California drought

I give big points to fuzzy1 just above. There are things going on now, that could be improved by deft calls to potential donors. Go after them, take their money, but do not bend over backwards to implicate +CO2. It might only reduce your cash flow.

We are not done talking about California this year (fires). Current drought has not grown beyond paleo, assumming that those are accurate.. The current 'people-thing' in California is entirely novel though. Make the water (pricing and) supply syste work, before wondering if the next drought will be worse.

It appears that mojo aspires to string Bob up, based on this year's arctic sea traffic. Maybe, way long in the future, we will learn here at PC that one year ain't no thang.

 

Well these guys seem to think that 1976 was different, and the 2013 most closely resembles 1948, but more severe (due to global warming?). Point is you cannot make an assumption that mega-droughts and current drought of the same origin, it would be like giving someone Ebola and then claiming Medieval Bubonic Plague as an evidence.
A comparison of California's extreme 2013 dry spell to the 1976-1977 drought : California Weather Blog

 

I'm calm about this since the 1990s series of "100 year floods" along the Mississippi. One of the things Bill Clinton's FEMA did was to encourage those living in traditional flood plains to relocate. There comes a time when CO{2} forced global warming doesn't have to wait for a "crisis d'jour." We used to say,'Pay me now, or pay me later.'

Bob Wilson

 

A good thing, mitigation isn't cheap and California is again learning the way.

Bob Wilson

 

I am amused that 'liar-liar' mojo picks up Austin's 900 year old, "megadrought" and turns the clock forward. Both are 'jumping to a conclusion' that nothing has change in the face of current facts and data.

Sea level remains something of interest and Jason-2 has data available within 10 days, early June:

• El Nino is clearly shown in the higher levels west of South America.
• Along the west coast of North and South America, the water levels are again higher, what warm water does.
• Curious upwelling of cold water east of the Philippines just a few degrees north of the El Nino.
• That circular pattern east of South America is interesting because it was also evident in the 1990 SST.

Bob Wilson

 

It's like a crew of forest firefighters being consumed while they argue over whether it was lighting or an arsonist who started the fire.

One surprise I found out today might explain why Florida has better water management than the average state. It is legally prohibited for each (of the five) Florida water management districts to supply water to another district. Each district was created with the responsibility of being sustainable. Each district then regulates the various municipalities in their districts on how much water they are limited in taking from the aquifer and rivers. Need more water than that, then start making desal plants or make the water you have go farther. Amazingly, each municipality is forced to figure out how to make their water allocation stay within district limits. I was further surprised to find out that Clearwater has since built two successive and successful Reverse Osmosis plants to supply the cities needs. Also Tarpon Springs, Dunedin and Oldsmar have built their own RO desal facilities. Wow. The water management system looks like it actually works

 

Well put:

There is a technical part of climate change based upon the facts and data. As I've gotten more exposure, I come up with my own areas of interest and that is how science and technology works. But we also have to deal with those who like some high-school students never really understood what is going on. Too often their volume was inversely proportional to their technical skills . . . so we have to live with the noise.

A while back, I asked 'how long is a climate' versus weather and I remember the number '30 years' being offered. So let's play a numerology game:

• 2015 - 1850 ~= 165 years of temperature and modern weather measurements
• 2015 - 1890 ~= 105 years since the first greenhouse warming model proposed
  
• 2015 - 1965 ~= 50 years of satellite observations, world wide
• 2012 - 2015 ~= 3 years of current, regional, California drought, ~10% of a climate interval

So I'm sanguine about what is going on yet mean enough to toy with the deniers.

Bob Wilson

 

This is certainly good news!

Arctic sailings have been going on for a while with recent traffic records at: NSR - Transit Statistics | Northern Sea Route Information Office

• 2011 - 41 passages
  
• 2012 - 46 passages, 1,261,545 tons cargo
  
• 2013 - 71 passages, 1,355,897 tons cargo
  
• 2014 - 52 passages

So have you stopped trying to 'brainwash' and 'admit you are wrong' since 2011?

Facts and data are not your friends 'liar-liar' mojo. Nor apparently is logic.

Bob Wilson

 

When you mix the worthwhile efforts to understand climate interactions while simultaneously shadow boxing with "deniers" it becomes problematic. Considering your POV as being purely "scientific" is compromised by the desire to poke a stick at those disagreeing. You do not need to worry about the denialist. They will win a couple of legislative victories here and there but will eventually become "noise" from a historical viewpoint. The real educational problem is not "educating" deniers but educating the 30% of the population that determines the future as policy makers, environmental experts, economics experts, and wise citizens.

 

From what I found to read there are multiple weather patterns associated with SW droughts. Some of them influenced more by GHG than others and the value of knowing there was a drought w/o actually knowing what caused it isn't very helpful.

With respect to is it going to get wetter or drier this is skewed by temperatures. Warmer air can hold much more moisture, and Antartica is alot drier than Sahara in that sense.

 

While looking for something else, I came across:

Climate Program Office > Climate Programs > Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections > MAPP Task Forces > Drought Task Force > California Drought

California statewide precipitation during the last three winters (November-April 2011/2012 through 2013/2014) ranked the second lowest since official measurements began in 1895. Only the consecutive three-year period of 1974/1975 through 1976/1977 was drier. As one critical indication of the cumulative and growing impact of this drought, the September 2014 assessment of statewide water storage was only about 50% of average for this time of year, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Water supply depletion has not resulted from the lack of precipitation alone, but also from very high temperatures with the 2013/2014 winter being the state’s warmest on record.
. . .
What factors caused the California Drought?​

• Weather conditions were key to explaining the event - a high pressure ridge off the West Coast diverted the track of storms during all three winters, typical of historical droughts.
• West Coast high pressure was rendered more likely during 2011-14 by effects of sea surface temperature patterns over the world oceans.
• The drought's first year (2011/2012) was likely the most predictable, when La Nina effects largely explained high pressure off the West Coast, though simulations indicate that high pressure continued to be favored due to ocean effects in 2012-14.

There is a 42 page full report, summary, and FAQ with enough for everyone. "Natural climate variability" shows up as well as "human-induced climate change":

1. What are the main findings in this report?

The severe drought in California over the last 3 years (2011-14) is primarily due to natural climate variability, key features of which appear to be predictable from knowledge of how California precipitation reacts to tropical ocean temperatures. There has been no long-term trend in California precipitation; however, California temperatures have been rising and record high temperatures during the drought were likely made more extreme due to human-induced climate change.​

The only thing that seems more hopeful than empirical are the expectations the current El Nino will bring back the winter rains. Yet the current, relatively warmer coastal waters weren't really addressed. Looks like we're in for some 'reality training.'

Bob Wilson

 

Bob's post #154 pretty much covers how ghg made this drought more severe, and wetter at the same time. Additional evaporation due to warmer winter temperatures, earlier snow melt worsened the water shortage. At the same time, the amount of atmospheric moisture had increased. The increase in temperature from 10C to 12C will increase air moisture carrying capacity by 13%: READY Tools - Moisture Calculator

Many high passes have been opened month earlier then in pre-drought years. Here is information on Tioga pass open dates and snow pack: Tioga and Glacier Point Roads Opening & Closing Dates - Yosemite National Park (U.S. National Park Service)

 

Yay us:

California drought: Water use 'down by 31.3% in July' - BBC News

Cities in California cut water use by 31.3% in July, exceeding a state-wide mandate of 25% to combat a record four-year drought there, officials say.