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Mirai production begins @ 3/day

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by fotomoto, Feb 25, 2015.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Just fyi for those thinking it will be easier getting around the country in a fuel cell vehicle take a look at tesla's network

    Supercharger | Tesla Motors
    hit 2016 for those available when the mirai is actually here. Now check out hydrogen station coverage.

    Station map | California Fuel Cell Partnership
    Not many blue ones (those that exist today) lots of yellow, but even with all the yellow even california has spotty coverage for fuel cells compared to tesla's coverage for its bevs in the state.

    Here is the fuel cell lobby's report in June 2012.
    http://cafcp.org/sites/files/A%20California%20Road%20Map%20June%202012%20(CaFCP%20technical%20version)_1.pdf

    Note we are far behind what they were predicting and asking for then. No reason to think their predictive power has gotten any better. Yes we could have breakthroughs and gas prices will inevitably rise, but that does not mean anybody but the government will pay for hydrogen stations. It being the california government in the US, means things will go slowly and over budget. In Japan it will cost even more but they may do it.
     
  2. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Haven't been following alts for 20 years. Who put out or was blabbing about putting out an H2 FCV 20 years ago? I only know of Clarity which is some 10ish yo super limited lease.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    no idea how i would get from mass to fla in an ev.
     
  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    plane
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    electric plane, 1500 miles. pretty sweet.:p
     
  6. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Boston, MA to Miami Beach, FL - Google Maps

    I'm not sure if it comes out the same, but 22h16m for car, 3:30 minutes for a plane. Yep a bev may take you an extra 10 hours if you are driving straight through, but... If you want to get there fast that flight is probably at least 15 hours shorter giving time for airport and renting a car.
     
  7. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we do it in 3 days in the hycam. va, ga and fla. 5-600 miles per day. stopping very 200 miles or so and looking for chargers would likely make it more of a road trip.:cool:
     
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  8. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    True but a single large nation allows for economies of scale, which help with reducing the cost of these types of vehicles. Oddly enough, it's fairly expensive for us to take the train (Via Rail. I don't know how AmTrak prices their fares). While it's definitely luxurious, it does cost the same as flying business class. (One example of a flight that's 1hr30m gate-to-gate, plus check-in and customs waiting times vs. the train that'll take almost a day [12-18 hours IIRC including stops])
     
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  9. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    It costs the same to fly or go by train here, but the shorter journies (comparatively) make the train quicker if you include checking in to fly. I think when you start talking 400+ miles trips, the plane starts to become quicker.

    It's not just gate to gate comparisons with trains/planes, but city center to city center as that's mostly where people, or business people will be heading. The train gets right into the city whereas you need a cab from the airport - adding further time and expense. Surprised Canada doesn't have high speed rail. You'd be ideal for it. Even the guys south of you have it to some degree!

    But we digress. Hydrogen is always going to be a difficult sell. It's not like you're saving money like people did with the first hybrids, or totally free fuel with BEVs. And in the US (and Canada to a lesser degree), the hydrogen fuel might be cheaper than petrol, but here it will end up the same once our Government tax it. The fall in oil prices only gives us a tempory reprieve before the Government slap on some tax to bring it back up to what it once was. That's why we're not all rushing out to buy SUVs this time.
     
  10. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    You'd think so but our population is spread out across the country and are clustered in several large cities. The two corridors where I think a high speed rail will work is between Toronto and Montreal, and Edmonton and Calgary. Those are two large cities in close (relatively for Canada) proximity to each other. Toronto-Montreal will work better because of existing transit. Edmonton-Calgary may not unless they connect fairly close to the city's light rail system to bring them downtown.
     
  11. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    To me, they are not different from Fox News. Politically motivated bias attacks.

    FCVs (and fuel infrastructure) are just rolling out. I don't think you were this critical of BEVs before SuperChargers were installed.

    I think fuel cell makes sense and has great potential. I am installing solar panels on my roof and I own a plugin. That doesn't make me bias toward EVs either. I try to stay tech neutral and not allow politics to cloud my stance.
     
    #51 usbseawolf2000, Mar 3, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2015
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I don't think they are politically motivated. They certainly have their own agenda borne out of being EV advicates.
    It is kind of right in the descriptor.
    FOX News on the other hand states they are a news network, even has a tag line about being fair and balanced, yet definately has a bias and apparent political slant.

    You may see them the same, I find the two dramatically different.
     
  13. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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  14. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Increasing ZEV credits for FCVs while decreasing them for BEVs when the FCVs started with greater amounts to begin with, and then changing the wording to disallow quick battery swaps from the fast refuel bonus, aren't political in nature?
    And in a year or two, when CARB decides to go with the higher pressure hydrogen tanks now used in Japan, how much will it cost to upgrade the stations being built now? Or if onboard natural gas or methanol reformers become comercially available? Japan has reasons beyond 'greenness' to push hydrogen. Those reasons don't apply to the US, and the government investing in commercialization of FCVs at this time doesn't make financial sense.

    Considering the number of FCVs that will be on the road, waiting to see and learn from Japan's adventure into them would cause no harm. Methanol or natural gas ones maybe ready by then. Which would be much easier and cheaper to do in the US.

    BEVs do not need the amounts of government funding to take a shot in the market place. A company wanting to sell one didn't need to get someone else to build stations and infrastructure. people already had in their house, and NEVS were available years before BEVs.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    How much of the demand is due to government sales?
     
  16. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Are you corporation neutral too?
     
  17. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Of course I am.

    I have praised Ford hybrids and plugins. Criticized Honda IMA but like their current 2 motor system. I was against Diesel mainly due to the emission and no other benefits.

    I have no stock in Toyota nor work for them. I am not even in the automotive industry. I am a Prius owner.

    I am for the clean, efficient and mass affordable (or has potential to be) tech. Toyota happens to be going toward the same goal. They sums it up nicely like this:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  18. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    $10,000 federal tax credit for FCV also expired. Political in nature?

    Battery swapping isn't refueling. The competition is not swapping gas tank or H2 tanks. It is not removing the bottleneck but mitigating it.

    Are you against unfairness of plugin tax incentive?

    How is BEVs with bigger battery size get the same amount as the Volt?

    Why does cleaner plugin hybrids get less incentive than the Volt?

    I try to stay away from politics and remain focus on the results (emission, efficiency, practicality and affordability).
     
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    You accused EV advocates of politically biased attacks. I am merely pointing out that their attacks were against political actions pushed for by FCV advocates. Who may have failed in extending the FCV tax credit, but got an increase in ZEV credits that may have a higher dollar value, and Ca to increase a tax to pay for hydrogen stations.
    I thought the point was to provide the user with a refueling turn around equivalent to liquid fuels now. The original law was tech neutral into how that was done. Tesla develops a battery swap possible in under 3 minutes, and now the law excludes that technology.
    This has been discussed elsewhere; the tax credit was to help spur development and sales of batteries for use in plugin vehicles. Emissions was never a consideration for it. One without a cut off on max amount may not have passed. Even if it was higher, how many more people could actually take advantage of it? Some couldn't get the full $7500 on their taxes.
     
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  20. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Actually the fuel cell lobby claimed the tax credit would provide cars on the road by now. Toyota committed to 3000 cars by 2017 knowing the credit would expire. Yes allowing tax credits to expire when it won't reduce oil use or pollution is not political. I doubt passing a new tax federal tax credit for hydrogen cars will get 1 more fcv produced than the bloated CARB mandates. CARB is giving what $220M in fueling + $5000/car + 9zev credits + hov stickers. That is more than federal and state for plug-ins. Those incentives are bringing these thousands of cars, the federal credits for cars that are unlikely to be even leased outside of california makes no sense. The federal government spends over $100M on fuel cell and hydrogen R&D every year. That is $100,000 for each of the 3000 cars toyota expects to lease in the US in the next 3 years. Isn't that enough?

    Umm what? The CARB rules were set by the fuel cell lobby about travel time. Battery swapping provides fuel faster than refueling with hydrogen. Tesla walked through the requirement, so the lobby had to change the rules. IMHO phevs are a better solution to california problems than hopeing people have a fuel cell at home, and anouther car for when you want to drive outside the small area where hydrogen is being supported. The change in CARB rules were entirely political.

    Why do these 3000 fuel cell vehicles deserve much higher incentives than plug-ins? Toyota wants to build them. The lobbiests at the california fuel cell partnership don't like plug-ins. Stop the anti-plug-in politics.

    Say the next gen prius phv comes out when there are 1500 fcv on california roads, and it costs $30,000 before incentives, gets 18 mile ev range then 55 mpg. What will do more for California's air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions? The 10,000 of the next gen phv a year, or 2000 mirai, tucson, and clarity a year. The mirai, tuscson, and clarity will get $5000 + 9 zev credits (probably worth $18,000) + hov sticker. That phev would probably get $4000 federal and $1500 state ($5500 tax credits) no sticker and no zev. Oh and if toyota wants to reduce oil use in the US, it will expand the next gen phv to states outside of CARB, and it will have much higher sales.

    Toyota has $60B in cash so it can afford to lose money on a lot of fuel cell vehicles. I don't understand why we need to write rules that favor its choice though.
     
    #60 austingreen, Mar 3, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2015
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