Hybrid Dashboard Summary - January 2015

I think a strong reason for the January drop off in plug-ins has to do with the requirement for waiting another year to get tax returns. Whereas this does not affect leases, it makes significantly more sense to purchase a plug-in with a big federal tax credit in December instead of January.

 

you'd be shocked how many buildings in Japan that have PV solar. And in addition to PV - unlike the USA, at least JAPAN is already heavily involved in pushing V2G - whereas USA utility companies fear it wrecking their business model . . . . just sayin ... they may well be getting more bang for their kW buck.
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and they've got the whole hydrogen economy to look forward to!

 

I not convinced that V2G does anything other than degrade expensive batteries in cars faster, thus devaluing the entire car faster. A cheaper, heavier battery of the same capacity could sit on unused land somewhere and provide the same function more cheaply, IMHO. Peak time for power is 2-6pm (plus or minus) in the summer.
This means for V2G to work you have to be plugged in at this time and not really be concerned about getting home...or have plenty of battery capacity to spare...everyday.
At my workplace we have 13 chargers and 40-50 EV/PHEVs that charge. (probably 10-15 of those cars only charge 2-4 times per week). Most of the cars are done charging and moved by 3-4 pm. Maybe only 5-8 cars are plugged in when V2G would make sense.

So why does V2G make sense?

• extra cost and circuitry and settings in each car
• extra cost for chargers
• shorter battery life
• good car + degraded battery = shorter life for metal, etc in car
• only a small fraction of cars can participate at any time
• makes sense to share chargers at work with multiple cars, not to have one charger per car

Mike

 

LA Times

 

^^^that must mean the CNCDA.org report on 2014 YTD CA sales is on-line! Hmm not yet

 

First hill is wrong, Japan is not pushing V2G, they are pushing Vehicles as back up generation. After all, after so many lost power in the tsunami toyota started using back up generator as a selling point. This includes options on the prius phv and the mirai. With the fragile Japanese grid more power shortages are likely until they get things fixed.

V2G is mainly experimented on in the US, Germany, and Denmark. The first implementations are likely to be military bases, where the back up function may be key snd costs are not as important as reliability.

Don't think about today, and forget those small battery phevs, think 10 years from now when more of the grid is wind, and the bevs at work have bigger batteries. Cars plug in, in the morning and when wind makes electricity cheap (windy day) the cars charge. If in the afternoon expensive power is needed the cars discharge to the min programmed point. The grid operator pays companies enough to put in chargers, and employees can opt in or opt out. Normally the grid operator knows approximate demand and renewables the night before.

Certainly the bay area is a good possible test place, and employers are likely to opt in to test it out. Google is heavily into wind, and Apple just committed to build solar to power all california operations, and get rid of the risks of paying PG&E.

 

Did I mis-speak? I'm not grasping the different meaning between Vehicles as back up generation vs V2G.
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The main vehicle hardware is probably the same, but the type of vehicles, user settings, and grid equipment are different. In Japan they are talking about using the battery, ice, or fuel cell for emergency or portable power V2S
Nichicon EV Power Station Now Comes With "Vehicle to Socket" Feature to Power Portable Equipment | Inside EVs

For V2S (vehicle to socket) it is necessary to plug directly in, or separate the car/house from the grid during a black out.

V2G requires a smart grid and user set parameters. Certainly it could be installed to also include V2S. The utility here is testing just the first part, having the owner set a battery level and charge by time, and the grid picks the time to charge the battery. That allows the grid operator to use surplus power at at night if its available or the cheapest powwr right before the battery needs to be charged. Other tests are doing the charge/discharge. The utility here is testing it by installing small batteries in a neighborhood with solar/plug-ins. That way they can test battery degradation from load cliping, without hurting the cars batteries. The batteries they are installing can be used in case of a power outage.

 

Interesting perspective from the Washington Hybrid Report of 15-Feb-2015, basically saying Prii sales were better in Jan-2015 than Jan-2014. Trying to recall if there was a weather explanation for last Jan lower sales. Bisco... is that you raising your hand from behind that snow drift?

 

Article in paper about gas prices and car buyer's choices. Article ends saying "...consumers don't always buy automobiles with their own best interests at heart, or in mind. ... "Buying a car is more an emotional purchase than a rational one" "The message (or automakers) is consistent: Make what people want. You have to capture them with emotion, not practicality."

Some times in Prius my thinking is like yeah, I'm getting 50+ MPG, but so what, it's dull.

Anyone seen the Lincoln MKZ hybrid commercials with McChaunehy (sp?) : "It's not about hugging trees ... it's about balance, etc ..."

Prius needs more balance, but so do many other alt vehicles.

Anyrate, back to emotional buying, Look at the price many are willing to pay for a Tesla, even with limited range, It looks and drives like madcakes, that's why people buy them.

So, would it be better for Toyota to sell 30,000 gen 4 Prius liftbacks globally per month at 55 MPG or
sell 50,000 globally a month at 50 MPG (this version being better looking inside/out, better handling, etc...)

 

Toyota Motor Sales Posts 13.3 Percent Increase in February

 

+1

I think when the gen IV prius is released things will reverse, but the gen III continues to fall.

ytd daily selling rate versus 2014
prius family down 5.1%
corolla up 12.6%
camry up 11.8%

Dealers appear to be selling more cars, but prii are shifting to their non-hybrid cars. Prius c and v, which are newer designs are up slightly over last year. The biggest drop was on the prius phv down 798 versus 1844.

 

Have to build a truly great car for it to sell strongly into end of generation. I don't see Prius liftback as a great car. Heck the new one won't even be here for a year

 

^^^
Wow big difference in Prius Sales? lol
Feb ’14 - 12,861
Feb ‘15 - 12,018

YTD ’14 - 25,066
YTD ’15 - 24,262
Sales numbers are good considering cheap gas/nice Corolla in the same showroom for less with midsize proportions;
Same cu ft Specs as the car next to it: Compare Side-by-Side

 

liftback + PiP Feb 2014 - 8,437 in US

liftback + PiP Feb 2015 - 7,467 US

they dropped a grand