Arctic Sea ice 2015

Thanks,

In effect, the geothermal melted water at the base works like greasing a pig . . . making it easier for the glacier to slip into the sea . . . a natural 'slip and slide.' But there are multiple ways Antarctica can lose ice:

• reduced precipitation
• dry air sublimation
• surface melting
• glacier flows to the sea
• warm sea currents undermining glaciers

Each plays a role but there is an interesting aspect of orbital mechanics:

1. Southern 'summer' is ~3 days shorter than Northern 'summer', -1.6% shorter
2. Southern solar light is ~3.5% brighter in the 'summer'

I've got to put together a quick model but this goes part of the way to explain why Antarctica is so much colder. Then add to that the vastly different CO{2} levels found over the Southern hemisphere versus the industrialized Northern hemisphere and we have an Apples vs Oranges situation. Antarctica is distinctly different from the Arctic and OCO-2 shows that CO{2} levels are not the same.

Bob Wilson

 

A while back, we worked up the math for just volcanic melting: Global Air Temps | Page 5 | PriusChat

We are on the same sheet of paper:

This is an area where climate models can provide insights but they also need field observations to 'tweak' the unknowns.

Bob Wilson

 

It looks like the Arctic break-up is happening this week:


Source: Daily AMSR2 sea ice maps

Right now, it looks like the NorthWest passage will open first. BTW, that sliver of ice on the North Alaska shore follows:

• Islands (west to east): Cross, McClure, Stockton, Maguire, Flaxman
• River outlets: Stanies Canning - probably the fresh water makes harder ice

Bob Wilson

 

I am used to the density scale. The light yellows are where mixed density and broken ice exists. The cracks reduce albedo significantly. Add wind blowing to open water and things change quickly. The Russia site has winds and air pressure.

 

Wow! I forgot that some of my graphic links are to 'live data.' <GRINS>

Apparently not everyone got 'liar liar' mojo's memo that there will be no Arctic passage this year:
Source: Chinese Merchant Ship Launches First Two-way Arctic Voyage

Chinese Merchant Ship Launches First Two-way Arctic Voyage
2015-07-10 20:33:29 CRIENGLISH.com Web Editor: Mao

Chinese merchant ship "Yong Sheng" has launched its first two-way Arctic voyage from Dalian, northeast China's Liaoning Province. Yong Sheng is a multipurpose ship loaded with nearly 10-thousand tons of export rolled steel products. It plans to enter the Bering Strait in early August, and arrive in Denmark at around mid-August, before returning to China in October. ​

Bob Wilson

 

Looking at the color scale, I can understand the problem. Typically I like my colors to range the spectrum and density. I would have been much happier with 'gray scale' being used for land and snow-covered land. But it is what it is. I'm just used to it having studied it for several years.

Interesting to me is how the western shore of Greenland rapidly became ice free and it looks like major fjords on the east shore are also losing their sea ice. Such melting/migration leads to faster ice flows into the sea.

The other curious blob is that chunk of sea ice North of Alaska. If the broken areas continue, it could be one heck of a floating ice shelf knocking around the Arctic.

Bob Wilson

 

Last night, I took a longer look at the webcams at the North pole:
Arctic theme page - North Pole Web Cam

These are a set of instrumented buoys anchored over the North pole and we can get current snapshots of what is and has been going on. What attracted my attention was this screen shot:

That splotch on the right edge is a pool of melt water. The webcam animations: 'small' is .avi and 'large' is .mov. You can watch the melt water pools form on the sea ice and grow:


What made this especially interesting is the EU Cryosat-2 uses radar sounding to report ice volume. But they suspended operation over the Arctic in May because these surface pools scramble the data. It is really hard to detect the surface ice and underlying sea water if there is a cover of melt water on top of the ice. So Arctic sea ice inventories are suspended until the cold weather returns to freeze these surface pool.

BTW, it looks like we may see both the Northeast and Northwest passage open this season. The Russians have started a significant ice-breaker build that should see new ships, including a nuclear one and several smaller diesels, by 2020. Meanwhile, the USA and Canada are operating some very old, ice breakers that should have been replaced a decade ago.

Bob Wilson

 

I was looking at one of Arctic ice sources today on an iPhone and noticed a curious artifact. Here I've expanded that section like the iPhone zoom function:

Straight lines and precise, angle turns are the signature of man. This looks like the track of a Russian ice breaker through the last ice section connecting the Arctic shore to the floating sea ice. If so, the Northeast passage is open to shipping. But I suspect even this little section will be gone within a week.

Bob Wilson

 

Yes if you are patient. Their 'daily' log discusses the previous month but has a couple of current charts. Just I don't find their data and charts all that helpful for what is currently going on. However it is complimented by the Danish site.

My current favorites are:

• Daily AMSR2 sea ice maps - a German site because it has sea ice density with both false color and a 'white and black line crack' images. This one gives predictive information of what is likely to happen over the next couple of days.
  
• NSR - Ice Concentration | Northern Sea Route Information Office - a Russian site, it does not have the high resolution of the German site but it does include basic weather data including air pressure and wind direction. Winds off of the land mass tends to accelerate sea ice melting and can concentrate floating sea ice to change the concentration. Air pressure helps predict what will happen in the next 24 hours.

An ideal, Arctic site would include:

• German Arctic ice daily images
  • improve the false color scale
• Weather over Arctic and equal distant land
  • winds
  • pressure
  • temperature
  • precipitation
• Ship following transponders
  • include ship based, weather observations
• Links to webcams

In effect, parts of all of the site identified in the first post of this thread.

Bob Wilson

 

Found a Canadian Ice web site that provides a lot of detail missing from the others although some is delayed:

For example, I'd noticed the ice cover of Hudson Bay had concentrated on the eastern shore. The Canadian images provide a lot high resolution and context. For example, I was not aware of the islands found just off the eastern shore. We've also seen some the north shore islands of Alaska are also anchoring ice this year. The only problem is some images are a little delayed, today is July 25 and the image is July 17-20.

Apparently this shifted ice is giving some of the denier press a lot of fun as the Canadians shift their ice breakers around. But this is just the usual "Oh it is snowing outside my window so Al Gore was wrong." nonsense.

Bob Wilson

 

The Northeast passage (aka., Russian side) appears to be open to shipping. That ice breaker trick earlier this week worked well.

The Northwest passage remains closed especially because neither the Canadians nor USA have made a significant investment in ice breakers. Too early to tell if the last blockage will melt out this year.

Now to watch the ship traffic:
Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic

Found another: IVAN ZHDANOV, destination St. Petersberg (RU NEV)

Bob Wilson