Featured Hybrid Dashboard Summary: June 2015

First half of the year looks pretty bad. I'm hoping for a recovery next year with the gen IV Prius and some other updates

January -June hybrids (first half)
2012 - 217,688
2013 - 257,820, +18.4%
2014 - 232,768, -9.7%
2015 - 190,970, -18.8%

 

I counted about 80 distinct alt fuel vehicles on the chart and the combined take rates are 4%. There are about 275 models of all vehicles sold in US. Seems most alt fuel vehicle models might fall into the 'sales flop' category. Oh that's right, they are alternative vehicles many of which a few people want, some of which a modest number want and a couple models a lot of people want.

 

We have very few models made exclusively for hybrid.
prius liftback/v
prius c
ct200h
honda insight
honda cr/v

And that is it. The c-max is a european tall car designed for gas first. I would say the prius liftback/v, the prius c, and the lexus ct200h are successful the insight and cr-v a flop.


We look down and we get
camry
fusion
sonat
c-max
accord
avalon
optima

and all of those are very success cars in the US. The c-max if you count european and energi sales is also very sucessful. With lower gas prices people are buying the gasoline version in higher percentages over the hybrid.

The big driver though is the liftback which is an old design. Its hard to look at these poor numbers without adjusting for the prius needing an update, and it will get one this year.

Likewise the designed for plug status cars are doing well for initial adopter cars.
Porsche 918 limited production to 918 and priced at over $600,000 a copy with options sold out every one.
bmw i8 is killing it for a new sports car. They can't make enough at $137K a pop.
tesla's stock just popped again on better than expected sales in the quarter of over 11,000. That is killer for a car that starts at $70K
The bmw i3 should hit 20,000 cars next year, enough to be profitable. Pretty great for a funky carbon fiber 4 seater.

The volt and leaf are the disappointments, not doing as well as expected, but there is a bright spot. The volt gets a great redesign this year. The leaf more range as an option, and a redesign next year. Neither is a flop. Both companies just got a little wrong but falling battery prices and market knowledge should help.

The ford energis do well for being derivitives of their gas cars.

The prius phv under performed like the leaf and volt. I would say this is the flop catagory, but I'm hoping there is a good redesign next year.

 

First half is over, so that's an exciting data point, but we don't get California % sales until about August 15th from CNCDA.org. So far the trends have been pointing to higher and higher % sales in Ca. for example hybrids reaching over 30% in Ca. which is remarkable and plug-ins heading over 50%.

 

I would think the US oil consumption would be more important than california. California has
1) Higher taxas for oil and diesel
2) Better commutes for hybrids
3) higher incentives for plug-ins

Its a very important place for hybrids and plug-ins but national number are more important for the country. Future is more important than the past. I hope the redesigns of plug-ins and hybrids get them out of this small market share position.

If we eliminate light trucks (pick ups, suvs, crossovers, minivans) I see 4.6%penetration for hybrid. The light truck market doesn't really kick into cafe until 2020. Here perhaps plug-ins get high penetration at the high end. A small turbo v6 phev, might give both better towing and acceleration than a v8 but much better city and highway mileage too in charge sustain mode.

 

Crazy, very crazy that Tesla is up there in 3rd when it's 3x as much as a Prius. How many of those can get bought considering I would say only the top 1% (maybe 5%) can afford them...

 

...I think you may be confusing Prius owners with Lake Wobegon residents

 

Top 10% of incomes was $114,000/year easily enough to buy a tesla. Many lower than this have wealth instead of income to buy a model S. Those that can afford the model S of course is much higher than 10% of the new car buyers. The lowest 50% made $33,000 or less, that is lower than the cut off of new prius buyers, but some do buy new cars.

The Luxury market was 9.6% of car sales last year. Toyota/Lexus has gone after this with hybrids - the ESh, RXh, ISh, GSh, LSh avalon hybrid. These hybrids don't do as well in Luxury market as the plug-ins. Tesla plans a more affordable car (model 3) to be made in volume in 2018 which should be less expensive than all those lexus hybrids when home charger installation and fuel are considered. That model 3 should be affordable to the top 30% of the new car market (but just because you can afford it doesn't mean you want to buy it).

Gen IV prius is a totaly different market, but should attract high income and weath individuals as well, but these are not luxury buyers.

 

June 2015 Japan Ranking!
#1 Aqua - 18,087
#2 Corolla - 13,542
#3 Prius - 10,921
#4 Fit - 10,750
#5 Voxy Toyota - 9,052

 

10 Ways Internal Combustion Vehicles Are Getting Cleaner And Greener - HybridCars.com

Very good chance I may be out of the electrified car game within a year, and not necessarily because I want to get out. It's because I've yet to see a really good all-around, affordable electrified car. These days one needs to be willing to pay more for an electrified car while compromising on trunk / cargo space, or put up with Toyota's 'Japanese sized' seats for example (Camry, Prius)

Not surprised so many buy trucks and SUVs, CUVs because many buyers like roomier vehicles fit for bigger, taller people and easier ingress, egress.

 

agreed, and at 3 bucks a gallon, it's all very affordable.

alt fuel vehicles are a sacrifice made for current and future generations. not much external appreciation for that. you need your own internal justifications.

 

As Austin mentioned, the luxury car market is quite sizable, and the Tesla is not limited to the top 1% or even 5%.

Other than price, there are no sacrifices when buying an EV as opposed to a hybrid.
For this reason, plugins as a group will continue to grow. I believe they will surpass the hybrid market share. If gas spikes, hybrids may keep a larger market share than plugins, but they will not hold that, simply because people who don't give a damn about energy efficiency or gas are buying plugins as well.

 

...furthermore, petroleum prices are crashing as we speak with media outlets talking $1 "handle" on pump price by Xmas.

Several months ago I predicted here we might see as low as $1.00 in some states by Feb_2016 and suddenly looks like I have a shot at it. I am not hoping for this, just being realistically pessimistic. Maybe I am a little too extreme, but I fear not. Look at nat gas price to see the new energy paradigm we are experiencing.

 

1. There are hybrid turbochargers. These are an electric supercharger, exhaust turbine generator, and a battery. The impediment to them and other systems of getting electricity from the waste heat of a car is cost at the moment. It might become possible in the future, but isn't being put into play yet.
   
2. This is a very mild hybrid, which is why the article likely skipped it.
3. There was talk of going to a 48 volt system with the increasing draw of car accessories, but those accessories got efficient enough for the 12 volt system. Some mild hybrid systems coming out are 48 volt, so it may come up again.
4. Yep, something the article missed. Nearly every model out there uses electric power steering, or likely will on the next redesign. With increase use of start/stop systems, ICE cars will start shifting to electric AC compressors. The gen3 ICE already uses a direct drive coolant pump. I haven't checked, but it is a good bet other manufacturers are doing the same with their newer engine designs.

 

nice bob. your number 2) is included in their #5 Stop-start systems.

Your #1, I have no idea. Does it save much energy?

Number 3 really doesn't matter much unless you have electric AC (4). EPS is already in most new cars, and if you include maintenance is less expensive along with more efficient. Its problem is "feel" but porsche and bmw are on it, and tech trickles down, which means feel may get better than hydraulic soon (less expensive, more reliable, and performs better). Electric AC though is more expensive which is part of the premium for hybrids and plug-ins. As that price premium drops, absolutely 2,3,and 4 all go with start-stop, hybrids, and phevs (all are stop stop systems).

Prices of both high voltage batteries (lithium) and electric AC will fall as manufacturers aim to meet the 2025 emissions. That means a higher percentage of cars in the US will be doing all those things.

 

I can't help but wonder how the hybrid cars that we can't buy in NA would sell. I'm thinking of the hybrid Fit especially and the hybrid Mazdas also. How would the 10th gen Honda Civic hybrid (with the scaled-down 2-motor Accord drivetrain) sell? I suppose we'll never know since it was cancelled.