Nope. The OP showed us a NASA study which shows that the deep ocean is not warming, as Trenberth had hoped. We'll have to see what his next move is. This may have been his last option.

    Call me a denier Bob, but that's not enough ocean rise to convince me that we're all headed for disaster.

    I've been to the Columbia Icefield west of here, where they have put up signs for where the glacier's edge was over the years, going back into the 1850s. It looks like about a mile or so from the glacier to the first sign. There has been a steady retreat of the glacier in all that time (160+ years), and I suppose it's been happening that way since the end of the Ice Age. If it's been happening like that everywhere, that might account for the gradual rise in seal level in your chart, all by itself.
     
    #9 GregP507, Nov 27, 2014
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 27, 2014
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Ok, what you said:
    I would prefer to call your posts useful.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    Source: CU Sea Level Research Group | University of Colorado
    Other folks living at the 1993 shoreline may have issues. Perhaps Canute's descendants will command the sea not to rise. I'm about 185,900 mm above sea level using the earth thermometer scale.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  12. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    It's all about evidence, s____d.

    I'm not convinced that's an abnormal amount of ocean rise. Call me whatever you want.
     
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Greg, I can't tell @12 whether you agree with me about evidence or not. Please post more clues.

    I did post the Llovel et al abstract in the adjacent thread where it was first mentioned. My fellow seekers after evidence will be at least as interested in what the authors wrote, as they are in softpedia's impressions.
     
  14. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    My understanding is that sea level has been rising at the same approx. rate for the last 100-200 yrs...so sea level is indeed rising, but the CO2 link is weak. Additionally in some areas like Virginia Beach, the ground at the shore is sinking at about the same rate the sea level is rising. So basically double trouble...if sea level rise increases further due to CO2...then triple trouble and some shore areas should assume a more dramatic change for planning purposes.
     
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we sold our beach house two years ago.
     
  16. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    wjtracy, depending on which paper by Church and White you read, sea-level rise has been constant (since 1850 IIRC) or showed a slight acceleration to the current rate in about 1920. The difference appears to be based on which early tidal gauges are included.
     
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  17. GregP507

    GregP507 Senior Member

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    Back to the OP, Kevin Trenberth is one of the kingpins of the global warming (climate change movement) and he has said publicly that the earth's atmosphere hasn't warmed since 1998. However he was trying to account for the warming in the deep ocean. Now the NASA study seems to have disproved it was happening. This leaves Kevin Trenberth with a dilemma. Where is the evidence for global warming, now?
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Back to the OP,I did post the Llovel et al abstract in the adjacent thread where it was first mentioned. I think it informs our discussions here.
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Certainly the melt is important for sea level and navigation but the thermal expansion plays a big role in sea level rise. When I was a mechanical engineering student, I had to calculate the change in volume of a sphere when the temperature changed and it was impressive. So I'm happy to use satellite observed, sea level changes as the earth themometer:
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    Source: CU Sea Level Research Group | University of Colorado

    This suggests an interesting approach, a back-of-the envelope technique:
    • treat the sea surface as a water sphere, 1 m deep at the earth's radius
    • use the sea level increase and coefficient of expansion to calculate the temperature rise
    I had a similar assignment as an undergraduate mechanical undergraduate. It turns out the expansion of a solid sphere is the same as a hollow ball of the same material.

    Bob Wilson
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    I don't share Greg's enthusiasm for making Llovel et al a referendum on Trenberth. If I were that 'kingpin', though, I'd probably want to do a calculation along the lines I have now done in the adjacent related thread. Then I'd probably say "If missing heat were on the scale of 10s of watts per square meter, or larger, it may be within technology to detect it in deep oceans. If on the scale of 1 watt (or less), the deep ocean cannot be usefully probed with current thermometers."

    I suppose it's possible that Trenberth did such, even spoke of it. Are excerpts of media interviews the full story? Presume so at your own risk.

    Climate change is not tied to Trenberth's neck, notwithstanding Greg's hope. Millennial paleotemperatures are not tied to Mann's neck, notwithstanding AustinG's hope. We ought to look for concordance among various lines of published evidence, and see where that leads, regardless of what we might hope to be true.

    Sounds great eh? May not be easy, or fit the lives of busy PCers. So do it, or cast your lot with scientific societies that sum it up. Or, with affinity websites. Or with the IPCC or NIPCC. Or, last of all, with PC posters like me ;)

    "Where is the evidence for global warming, now?"
    Right where it was before Llovel was published. But I can't make you look.