RIP PiP?

1. At 30K miles a year, you're clearly driving in a pattern that exceeds the electric range of the PIP, and hence not saving enough in gallons saved by using electric.
2. My breakdown of of EV versus HV is roughly 50-50, driving 10K miles annually.
3. Earlier this year, the PiP cost less than even a Prius Two because of Toyota, local, state, and federal incentives. In that case, when I bought it, it was a no brainer.

 

if money is all that matters to you in this world, good luck with that.

 

You also have to account for the opportunity cost of the extra $65,000 you would be paying for the Tesla S.

 

For such a rigorous analysis, you seem to have totally ignored Federal and State tax incentives and/or rebates. The price delta between a Prius Three (creature comfort comparable to the base PiP) and PiP is substantially less than the $5K price difference and with some dealers may even approach zero.

And if you expect gasoline to remain at seven year lows and electric rates at $.16/kWh, I have a bridge to sell you.

 

Maryland has a low sales tax (6%) and a small PiP incentive ($550 I think). Also CARB state for 150k miles warranty. That's good. What makes sense to me Cyclo (for Va.) is a low miles 2012 PiP for say $18-19K. But you are correct with fairly high elec costs MD is getting close to parity. CA has had some lower PiP prices, HOV access, bigger rebate, and higher gaso taxes to tip the balance.

 

You should add RIP Prius. A Mitsubishi Mirage costs $13k and gets 37 mpg combined. At 30k miles a year and $3.97 a gallon, that's over 14 years to make up the cost to a Prius Two.

I mean, if it's all about fuel costs, the winner is right there.

 

The "drop" in oil prices is due to an increase in the value of the dollar. Even though oil/gas prices have dropped ~20%+, Toyota is now making 20% more just because the dollar went from ~100 yen to ~120 yen. If Toyota really wants to, they can shave 20% off the price of a Prius in the US and still maintain the profit margins they had earlier this year.

USD to JPY Exchange Rate - Bloomberg

oil/gas likely won't stay below $3/gallon. Back in 2008 it was $1.80/gallon, but it didn't stay there. A strong dollar will reduce high cost oil production, and that will nudge prices up. I doubt the eurozone will stay weak forever, which will also push prices up.

My guess is that gas prices will revert to their average price over the past decade of ~$3.25/gallon within a year or few.

Shale Boom Tested as Sub-$90 Oil Threatens U.S. Drillers - Bloomberg

 

meanwhile, heating oil continues to rise.

 

Well Prius is a winner for two reasons: roomy, practical, reliable car with, by the way, very high MPG. If Mirage can top that, then its a Prius killer, but so far we have not seen a real threat.

 

I think it's less than that when you factor in maintenance. Most cars IME require pads every ~50k-100k miles and pads/rotors and/or shoes/drums about twice that, which is ~$1k-2k over ~200k miles.

There will likely be other maintenance issues, mostly b/c the Mirage is a 1st gen vehicle IIRC, and because of those my WAG is that the payback period is likely closer to 8-10 years at least a 30k miles/year. With city miles it's lower and highway it's higher.

 

Cyclo- at least 50% of all Plug-ins are being sold in CA where there is a major HOV incentive. Specifically for PiP it could be over 60% sold in CA. We do not have state-by-state sales figures (except we know CA overall PHEV and BEV sales). So we have to wonder if PiP sales will continue strong after Ca phases out PHEV HOV access, but right now every time Ca reaches the limit, they add more green stickers. If gas prices continue to be low, and CA HOV green sickers run out, that could be interesting to see where sales go.

I think a used PiP might work for our family as we are phasing out of work commuting, so most of all our trips tend to be local these days, and that's where the EV mode has a strong plus, and where regular Prius is less good MPG during first 5 mins. For 30k miles a year it is a harder case for PiP: you lose a spare tire, lose a little space, and gaso tank is a touch smaller. In that case, if you are not in CA, and unless you really want to Plug_in for personal preference, then probably stick with Prius.

 

MSRP is not an accurate basis for comparison as only Tesla sells at that price.

I'm willing to bet Tesla is the only company NOT having a problem moving inventory.

Nissan is putting a lot of cash on the hood to move the LEAF & selling prices are low. Other manufacturers also have large incentives on their inventory.

 

I'm getting some very different number. A base M/T Mirage is at 37mpg combined, and a Prius C is at 50mpg combined, which is a ~210 gallon/year difference. Even with gas prices weak at ~$3/gallon, that's still $630 more per year.

Insurance costs really depends on the driver. My wife only pays $60/year more for her $25k 2014 PIP than I do for my $5k 2005 Prius, so the amount saved on brakes/other maintenance items in a Prius would be much greater than the increase in insurance premiums for us.

We're both experienced drivers with no at-fault accidents, so someone who is younger might have to pay more for insurance, but still, my guess is a <7 year payback for most drivers. Younger drivers would have a longer payback period.

I imagine both cars would make it ~210k miles, unless there's some sort of serious flaw in the Mirage powertrain, but if my experience is any indication the Prius can do it with no repairs required if standard maintenance is followed.

 

Lots of exaggerating in your statements, but that particular over contradicts fact.

I can go 50 miles using gas for $2.79

I can go 50 miles using electricity for $0.60

If you own a PiP, plugging in is clearly beneficial, even at present rates. In the future, gas will go up and batteries come down, making three purchase decision easier too.

 

i can't wait!