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Slew of new mirai articles

Discussion in 'Fuel Cell Vehicles' started by austingreen, Dec 15, 2014.

  1. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    Those are more than weasel words, let's just call that a flat out lie.

    Gasbuddy.com shows that premium is available in Sacramento for $2.65-2.70 a gallon (there are some even cheaper stations there).

    A Hyundai Tucson conventional model gets 25 mpg EPA. The FCV version gets 49 miles per kg. so, take the H2 price per kg and divide by 2 to find the equivalent gasoline price. That makes H2 equivalent to $6.80 per gallon.

    Since premium is actually $2.67 per gallon that means H2 is 250% the cost of premium gasoline, or 150% higher, not "30% higher".

    Now, sure, gas prices have been falling and maybe the reporter called the guy a few weeks ago and just got around to posting the story. Even if you reached back a year or two ago when urban CA premium gas was $4.50, today's equivalent cost of H2 would be 50% higher than that.

    So....lier, lier, pants on fire. :)
     
    #101 Jeff N, Dec 22, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2014
  2. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    When they calculated it they were using 2.5x, claiming fuel cell vehicles are 2.5x more efficient than gasoline vehicles. This was likely done by comparing japanese 10-15 tests to US epa tests. Imagine if we treated the prius this way. That Japanese prius goes 1.78 as far on a gallon of gas (89 mpg on 10-15 test, 50 mpg epa). Lets be really generous tucson phev 49 m/kg, tucson gas 2.4 l awd 22 mpg.

    Compare Side-by-Side
    but really you could get a cr-v awd that goes 28 mpg, or a lexus nxh awed 32 mpg, or a prius v 42 mpg.

    For the mirai, side by side looks worse. we can compare the camry and fusion hybrids, the fusion energi, and the prius.

    I do think they can bring the cost of hydrogen down, but if you include the price of the fueling station this is about as inexpensive as we can get as taxpayers. If the cars don't come we don't have to pay as much for O/M, the hydrogen is trucked in as a liquid. No reason to build a 300 car a day station with a reformer, when we are not expecting many cars.
     
  3. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The Mirai looks worse with every new photo I see. Like the first generation Tiburon, it's different, but nothing stands out as bad or good on first impression. Then you notice that the corner grill, which is mostly blocked off, and the front corner panel look like a jet intake. Which could work on a dedicated sports car, but this is a 4 door sedan. Those panels and grill make the car look front heavy.

    Then there is the headlight height gap between the corner panel and hood. It makes the hood look like it didn't quite belongs on the car. Or if the engineers needed more engine bay top space, but forgot to tell the team doing the exterior until the last minute. It invokes the weirdness of that European hatch with the head lights or high beams right at the base of the windshield.

    I don't want to see the rear now, and rather look at the manga artwork that comes up on Google images first.
     
  5. inferno

    inferno Senior Member

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  6. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    That's sort of a good big picture article with links off to other detailed articles.

    On the other hand, some of it is pretty misleading. Hydrogen is $3 GGE? It's actually $10-14 in reality, so that's more than a little off.

    It also describes the NG steam reforming process as emitting only a little bit of CO2 and doesn't describe the energy needed to refrigerate, compress, and/or transport the hydrogen.
    The actual overall CO2-equivalent emissions from steam reformed hydrogen in an FCV is about the same as a gasoline hybrid car and so is still 2/3 the amount emitted by an convention gasoline version of the same car.

    You wouldn't know that by reading the article.
     
    #106 Jeff N, Dec 23, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2014
  7. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I thought this was the best part, 1978 Jack Nicholson talking about a hydrogen car.

    For those that don't want to watch, it appears to be using metal hydride tanks, through a current at the time carborated ice. They planned to use PV, which was fairly new back then having its modern intruction in 1954. They estimated hydrogen could get produced for $0.35/kg ($1.27 in 2014 dollars). The PV has come a long way since 1978, not quite as far as those inventors had hoped, but the metal hydride storage is still heavy and expensive, with not enough progress With nano-materials a breakthrough (you know one of the miracles) could make metal hydride storage much better, reducing the cost of service stations and trucking hydrogen. Still its been a long time waiting for breakthroughs.

    I think they keyed off this piece from car and driver -
    Hydrogen Filling Stations Are Still Rare
    That just is for producing the hydrogen. The tank only sacremento station just completed was over $2M for trucked in liquid hydrogen.
    That's from 2008. Now NREL believes you can produce 1kg for around $2/kg (natural gas) if you have stations that dispense for 300 cars a day. The operating expenses and depretiation would require that such a unsubidized station would have to charge $4.50/kg. We aren't close to 300 car a day volume (100 stations in california would have if cars filled once a week, 200,000 cars but no one believes with such a small network you would get that many takers). Get the volume though and $4.50 that would get some takers if say 1500 stations were built, allowing people to drive everywhere. That isn't going to happen unless the cars get much better though to sell that many. Blast from the past going with the 2008 article.
    Running On Empty: Is the 2011 Chevrolet Volt Hype or Hope? - Car News - Car and Driver
    Yep phev prices have dropped and are much more popular than fcv.
     
    #107 austingreen, Dec 23, 2014
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2014
  8. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    Although the speculated future scaled-up prices in that NREL doc are in 2007 dollars so add 14% inflation.
     
  9. ftl

    ftl Explicator

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  10. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    The numbers in that article are messed up. Perhaps a bad translation to English from Japanese?

    The article can't decide if there are 100 yen to the dollar or 120. It thinks it makes sense to equate a kg of hydrogen to a liter of gasoline. It thinks a Honda Civic HF (non-hybrid) goes 3.6 times farther than a Prius C on a yen worth of gasoline.

    Even after all that it still correctly concludes that the Mirai is a weird bird that doesn't give a cluck.
     
    #110 Jeff N, Jan 4, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2015
  11. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    current prices in Japan are about 135 yen/liter gasoline. A lot of that is lower cost of oil plus japanese taxes. They are talking about 1000 yen/kg as subsidized cost of hydrogen.

    The mirai is 4300 yen to fill (I guess 0.7 kg of space in not usable in the 5kg tanks, and goes 650km. Fairly straightforward 0.15 km/yen. The prius c at 35 km/l and a liter costing 135 yen is .26 km/yen or almost twice as far. Nice these match the article. The hybrid goes about 70% farther for the same amount of money. I don't know the efficiency of the hf, but someone fudged those numbers.

    In Japan fuel costs aren't far off conventional versus hydrogen, but hybrids cost less yen to go the same distance. In the US the mirai will get around 62 miles/kg. The prius c 50 mpg. The civic hf 35 mpg. In california gas prices are $2.65/gallon, much less expensive than japan. The price of hydrogen, well who knows but toyota estimates around $10/kg which is why in california hyundai and toyota will be buying your state subsidized hydrogen. It costs much more than gasoline for an efficient car.
     
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  12. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    PHEV still has gas engine, therefore they are not zero tailpipe emission. BEVs and FCVs should get the same incentive, in my opinion, depending on how clean they are.

    The real question is, why is Volt getting the same incentive as the Leaf? That's the uneven level playing field.

    The chart said Toyota calculation so, it was probably made by them. As discussed, the data is still valid when the Japanese fuel economy numbers are used (as the chart indicated).

    Where can I buy a fusion powered, air powered, PM powered car anywhere in the world? Do you still see FCV as a pipe dream? Wake up, they are here.

    Are you forgetting that PHEV has gas engine that needs to be maintained?

    BEV need standard super fast charging stations and more driving range. Grid electricity needs to be cleaner as well.

    FCV don't have the same challenges as BEV instead, new ones. In my opinion, they are not difficult. Since FCV has the advantages of both HEV and BEV, it is worth pursuing.

    H2 is not a primary fuel, just like electricity. You can generate is with any primary fuel. Why invest in it? Well, to remove the bottleneck. What bottleneck? The refueling speed and vehicle range scalability -- doing it without a combustion engine.

    I like a nice toasty warm home. It is better/cheaper to heat homes with NG than with electricity.


    Merged consecutive posts, please use multiquote
     
    #112 usbseawolf2000, Jan 5, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 5, 2015
  13. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Theoretically, yes. In practice, the source fuel is going to be NG at best, petroleum or coal at worse.

    Heating homes with NG is silly. Insulate instead.
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Some places you have to do both.
    However, I prefer heating with electricity over natural gas via geo thermal.
    This doesn't work everywhere, but for us it maximizes the percentage of renewables.
     
  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    That would be an unusual place. PassivHaus spec'd homes are also built in Finland.

    Now, I know that the overwhelming number of houses in the US are poorly built. My point to USB was that much more sensible future housing development be based on well insulated homes and not homes heated by NG.
     
  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Sure, Passivehaus is great, just sucks on the cost.

    Instead of getting perfect, you can much more easily get to 95%.
    While there is still a need for hvac, it has such small requirements that electric heat works just fine.
     
  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Germany now builds to PassivHaus standards at the same cost as conventional. To me it is a no brainer for a country to invest in local PassivHaus industry rather than a NG based hydrogen economy. Pennies on the dollar, and vastly more sound environmentally.
    PV+ASHP is pretty damned awesome, particularly when combined with smart passive building and conservation.

    PassivHaus is not 'perfect,' it just lowers the home heating and cooling loads way down.
     
    #117 SageBrush, Jan 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2015
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    We don't have the info to call on whether maintaining a fuel cell and hydrogen tanks will be the same or better than an ICE. Early stacks had short lifespans. No hard numbers have been released for the latest ones. DOT requires expiration dates for CNG tanks. No details about this in regards to hydrogen tanks holding a more aggressive gas at higher pressures have been released.

    Gird can always be cleaner. You just need less electric to move a plug in the same distance as a FCV using renewable hydrogen. Until there are some lab breakthroughs, renewable hydrogen will be made by electrolysis. Clean electricity going onto the grid can't be shuffled away from plug ins to hydrogen plants. They will both be using the same mix.

    Without mandates and/or subsidies, the hydrogen for these cars will come from natural gas. Pretending that hydrogen generation will quickly move to some renewable method while plug ins are stuck using an unimproving grid is a disservice to the discussion.

    ICE's aren't limited to gasoline or even diesel from petroleum. We have powered them with peanut oil and coal dust in the past, and currently run them of ethanol, methanol, CNG, LNG, biodiesel, SVO, WVO, plus there is ongoing research into biomatter to liquid for diesel and gasoline. if pushed, we have the means to net up the flotsam plastic fields in the oceans and convert it back into a sweet crude.

    The fuel cell still has advantages. Long term it should be better than an ICE for a range extender on a plug in. Continue to pursuit of it isn't the same as forcing commercialization now. The latter may even hinder the possible advances. After spending millions to billions on hydrogen infrastructure, how easily will a government shift to methanol or ammonia powered fuel cells?
     
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  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    This is a spirulous argument at best, but let's look honestly.
    In california a volt or i3+rex gets $9000, a leaf gets $10,000 + 3 zev credits + about $1000 in fueling subisidies, a mirai gets $5000 (maybe 8000 more with congressional lobbying) + 9 zev credits + $10,000 plus in fueling subsidies ($220M in subsidies, you decide how many cars to divide). The volt will put out about 2% of the harmful emissions as the average california car in its tailpipe + smoke stack. This is because of high emissions of over ten year old vehicles running around California.

    When looked at the average volt goes more electric miles than the average leaf per year. This is because it is still chosen on long trips. We don't know whether leaf drivers simply drive less miles per year or drive a different vehicle those extra miles.

    If we give a low figure of $2000 per zev credit, this makes the volt $9000, leaf $17,000, and mirai $33,000 in subsidies. I would agree that perhaps the volt gets too much, but the real problem is not volt versus leaf, its the huge push by carb with subsides for fuel cells now. I expect most of this refueling infrastructure will just sit there like the last time when the govenator said the cars would come. Maybe in 5 years the cars will be closer, or a decade, or 3 decades. Build it through 2017, do the test, but if they look as bad as they do now in 2017, its time to cut down the subsidies.

    As discussed Japanese tests are quite invalid for even Japanese drivers and completely invalid for american drivers. Using the Japanese test for fcv but epa estimates for bevs is completely screwed up. Trying to continue to push this garbage calculation as valid when it has been shown with real cars to be so far off the mark is ludicrous. The prius c gets the equivalent to 82 mpg on the JC08 test, should we say its much more efficient than the prius liftback that gets 50 mpg on the EPA because the number is bigger. No it is only slightly more efficient when both take the japanese test, and they come out dead even on the american test. When we use existing natural gas electricity compared to future hydrogen produced by best practices natural gas plug-ins and fcv are about the same. If we use electricity plug-ins are many times more efficient than fcv.
     
    #119 austingreen, Jan 5, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2015
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  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    See ? Even AG cannot be wrong all the time.