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Arctic Sea ice 2015

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Mar 27, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Collection of data sources:


    [​IMG]
    Source: Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

    When we have a lot of cold weather in the middle latitudes, I'm pretty sure the pole had an influx of warm air, inhibiting ice formation. Of course, this is just weather gradually nudging the Arctic climate to longer, sailing days this summer.

    Antarctica has also shown some interesting trends:
    S_02_trnd.png
    The thinning sea ice on the left and lower quadrant risks uncorking the glaciers, increasing sea level. The ice growth away from the coast has no effect because it floats. In effect the ice formation offsets the sea water of equal volume. But there are two curious thinning areas on the upper-right and a little spot on the right. Again, the risks are unblocking glaciers so land-ice becomes new sea ice. But this is a direct contribution of sea level and the thermal effects are much larger.

    As water warms, it expands. My understanding is this 2-3 times the effect on sea level as glaciers and land-ice melt. Stay tuned, it only gets better.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Mar 27, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2015
  2. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  3. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I prefer NOAA or NASA which reported the story but without as much hype. They are actually are governmental organizations, not simply one that takes the logo of one that provides some funding.
    NOAA Arctic Theme Page - A Comprehensive Arctic Resource
    2015 Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Annual Extent Is Lowest On Record | NASA

    It seems this was mainly an indication of 2014's weather but the temperature and percipitation record is probably a better indicator.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Concerning 'uncorking glaciers' we have this:

    Published Online March 26 2015
    Science DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa0940
    Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating
    Fernando S. Paolo1,*, Helen A. Fricker1, Laurie Padman2

    Indicating significant increases during satellite observation era (not the first such)

    Concerning whether all the agencies reporting polar-ice could be in cahoots and miss reporting, that would be an opportunity for a completely independent analysis of the images. Such a finding would be of great interest.

    I have suggested the same for global air T records in the past, because the originals are available (not always for free). But nobody seems to have found the time. Sigh.
     
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  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  8. Blizzard_Persona

    Blizzard_Persona Senior Member

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    I didn't realize Auatralia got that chilly??:rolleyes::LOL::cool::)
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    You might read the source cited:
    Source: Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
    [​IMG]
    Please notice, that the sea ice extent in this plot is calculated with the coastal zones masked out. To see the absolute extent, go to this page.

    So let's see what Mojo omitted (again):
    [​IMG]

    Thank you again for showing another "lie by omission" of your source who claimed,"Arctic sea ice continues its surge." Your source omitted the qualification by Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut that the first chart omits coastal ice near the land. This is the ice that blocks or slows glacier migration into the sea.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Thanks to Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut's Northern Hemisphere Ice chart, I blew-up the winter peak period and added two horizontal lines:
    [​IMG]
    • top orange line - the highest total ice seen in 2015 as of March 28, 2015.
    • lower orange line - the lowest total ice seen local peak ice events
    The data suggests 2015 will have similar metrics to 2011, a previous low. If I were a shipping company, I'd be planning an Arctic passage in about six months.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #10 bwilson4web, Mar 29, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2015
  11. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    "The total area of sea ice is the sum of First Year Ice (FYI), Multi Year Ice (MYI) and the area of ambiguous ice types, from the OSISAF ice type product. However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure. In late 2012 sea ice climatology and anomaly data will be available here. "
    Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Gosh, at least you are going to source and not the advocacy. But you might be more accurate by including everything:

    Source: Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
    [​IMG]
    The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.

    Once upon a time, they had a problem with masking out the coastal areas. That is no longer accurate which is why they call it "The old plot ..."

    What is fascinating is two sources with similar but not identical data:
    [​IMG]

    • Left chart from the Danish site and right chart from National Snow and Ice Data Center
    • X and Y axis stretched to be identical scale
    • Both show a double-hump with a gradual rise at the current data
    • Magnitude change, the orange lines, are identical separation
    My dear Mojo, the left chart is from your source and the right chart from those you called 'liars.' Yet they both show very similar data. The change magnitude is the same and time duration the same. That there is an offset of ~5% gives credibility that these are independent metrics and analysis. Both are accurate and you have a false witness post to edit. <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson



     
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  13. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Your plot is a day older than mine.We will see.
    Why they dont update the one you claim is more useful is a puzzle.




     

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  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Well, that plot has now caught up, and I see. Mar 29 shows 14.421 Mkm^2, the same as Mar 28. The March high so far of 14.453 on the 26th is still below the 14.536 shown for Feb 25.

    Another dataset, which NSIDC points to at sidads.colorado.edu, shows slightly different numbers on the different days, but the same overall pattern. Mar 29 shows 14.36, a bit below the March peak so far, which is below that February peak of 14.595 on the 22nd.

    Now what?
     
    #14 fuzzy1, Mar 30, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2015
  15. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Read post #2 it actually includes both plots absolute and no coast .Bobs post #9 "lie by omission"is pointless and meaningless.

    Post #6 refers to an increase in the "no coast" plot.Perfectly valid as the absolute plot isnt up to date until the next day.Thats not a "lie by omission".
     
    #15 mojo, Mar 30, 2015
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2015
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I understand that some people may not understand the importance of these words:
    • Graph #1 - Please notice, that the sea ice extent in this plot is calculated with the coastal zones masked out. To see the absolute extent, go to this page.
    • Graph #2 - The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while.
    Both graphs (the links work) describe sea ice in the Northern hemisphere in 2015. 'Graph #1' has a peak, ~11 mill. km2 and Graph #2 ~13 mill. km2. The difference is ~2 mill. km2 found in the coastal areas and rooted to the land or an error of about 2/13 ~= 15%.

    It is important not to toss or post the term "lie" too easily when it may be simple ignorance. Once "lie", a piece of verbal monkey scat, is thrown, the author should not be surprised if it is tossed back with unambiguous facts and data.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Mr. STFU writes:
    Your 'Big Lie' post #2 and 'BS' post #6 were pointlessly harsh overreactions to a release saying:
    "Arctic sea ice extent appeared to have reached its annual maximum extent, ... This year’s maximum extent not only occurred early; it is also the lowest in the satellite record. However, a late season surge in ice growth is still possible. NSIDC will post a detailed analysis of the 2014 to 2015 winter sea ice conditions in early April." [emphasis added]
    The 'lie by omission' was for leaving out the plot with larger values and consistent with the OP article, about the March surge not surpassing the apparent February peak, not for the one day delay.
    As for that delay, you said "We will see." Well, two days later, I now see - that chart shows the March surge appearing to end without surpassing Feb.
    Your first link also leads to this disclaimer:
    "The total sea ice extent can differ slightly from other sea ice extent estimates. Possible differences between this sea ice extent estimate and others are most likely caused by differences in algorithms and definitions.
    Burrowing into the NSIDC's data links, I found that from their figures, this year's March surge did not catch up to the February peak, and has already turned down. (The larger DMI plot shows the same.) So by their particular algorithms and definitions, the apparent record in February still holds. Your strident 'BS' overreaction remains unnecessary.

    Sorting through their historic satellite daily records, I extracted these annual peaks, sorted from low to high (sorry for the lousy formatting, this is in the form YYYY MM DD 10^6 sq km):
    2015 2 22 14.595
    2011 3 7 14.704
    2006 3 11 14.777
    2007 3 10 14.842
    2005 3 9 14.993
    2014 3 20 15.007
    2009 3 2 15.195
    2013 3 14 15.196
    2004 3 10 15.3
    2012 3 18 15.307
    2010 3 31 15.351
    2008 2 27 15.354
    1995 3 31 15.384
    1996 2 21 15.484
    2000 3 3 15.498
    1992 3 12 15.576
    2002 3 9 15.624
    1999 3 30 15.627
    2003 3 20 15.629
    1991 2 25 15.647
    1997 3 20 15.684
    2001 3 4 15.742
    1989 3 6 15.766
    1994 2 21 15.77
    1981 3 14 15.801
    1984 3 18 15.809
    1993 3 13 16.048
    1998 2 25 16.07
    1986 3 10 16.158
    1985 3 17 16.163
    1990 3 12 16.249
    1987 2 21 16.293
    1980 3 5 16.302
    1988 3 10 16.309
    1982 2 27 16.325
    1983 3 14 16.412
    1979 3 1 16.635

    As can be easily seen, by their particular algorithms and definitions, 2015 is still on track to setting a new low record. Note also that the 12 most recent years are also the 12 lowest years. Just beware that different agencies use different algorithms and definitions, thus showing somewhat different results. Mojo normal pattern is to call 'BS' on whichever shows a new record low.
     
    #17 fuzzy1, Mar 31, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2015
  18. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Why is it so easy for you to disregard this,from the coastal zones blocked plot?
    "However, the total estimated ice area is underestimated due to unclassified coastal regions where mixed land/sea pixels confuse the applied ice type algorithm. The shown sea ice extent values are therefore recommended be used qualitatively in relation to ice extent values from other years shown in the figure."
     
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Why is it so hard for you to see that when comparing the measurements from this year to past years, all of which aren't measuring the coastal regions, that the ice area for the last 10 years is less than any in the 1990's, and except for 1993 and 1994, the 2000's and 1990's have been less than the 1980's.

    That is a qualitative comparison of peak arctic ice area that has been measured by the same method.

    The measured values are smaller than actual, but the coastal ice area will only change a great degree between years if there has been a change to the coastlines. There is a maximum amount of ice area that those coastal regions can add to the total. Adding that maximum to all the totals won't change the fact that the total arctic sea ice area per year is getting smaller over time.
     
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Close but no cigar:
    Source: Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

    Polar heating, predicted by many climate models, is a leading indicator. It is also a feedback mechanism because water, dirt, and 'dirty ice' absorb more solar heat than sea ice, snow fields, and clean ice.

    The CO{2} effect deniers should hop on the polar melt because it gives them an alternate excuse why CO{2} does not matter . . . begging the question of what started it. <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson
     
    #20 bwilson4web, Apr 9, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2015