Mirai production begins @ 3/day

Saw that landfill gas has been reclassified by EPA as cellulosic fuel for RIN credits. So there you go. Hate to ask, but where does the trash from CA go?

 

I have to agree with you. From what I have seen so far, many members here do have their agenda and create their propaganda. But this is a site with some traffic, so it is a consequence for such things to happen. There is a war happening and I would not be surprised if some freelancers earn money by spreading some propaganda here and there.
Toyota supports hydrogen and gets Japan govt money, because H2 is the only way for Japan to breath economically. If toyota succeeds Japan will also succeed. But is this good for US, Germany (countries stronger than IMF) plans for completely dominance? I don't think so.
So, toyota has more enemies than you think and stronger than just some automakers.

Also consider this. Do you remember the toyota sudden unintended acceleration incidents a few years ago and how these served for lunch on media? Let me tell you this... in europe, any recall related to toyota hybrids is always published on media. These days there is a recall about modern diesel toyota's (related to diesel-oil contamination in turbo and DIESEL RUNAWAY- much more lethal than the toyota SUA in US years ago) and there is not a single word about this on media.
I can think of a very good reason. There are scary stories on forums about diesel runaway cars of any make. Volvo, Opel, Fiat, Subaru, BMW, Mercedes,Mazda, VAG, Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Suzuki and the list is endless... Every time some claim that the problem has solved, but soon these claims disproved. They definately hide the problem because the boss of europe (Germans) have invested big money on diesels and do not want to burn diesels yet. So, there are tremendous political and economical interests behind many things you read. Because public perception matters for those weasels and hyenas.

 

Well I have a gen III prius, and have been on this site since 2009 when I was trying to decide to buy my prius. Previous to that I owned a Lexus. It is really strange that you as a fairly new member are accusing me of spreading anti-toyota propaganda.

I simply don't think fuel cell vehicles will sell in any kind of quantity in the US, and I don't like it when the fuel cell lobby puts out misleading statements. When Toyota does this I call them out. When you look at toyota's own figures 5700 fcv world wide in 2015-2017, hand built production, expects almost all of them to be leases, with over 60% of Japanese leases to government, you will have to agree that toyota today does not expect a large number of vehicles for a long long time. Toyota and Honda think they will have 6000 fcv on the road in Japan by 2020. They only promise tens of thousands a year some time in the 2020s and say this fuel cell revolution may take 100 years. I don't disagree now, I just don't think fcv will likely do much in the US for the next decade other than take government money.

Now Toyota seems to not want to build plug-ins, and don't think they are profitable for them. That is all well and good. I expect world wide plug-in sales in that same period 2015-2017 to exceed 700,000.
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
That will drive down battery costs. I hope toyota builds a much improved prius phv, and other plug-in cars, and stops the anti-EV Lexus advertising. It is the anti-plug-in press releases and advertising that I don't like and that is all part of their lobbying for fuel cell subsidies.

If you think that to be a member of the forum you have to believe everything toyota says is good, that is not how I take it. We are a diverse group of people that own prii.

 

To add to what Austin said.
Many of us that have been around for years, have fought misinformation, including outright lies.
I despised the "Hummer is more environmentally clean than the Prius" as well as the belittling comments from various CEOs (especially Bob Lutz).
Misconceptions ran wild and some still exist.

I will not, however, put up with Toyota using the same tactics.
I will call out bad arguments made by anyone.
It is just that at one time, Toyota made very few, if any. Lately they seem to have decided to, so I call them on it.

 

As Ausringreen pointed out, these NG fleets are mostly trucks. Maybe a few Civics, but I suspect they are outnumbered by the Crown Vics that were available to fleets.

Natural gas lowers fuel costs, improves the vehicle emissions, and can likely be piped directly to the fleet's station. Maybe FCVs have slight benefit in total emissions, but the costs keep businesses away from it. Right now, fuel cells are only practical over NG in an ICE for enclosed spaces where even the NG emissions can become a problem, like forklifts.

In the future, maybe FCV's will be possible for fleets. Probably around the time a fuel cell becomes practical for a range extender. A plugin FCV wouldn't be as tied to hydrogen stations, which would make them easier to spread out in the early stages of adoption, I don't see commercial one happening until we move to metal hydrides or methanol to charge them. A high pressure hydrogen tank, and even a NG one, would be difficult to package with the battery in a plugin.

 

The stuff that isn't recycled goes into land fills. I'm not sure of the current price of biogas, but it was around $13/MMbtus a couple of years ago in southern california versus $2.81 for natural gas nationwide today.
SoCalGas - Biogas and Biomethane

But if you divide out biogas is only about $1.50 for a gallon of gasoline equivelent, natural gas is about $0.33. Say your fuel cell vehicle used about half the hydrogen as a cng uses natural gas, the cost of biogas would only be $3.00 for the equivalent of 2 kg of hydrogen. Of course stations need extra equipment to remove water and to compress, they need to charge taxes and credit card fees, and don't have much volume so they end up charging $2.20 per gallon equivalent here and $2.40 in LA, a company with a fleet would only have costs of less than $1 ($0.89 in the piece I quoted earlier). Change it to biogas and that company fleet would probably cost $2.50/gallon as the biogas would need to be delivered without subsidies. With the subsidies stations in california put out compressed biogas at the same price as CNG. 40 Biogas Fuel Stations Open in California

You would have to get renewable 10,000 psi hydrogen down to $5/kg to have equivalent fleet fuel prices if the fuel is going to cost the same, the subsidized price is estimated to be around double that with much higher subsidies. There are 108 (40 renewable) cng stations in california today and 1500 in the nation, there may be 68 public hydrogen stations in California in 2017, and maybe 75 in the nation. I can't see a non-government fleet going hydrogen in the US.

 

If you look at the "purpose" of this website stated at the bottom of the page, it is said to be the "go-to spot for Prius, Hybrid, and EV discussion"....To the extent that Toyota has been less supportive of EV in the last several years, I guess that sets up some natural philosphical conflict with-in this on-line community. Also Congress is pushing Plug_ins with its policies, and many states are too.

 

Social media management on the internet, can get paid to blog, comment positive or negative, engage with customers and monitor websites.

 

Sounds crazy but they must also be supressing all the car forums as well. I've done a search and not found anything at all, or at least nothing from Europe of note. If it were a big problem and conspiracy, then surely people would be complaining?

Recalls unfortunately aren't as comprehensive over here as they are in the US with German manufacturers here not recalling cars that they would otherwise recall in the US, but Toyota do and their UK owners seem to prefer this. But recalls are still taken seriously including the significant brake problems that Suzuki have been having, where their latest cars have been pulled from the road and owners informed not to drive them and have them collected (presumably at great expense to Suzuki);

BBC News - Suzuki: Celerio brake failure forces recalls in four countries

"Sales in the UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand have been suspended and owners told not to drive the cars."

Recalls are advertised here, including many models not even officially sold in the UK;

BBC News - Takata airbag recall expands to 7.8m US cars
Jaguar Land Rover recalls 104,000 cars in US | Business | The Guardian
BBC News - Ford recalls 850,000 cars with airbag fault
Thousands of Lexus cars recalled over faulty fuel pipes - Telegraph
Mercedes C-Class recall over steering problem | Auto Express

And even the German manufacturers recall cars contrary to your report;
Volkswagen recall: German car giant orders worldwide recall of 2.6MILLION vehicles over technical problems - Mirror Online

 

Austingreen and I often see the same Toyota and natural world. Sometimes he is a little more judgmental, perhaps more excitable than I would choose. Often our differences come down to a question of whether Toyota made a decision from malice, ignorance, or a different world view that we don't see.

Toyota is not always perfect but they often do the right thing eventually. In the Camry, Corolla, and Prius, they've done wonderful work. Then there is the Venza.

Calling Austingreen a 'propagandist' is a bridge to far. Excitable, yes, but no malice that I've seen any more than many others.

Bob Wilson

 

Mirai is not even on US roads, yet a group here has already created a negative climate about Mirai. We know nothing about this technology, but you already do your best to downgrade it. The point is that toyota clearly stated that they believe in fuel cells and will give their best efforts to bring FC to mass-market like they did with hybrids. Not only that, but when they introduced prius (which means to go before), they already had their minds to fuel cells. For those who don't get it : To go before ----> the future(Mirai).
I remember that NHW10 never exported in US. It wasn't hand built, yet toyota sold only 300 of those in 1997. It took toyota about 18 years to bring hybrid-tech to mass-market in a clear superior competitive form (maybe I am wrong but It seems that this is going to happen with current gen hybrids in a few months). But in the early days of prius, people had a hard time to understand how the hybrid concept works. Some also (with dishonest intentions) were broadcasting TV shows shooting bullets at prius chassis. But toyota proved everyone wrong, because today, I don't see anyone of those badmouthing about the expensive, environment-nightmare, useless hybrid tech, used to be their rhetoric once. But, what I see is the same discredit pattern happening again with the derivative of prius (MIRAI).
Its funny, because NHW10 was not better than what Mirai is now, but what is not funny at all, is the fact that you already know this detail. This is a serious sign that you have no respect for prius. Which leads me to believe that some have dishonest intentions in this forum.

Now, I would like to tell you first,
a few things about those poor people that got killed in toyota SUA incidents. These people might have been saved if the driver would have turned off the ignition key. But SUA incidents are very scary and people lose self-control or its too late to respond in high dense or dangerous road areas. Memorize this before we continue.

and then,
a few things about diesel runaway. There are many causes for this to happen and any diesel engine is prone regardless of make or tech. One of them is to have fuel on turbo. In this case the engine self- feeding from turbo. It redline -races at WOT without the need of the throttle to provide fuel from fuel tank. So, even if you turn off the ignition key, nothing will happen and you will lose valuable time to escape from the death ride. Driver not only must retain his self-control, but should be skilled to maneuver his car before he has it stopped.
Europe is full of these diesels and based on the memorizing tip from above, I am NOT wondering if someone has been killed from DR, but how many have been killed.

And don't try to fool me. I referred in the toyota diesel runaway recall that media never published. Instead they published a toyota recall for toyota hybrids. Media choose which recalls to publish and TV never refers on recalls generally anymore. Do you remember when TV channels were broadcasting the everyday hollywood scale TV serial of the toyota-SUA drama a few years ago? I dare to ask, where is the TV series-drama for the toyota diesel runaway? Don't bother to answer. There is no motivation for such film production.

 

I'm sorry but unless you have been living under a rock or aren't interested in the tech, you should understand a great deal about the technology.
Read this to start, and if you want to get more technical, I'll send you more. Toyota Mirai Reviews - Toyota Mirai Price, Photos, and Specs - Car and Driver

I guess you are accusing me of down grading the technology when I quote toyota's prices, performance figures, and projected sales, and projected cost of hydrogen. Look at what they are saying today. Ignore that crap they were pushing last year or in 2009. It has changed, as many of us predicted. I guess you can acuse me of not believing the hype machine, but toyota's current figures for the near term are close to what us bad people were saying. Rick Wagoner was responsible for a lot of the early fuel cell hype, and attacks on plug-ins, and this seemed to help bankrupt GM ($2.5B spent on fuel cells under investment at the time on plug-ins and hybrids). Toyota has a lot of cash, so it can afford to lose billions on fuel cells.

Yep that is what they said. They also agreed in 2003 that we would have 25,000 fcv on california roads by now. When that goal changed they promised 53,000 by 2017. They have said batteries are too expensive, but in reality instead of hitting their promised $50,000 SUV (2009) delivered by 2015, it morphed into something they could make a 4 seater car with less internal space than a corolla with similar performance, For $48,000 after tax credits. Toyota has said at that price they lose money on each one. It is extremely similar to the current honda clarity, but instead of leasing hundreds, toyota is committed to lease 3000 in the US between now and 2017. This happens to be the carb compliance rate. It doesn't get the 68 mpge that toyota claimed for the fchv-adv (there highlander based test vehicle), but will likely get 65 miles/kg, barely better than we expect for the gen IV prius that also will be released in the US at the same time.

Toyota has been showing off their fuel cell vehicles since the nineteen hundred and nineties.

Toyota corporate is now talking decades or even a hundred years for the fuel cell vehicle to really take off. Its the infrastructure and cost.
The Biggest Problem With The Toyota Mirai? It's Boring - Gas 2
Ask yourself this. Do you believe the fuel cell lobby's hype. That these things are more likely go mass market than plug-ins, so they need much higher subsidies per car? Last year plug-ins sold over 300,000 world wide. Toyota's own public figures about what they plan to produce and sell (non-hype there) don't even make the mirai look as if it will be as popular as the bmw i8, a 4 seat plug-in. The tesla model S, Nisan leaf, and chevy volt all sell in much higher quantiries today than toyota thinks their fuel cells will really sell in the early 2020s.

Now Toyota had repeated that no one could make a 300 mile BEV (old epa), then when tesla did it said it would be a tiny niche. Tesla sold 31,000 of cars in that tiny niche and are working on a much more mainstream model. They even have a working battery swap station that can change batteries faster than fuel cell cars can refuel. In the short term don't believe the hype that the world is not ready for plug-ins but people really want a car that works like a gasoline car, but costs a lot more, with many fewer places to fill up.

 

Mirai is not only heavy and expensive but also limited to 4 seats like the Volt.

Toyota is not rolling Mirai out as a mass production "Prius killer" like the Volt. I said I would criticize Mirai if it isn't as clean as a regular Prius. From what we've seen, everything points to cleaner than the Prius from well to wheel emission.

Mirai runs on 100% domestic fuel and people forget about that. It seemed it was a big selling point for Volt. I don't see the same people rallying behind Mirai for the same reason.

 

Neither you nor Austin Green own a plugin. Yet, you guys are pushing plugins driven by political reasons, nothing from car buyer/owner perspective.

If you guy truly believe in plugins, put your money where your mouth is.

I don't intend to come off as personal attack. I am just stating my observation. Posts from you guys seem like you are participating in a politics forum, not on car owners' forum. I don't think I have seen a post that helps other owners, a tip to improve MPG, how to do maintenance, etc. All you guys do is promote plugins and put a negative light on everything Toyota does.

 

Not only the cost but also the refuel speed and life cycle emission of BEV does not meet their customer expectations.

Mirai does meet those expectation except the interior space and the cost. That's why they are doing the limited launch.

 

Ah, NHW10 and its tweaked version NHW11 which I bought when they first rolled off the boat in 2000. I was very enthusiastic about that car and about its potential for incremental refinement. It was much cheaper than the Mirai and had a much more obvious potential for success without any need for new infrastructure. I still own an awesome red 2004 NHW20 (XW20).

All the glowing things you said about Toyota and fuel cells could have been said about GM and their huge investment in fuel cells over many years.They even talked in 2007 about having a fuel cell range extender option for the Chevy Volt but they eventually and wisely switched their near-term focus away from commercializing FC passenger cars in North America.

I do see parallels between Toyota's Mirai effort and hybrid technology. Unfortunately, the connection I see is with GM's 2-mode SUV and pickup effort. High priced, low volume, and little apparent real customer interest (although 2-mode has been very successful in transit busses from 2003 all the way to today). The underlying technology is fine. It's just the wrong timing, wrong market, and the targeted ordinary customer base doesn't want it.

I think I'm reasonably informed about car news mostly from Internet surfing but also some occassional television news. I really haven't seen anything about new or unusual problems with diesel runaways. I'll have to look into that. But until then, I can't help thinking you are hyping fear, uncertainly, and doubt about diesels the way you accuse others of doing with early hybrid cars and now fuel cells.

 

careful .... someone will label you as having an agenda ....
that word - it's great for when there is no real rebuttal
.

 

Congratulations on interest in the Prius even if your ride is "Other Non-hybrid." Curiosity is always welcome.

Mirai is not even on US roads, yet a group here has already created a negative climate about Mirai. We know nothing about this technology, but you already do your best to downgrade it.

Actually this 'fuel cell' infatuation dates back to the death of the Partnership for Next Generation Vehicle program that was defunded in 2002 for fuel-cells. The GM Precept was a diesel version of the Volt proposed in 2000 when Toyota was just bringing the earliest Prius to market. Then there was the EV1, another technology delayed 12 years because of the fuel-cell (I call fool-cell) nonsense that abandoned sensible, conservative engineering for what remains 'all hat but no cattle.'

. . . The point is that toyota clearly stated that they believe in fuel cells and will give their best efforts to bring FC to mass-market like they did with hybrids. Not only that, but when they introduced prius (which means to go before), they already had their minds to fuel cells. For those who don't get it : To go before ----> the future(Mirai).

I am OK with engineering prototypes and pre-production models because they often teach (re reteach) valuable lessons. In this case, a practical review of fundamental chemistry and economics. I would love to be proved wrong but I still see hydrogen being the wrong fuel because it has such difficult physical properties.

Now if a hydrogen converter is used so a different hydrogen compound could be used, I would be perfectly OK. I'm fond of ammonia, NH{3} or methanol, CH{3}OH. Both are excellent hydrogen sources with more benign physical properties than hydrogen.

. . . I remember that NHW10 never exported in US. It wasn't hand built, yet toyota sold only 300 of those in 1997. It took toyota about 18 years to bring hybrid-tech to mass-market in a clear superior competitive form (maybe I am wrong but It seems that this is going to happen with current gen hybrids in a few months). But in the early days of prius, people had a hard time to understand how the hybrid concept works.

In 2001, my wife and I rented a Prius but decided to buy a $5,000 cheaper Echo for her 'going for groceries' car. Ten years later, we sold the Echo for $3,000 with 30,000 miles to a co-worker who continues to commute with it instead of his little Toyota pickup. A car only getting 3,000 miles of use per year, the operational cost doesn't matter.

In 2005, I did a 'trade study' between the Prius and Civic hybrid. The key determinants:

• City vs Highway MPG - the Prius had better city performance which meant the hybrid system was exploiting the lower drag losses better than the Civic.
• Motor power - the Prius had higher motor power than the Civic which meant it could avoid using the gas engine

In September, an accident totaled our 1991 Camry and I bought a used, 2003 Prius. My first 200 mile segment gave 39 MPG versus the 45 MPG EPA rating. Although I briefly thought about returning the car, subsequent segments returned 52 MPG at an acceptable 65 mph.

It took years to understand the brilliance of the Prius and even now, the cold weather helps me experiment with cold weather operation. But Prius studies have re-enforced engineering basics so I can address 'dead ends' and avoid:

• diesels
• two-modes
• IMA
• 'magic driving'

. . . Some also (with dishonest intentions) were broadcasting TV shows shooting bullets at prius chassis. But toyota proved everyone wrong, because today, I don't see anyone of those badmouthing about the expensive, environment-nightmare, useless hybrid tech, used to be their rhetoric once. But, what I see is the same discredit pattern happening again with the derivative of prius (MIRAI).

It is not a derivative but just another electric car with a primary battery.

Its funny, because NHW10 was not better than what Mirai is now, but what is not funny at all, is the fact that you already know this detail. This is a serious sign that you have no respect for prius. Which leads me to believe that some have dishonest intentions in this forum.

Perhaps you might buy a Prius and by your own logic and wallet that you have no "dishonest intentions in this forum."

Now, I would like to tell you first,
a few things about those poor people that got killed in toyota SUA incidents. These people might have been saved if the driver would have turned off the ignition key. But SUA incidents are very scary and people lose self-control or its too late to respond in high dense or dangerous road areas. Memorize this before we continue.

In September 2009, folks in this forum throughly investigated the Saylor accident. When you get a chance, you might use the PriusChat search function to read our discussions. We also investigated the 'brake pause' that was fixed with a software patch. You don't know us but there is a lot of history in the archives.

and then,
a few things about diesel runaway. There are many causes for this to happen and any diesel engine is prone regardless of make or tech. One of them is to have fuel on turbo. In this case the engine self- feeding from turbo. It redline -races at WOT without the need of the throttle to provide fuel from fuel tank. So, even if you turn off the ignition key, nothing will happen and you will lose valuable time to escape from the death ride. Driver not only must retain his self-control, but should be skilled to maneuver his car before he has it stopped.
Europe is full of these diesels and based on the memorizing tip from above, I am NOT wondering if someone has been killed from DR, but how many have been killed.

And don't try to fool me. I referred in the toyota diesel runaway recall that media never published. Instead they published a toyota recall for toyota hybrids. Media choose which recalls to publish and TV never refers on recalls generally anymore. Do you remember when TV channels were broadcasting the everyday hollywood scale TV serial of the toyota-SUA drama a few years ago? I dare to ask, where is the TV series-drama for the toyota diesel runaway? Don't bother to answer. There is no motivation for such film production.

Diesel run-away has been a known problem for years although my first understanding was leaky intake valves and cylinder rings were some of the earliest documented sources. Turbo-charger, oil leaks works just as well leading to a runaway unless the intake throttle plate can make an air-tight seal or flood the intake with CO{2}.

Having basic engineering skills, I selected a used Prius for our first. Having the car gave me a test article to more fully investigate the technology and learn what works and doesn't. Used Prius are a good way to learn the technology and then you'll be in a better position to offer useful insights instead of projecting malice.

Bob Wilson

 

I'm not sure which customers were surveyed on refuel speed or lifecycle emissions. They may have been the same folks that liked the EQ short range bev. It seems those 3000 first leases in california may have higher life cycle emissions for their car and home/apartment than buying a plug-ins and renewable electricity. It would be interesting to see the survey. We know both from independent surveys, and ones from the car companies that owners of prius phv, leaf, and volt want more electric range, and that tesla buyers are satisfied. Surveyed plug-in owners like being able to plug-in and use gas station less frequenly. We should get an update to this soon. February 2014 Survey Report | CSE
Dealership Survey | Electric Cars - Consumer Reports News
Toyota dealers are not the best source of plug-in information.

One of the biggest limiting factor for the mirai as stated by toyota is refueling infrastructure. So yes toyota thinks refueling is a huge problem for adoptions, along with the high cost of hydrogen and the high cost of cars.

How Many Hydrogen Cars For Northeast U.S.? 10,000 In 10 Years, Plan Says

Toyota has stated they expect california's fuel cell fueling capacity at 10,000 in 2017 - which seems reasonable, and why they only expect to lease 3000 fcv in the US in next 3 years. They only expect honda and toyota to lease 6000 cars in Japan by 2020. Toyota assumes that fcv leasers will want to be within 6 minutes of a hydrogen station, or would have to drive too far out of the way for the fcv to be practical.

You could be one of the 10,800 hand raisers in the North East to buy or lease a fuel cell vehicle. Toyota or other companies an overcome the technical challenges, but its not going to happen in the near term.

 

The Consumer Reports owners survey gave the Model S a satisfaction ("would buy again") score of 99 (or was it 98) out of 100. The Volt initially got 90-92 for 2-3 years (I think) but it has now slipped a bit since it is less novel. The Prius also scored very high for several years when it was newer. I'd say electrified cars are meeting customer expectations very well.

The cheaper crop of 60-80 mile cars have obvious limitations for non-local travel but the price drops for 200+ mile cars appears to be on a fast track in the next few years.