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Toyota negative on batteries because it has more experience than other others on them

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by Ashlem, Jul 22, 2015.

  1. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    so he is arguing for the present, and toyota for the future.
     
  2. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Toyota has a plan and know the breakthroughs in the pipeline.

    Musk has all the eggs in EV basket. He may be arguing of the past since he may not be aware of technologies in Mirai.
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    no doubt there are technologies in the lab that no one but toyota is privy too. they may not be ready, or even viable yet, but that's their best prognostication for the future.
     
  4. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    It's amusing to stand back and watch the (plug-in crowd = anti-fuel cell crowd), a very small but loud group, slightly opiniated.:) Let's post the billboard once again!
    [​IMG]
    Toyota 2015 USA 6 MONTH YTD * 1,231,440
     
  5. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    Again No. Starting with Edison and Westinghouse, the government tried to regulate and control the monopolies of the utilities building all the plants and supporting grid. The problem was the utilities building and monopolizing the grid. Taxpayer money was not involved at all. The TVA would be a limited exception to this, but this is simply a case of the government nationalizing the entire industry in a limited area of power plants and the grid. The General Electrics and Westinghouses of the US did all the financing and building of the grid with no taxpayer support.

    History of Electrification Sites

    There are quite a few good books detailing the sometimes corrupt practices of big corporations making money building and monopolizing grid.

    Good question. Maybe industry manipulation?


    That is only half the story. The other half is CARB established the rules allowing it. Tesla was only guilty of following the rules.
     
  6. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Seems to me the idea was to give USA a competitive advantage on plug-in technology, whereas Toyota had the hybrid arena locked up. The basic goal was encouragement of electrification, not specifically to reduce CO2 emissions. Trying to sell maximum numbers of electric vehicles on the theory, the more we sell, the more the price comes down, if the issue is critical mass.

    Back in the Bush II era, this was the one bill I wrote to my Senator to oppose, although it was the alternate fuels provisions (not the EV) that I felt was particularly doomed. My senator (now Presidential Candidate Jim Webb) wrote back to me to say that I was all wrong because switchgrass was going save Virginia's farming economy. I thought it was a nutty response from him, but I had never heard of switchgrass, so I learned something. Of course, Obama then extended the bill as part of the emergency economic recovery plan, and that was pretty much no discussion.
     
    #206 wjtracy, Jul 27, 2015
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  7. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    And what, technically did he say that wasn't true?
    We don't know the cost of the Mirai, but my guess is that Toyota would have announced it if the Mirai was being sold at a price that nets them some profit. Again, we don't know the cost. If the FCEV was less costly than the BEV, we still have to consider the fuel cost to call what Musk said on the subject BS.
    Hydrogen FCEVs do need a cost intensive distribution system. Far more than what Tesla, and its customers, spent on Superchargers. Building out networks of other fast DC chargers should cost about same. "You have to include the costs of building and upgrading the grid." No, I don't. Electricity has a myarid of uses; the grid's existence isn't to solely support BEVs. A hydrogen infrastructure, on the other hand, is solely to support cars. It likely isn't going to see use in power tools like gasoline does because of the techincalities involved in filling; no one is going to drive their entire lawnmower down to the hydrogen station to top it off. But we can include the cost of the grid for charging stations. That just means it is also counted for hydrogen stations since they need electricity to run the lights, the dispensers, the compressors, and the chillers.
    I think "posing serious dangers" is a bit hyperbolic, and I believe the FCEV industry took meaningful steps to reduce the dangers of a hydrogen leak. It is still a flammable gas though, and a leak inside a garage is worse in terms of danger potential than a shorting BEV battery. Those that don't think so should store their 20lb propane tanks in their garage; if they don't, why not?
    People choosing not to make use of the faster fueling wasn't Tesla's fault. They offered a faster method that CARB though no BEV would meet the requirements of, but as pointed out elsewhere, people would likely be willing to wait 20 minutes for 'free' gasoline. I've seen them wait in line to save a penny per gallon over crossing the street to an empty station.
    Is CARB going to repeal the credits that a FCEV gets for fast refueling if the nearest hydrogen station takes over 5 minutes to fill their car?


    Because the subject will come down to politics, I started a thread in the Politics forum. The link is in my signature.
    That said, the credits have helped in regards to battery costs. The gen2 Volt has a starting price of nearly $10k less than the gen1's initial one while having longer EV range. I know that isn't all because of the battery cost, but I don't think GM, Nissan, Ford, or Tesla would be planning on a @200 mile BEV if the batteries were going to push the price back up into the "that's too expensive" range.
     
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  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    really? Might want to check your facts - unless you just made that up to sound funny. Model S is releasing their 90kWh version, with an epa of ~300 miles .... unlike Toyota's natural gas powered FC, which has to turn back at mile 150 - as it'll be out of natural gas manufactured hydrogen refuel range. Maybe Toyota's FC car needs a bigger tank. Oh wait, it's already down to only seating 4. Sorry. Interior space? ..... um, Tesla seats 7 .... Charging cable? Bundle of power lines? Um, Tesla has a new water cooled super charger cable that's actually no thicker than my puny Aerovironment 40amp EVSE. So heavy? - that it's impractical? really? 0-60mph in 3 seconds says otherwise. What is that 3 seconds .... 4x quicker than Toyota's natural gas/hydrogen car? ... or only 3x quicker. Duno - but that EV doesn't seem too impractical. Maybe it's just me ......
    wait a minute we ALL are aware of Mirai tech - not just Musk - remember? one of Toyota's mouth pieces recently stated it may not be ready for 100 years. So, why would Musk want ANY of his eggs in the natural gas/hydrogen / never quite ready for prime time car. That's not really meant to bash Toyota's experiment - though Toyota's dishonesty is certainly worthy of being called out.
    .
     
    #208 hill, Jul 28, 2015
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  9. RogerHq

    RogerHq Junior Member

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    AFAIK the natural gas transformation to Hydrogen is an established technology. So if U want a fast transition to FCVs it could be used for a limited time until non fossil fuel systems are completely developed.
     
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    No more technically established than any other fossil fuel cracking. Just cheaper, at least for now.

    As it stands, the only thing that will hasten the transition from fossil fuel to clean energy for hydrogen production is when clean energy electrolysis is cheaper than the competing fossil fuel cracking. I'm not sure that is even on the horizon, let alone near term. And you would still have to explain why to not use the clean energy directly in an EV rather than suffer conversion and transport losses in an as yet unbuilt but VERY expensive infrastructure.

    For what it is worth, I think Europeans should be much more skeptical of the Hydrogen FCV rather than EV argument than N. Americans because they already have enough sense to use trains for long trips. For them the "have to have 300 - 400 miles per refuel" is something of a canard. If you tend to my view of:
    1. Walk or bike short trips
    2. EV for trips under 100 miles
    3. Fossil fuel Rental for the rare 100 - 200 mile trip when Rail does not work out
    4. Rail or plane for long distance,
    Then HFCV investment is far from an obvious good choice. Hydrogen as a storage fuel for the grid may be a good idea, and perhaps it can trickle down from there.
     
    #210 SageBrush, Jul 28, 2015
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  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    At six months, all the plug ins available today sold about half the number of cars Toyota sells in the US per year. One is sold in California only. Another in three states, that may become four soon. Then a couple others are in the midst of a slow rollout to the nation.

    So they are doing quite well for a niche product that are just golf carts or toys for the rich. Was that your point?

    How about we look at Hyundai's FCEV numbers; the newest one that has been on the market. As of May, they 'sold' 273...since release in 2013...globally. It is around 70 in the US. Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell Global Sales Below Target, Company Admits
    To come to hydrogen's defense, some of the renewable methods being developed don't depend upon renewable electric. The photolysis catalysts cut out the middle man of converting sunlight into electricity for electrolysis. Then there is fermentation organisms that release hydrogen directly as a by product. Even if renewable electric is used, it can be used at times of oversupply; the plug in needs to be plugged in at those times to use the electric more efficiently.

    My anti-FCEV bias and non-critical thinking has counters to them, but I've mentioned them before.
    I think the European country mostly pushing FCEVs is Germany, which has a strong driver culture. They'd rather keep the speed limits up on the Autobahn than prevent damage to their beloved Black Forest.
     
  12. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Yes, I should have said hydrolysis rather than electrolysis specifically.

    Typo I presume ;)
     
  13. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Re: Home H2
    This guy (Mike Strizki) in NJ has an H2/solar/geothermal house, all over the place on YouTube:
    Hydrogen House Project: The Hydrogen House - Hydrogen House Project

    He says he uses a FuelMaker brand compressor at home to get up to 5000 psig H2 in his H2 car. FuelMaker was the Canadian brand that Honda used for the CNG Civic home compressor (which apparently has not been as reliable as hoped). Meanwhile he has a small tank farm in his backyard to store the H2 - not too great.

    Somewhere I think it says it cost Strizki half a million for the house, but that's not bad, I am thinking the solar/H2/geothermal system was half a million, not the whole house.

    PS- Strizki repeatedly stresses how much safer H2 is to work with compared to hydrodcarbons because it just quickly dissipates upwards. He says this is well documented, but I am not aware of it. He is a bit of a non-scientific mechanical tinkerer but quite industrious as far as tinkering.
     
    #213 wjtracy, Jul 28, 2015
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  14. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

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    I quickly skimmed se of the the hydrogen house website. I didn't see any $$ spreadsheets or estimates.

    I'm guessing it would be far more cost effective and low-maintenance today to build an all-electric house and drive an electric car and motorcycle. Same goes for the boat.
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    My understanding the main issue with the home CNG filler was that water could get into the output, which would corrode the Civic CNG's fuel system. They also had a pricy maintenance schedule of replacing gaskets and membranes.

    "Strizki repeatedly stresses how much safer H2 is to work with compared to hydrodcarbons because it just quickly dissipates upwards. He says this is well documented, but I am not aware of it. He is a bit of a non-scientific mechanical tinkerer but quite industrious as far as tinkering."
    Does this apply to enclosed places like garages? I agree denser gases are more dangerous because they can pool.

    I don't think I'd want to grill with hydrogen; too cool a flame. Perhaps for smoking.

    A fuel cell to power the house for off grid installs would be interesting.
     
  16. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I saw his house on 60 minutes years ago. I absolutely love and applaud his innovation!
    It is a great way to store excess solar energy.
    There are other great ways to do it as well that will not take up your back yard. However, this is, none the less, a really cool way to do it,
    And as long as he doesn't need to travel further than 50-75 miles from home, it works great.
     
  17. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    I haven't heard that was a goal of the auto industry . . . . making a fast transition off fuel cell's natural gas. Did they say it is their goal? Because that'd be great if it's true. I didn't realize the auto industry had 'truth' & the public's best interest as their primary objective.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    maybe not . . . . . .
    .
     
    #217 hill, Jul 28, 2015
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  18. RogerHq

    RogerHq Junior Member

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    Well, sounds like we have to look even closer at FCVs ;-)

    Did some H2-reseach: Liquid H2 has a 0.07 density figure.
    That,s very low but I guess it comes from their lack of neutrons and just one proton
     
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  19. RogerHq

    RogerHq Junior Member

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    True, it's how U used to produce rocket fuel for the deceased space shuttle I guess ;-)

    And I appreciate your commitment to decode my lousy grammar/syntax so my intended message comes out crisp, bright&clear, Hill !
     
    #219 RogerHq, Jul 28, 2015
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  20. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    They went from feeding horses multiple times a day to gassing up once a week. They ain't going back to plug and unplug daily. I plug mine in everyday and don't mind. I do mind when I forget to plug it in. However, when your life is busy with a baby, it becomes an extra chore, wishing to just open the door (with smartkey), put baby in the seat and drive off.

    The net effect is of the grid (entire system), not yours. Unless you can show you have direct consumption from the wind, all you have is average grid footprint. For example, with my PV system, I consume 257 kWh directly from the panels and 262 kWh were pulled from the grid.

    How about plugin lobby putting out false characterization that FCVs are a waste of money and keep increasing battery spending?

    We know both technologies are better than a regular non-hybrid, even gas-electric hybrids. Let's not drag each other down, but help each other raise up. Both tech has it's own advantages and disadvantages. Both have common goals to displace fossil fuel with renewable and reduce emission.
     
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